2007 Annual Report of the SSI Program

IV. ESTIMATES OF PROGRAM PARTICIPATION AND FEDERAL EXPENDITURES UNDER THE SUPPLEMENTAL SECURITY INCOME PROGRAM

B. NUMBERS OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE SSI PROGRAM

This section presents projections of the numbers of persons receiving Federal SSI payments by category and age group.¹ SSI recipients are categorized as (1) aged or (2) blind or disabled. The following paragraphs discuss the age groupings and recipient categories in more detail.

Table IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI benefits, by calendar year of application. Figure IV.B1 presents the same information in graphical form. Recent historical data indicate that applications have grown fairly rapidly beginning in calendar year 2002, and that this growth continued through calendar year 2005. The rate of growth in applications, however, slowed significantly in 2005, and for the 2006 Annual Report we projected a slight decline in the numbers of applications for calendar year 2006. The actual result for 2006 represented a slightly larger decline than was estimated last year, with the numbers of applications for 2006 coming in 0.3 percent lower than was estimated in the 2006 Annual Report.

1 Based on data reported in the Integrated Workload Management System (formerly known as the District Office Workload Report).

2 "All" column estimated by the Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics using a 10-percent sample and published in the SSI Annual Statistical Report.

3 Includes conversions from State programs and applications received in 1973.

4 Estimated totals revised from prior SSI Annual Reports.

5 Fewer than 500.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.

Figure IV.B1.—SSI Federally-Administered Applications by Age Group, Calendar Years 1975-2035

[In thousands]

[D]

The fairly rapid growth in applications from 2002 to 2004 was largely attributable to two main factors: (1) the downturn in the economy that began early in 2001 and (2) the signature proxy process³ introduced by SSA in June 2004. The slower growth in 2005 and the slight decline in the numbers of applications in 2006 suggest that the growth from these two factors has come to an end. In the short term, our projections are for the numbers of applications to stay roughly level, with the overall level of applications reflecting a permanent upward shift due to the signature proxy process. In the longer term, applications are estimated to grow roughly in line with overall population growth.

The adjudication of these applications involves an evaluation of levels of income and resources available to the applicants, as well as other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, over 90 percent of the applications are for disability benefits which generally require an evaluation of an alleged impairment by the appropriate State Disability Determination Services. An unfavorable disability determination may then be appealed by the applicant through several administrative levels of appeal. If all administrative levels of appeal are exhausted, the applicant may in turn carry his/her appeal to the Federal courts. Data on recent historical experience for this disability decision process are presented in section V.C.

Table IV.B2 and figure IV.B2 present historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process. Individuals are counted as of the first month that they move into SSI payment status. For this reason, we refer to these individuals as "new recipients" rather than "awards."⁴ During the 2002 to 2004 period, growth in new recipients did not keep pace with the growth in applications. In both 2005 and 2006, the numbers of new recipients declined even though there was some growth in the applications in 2005. There are two important contributing factors to the slower growth for