CATEGORY: COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Increase the cost of living adjustment: Base it on the CPI-E

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2050

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 83% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 85% 0% 100%
Male 0% 82% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 79% 0% 100%
White 0% 85% 0% 100%
Black 0% 83% 0% 100%
Other 0% 84% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 83% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 83% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 45% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 99% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 82% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 83% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 95% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 75% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 86% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 86% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 83% 0% 100%
High School 0% 82% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 77% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 84% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 78% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 84% 0% 100%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 81% 0% 100%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 82% 0% 100%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 84% 0% 100%
$0-$33,157 0% 85% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 82% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 92% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 89% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 63% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 100% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 100% 0% 100%
Male 0% 100% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 100% 0% 100%
White 0% 100% 0% 100%
Black 0% 100% 0% 100%
Other 0% 100% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 100% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 100% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 100% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 100% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 100% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 100% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 100% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 100% 0% 100%
High School 0% 100% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 100% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 100% 0% 100%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 100% 0% 100%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$33,157 0% 100% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 100% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 100% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 0% 49% 0% 58%
Sex
Female 0% 54% 0% 63%
Male 0% 0% 43% 0% 53%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 46% 0% 58%
White 0% 0% 50% 0% 58%
Black 0% 55% 0% 66%
Other 0% 0% 42% 0% 0% 49%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 50% 0% 59%
Foreign 0% 0% 46% 0% 55%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 18% 0% 0% 36%
70-79 0% 51% 0% 51%
80-89 0% 74% 0% 74%
90+ 0% 75% 0% 75%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 45% 0% 53%
Divorced 0% 50% 0% 61%
Widowed 0% 67% 0% 70%
Never Married 0% 0% 41% 0% 55%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 38% 0% 0% 44%
Bachelor 0% 0% 45% 0% 52%
Associate 0% 53% 0% 63%
High School 0% 54% 0% 65%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 48% 0% 61%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 49% 0% 57%
In poverty 0% 62% 0% 79%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 7%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% 39%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 55% 0% 66%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 73% 0% 85%
$0-$33,157 0% 80% 0% 93%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 46% 0% 55%
Widow(er) 0% 69% 0% 75%
Spouse 0% 0% 48% 0% 54%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 36% 0% 55%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 97% 0% 97%
Sex
Female 0% 97% 0% 97%
Male 0% 97% 0% 97%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 97% 0% 98%
White 0% 97% 0% 97%
Black 1% 97% 1% 98%
Other 0% 95% 0% 96%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 97% 0% 98%
Foreign 0% 96% 0% 96%
Age
60-69 0% 96% 0% 97%
70-79 0% 98% 0% 98%
80-89 0% 98% 0% 98%
90+ 0% 96% 0% 96%
Marital Status
Married 0% 97% 0% 98%
Divorced 0% 97% 0% 98%
Widowed 0% 97% 0% 97%
Never Married 1% 96% 1% 96%
Education
Graduate 0% 96% 0% 96%
Bachelor 0% 97% 0% 98%
Associate 0% 98% 0% 98%
High School 0% 97% 0% 98%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 95% 0% 96%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 97% 0% 98%
In poverty 4% 84% 5% 83%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 89% 0% 90%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 99% 0% 100%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 100% 0% 100%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$33,157 1% 97% 1% 97%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 97% 0% 98%
Widow(er) 0% 97% 0% 98%
Spouse 0% 96% 0% 96%
Disabled worker 0% 97% 1% 97%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 3.5% 3.2% -0.3% -238
Sex
Female 4.2% 3.9% -0.3% -154
Male 2.7% 2.5% -0.2% -83
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 5.0% 4.6% -0.4% -68
White 2.4% 2.2% -0.2% -107
Black 6.7% 6.1% -0.5% -49
Other 4.1% 3.9% -0.2% -13
Country of Birth
U.S. 2.8% 2.6% -0.2% -151
Foreign 5.9% 5.5% -0.4% -86
Age
60-69 4.4% 4.3% -0.1% -33
70-79 3.1% 2.9% -0.3% -84
80-89 3.2% 2.7% -0.4% -89
90+ 2.9% 2.5% -0.4% -30
Marital Status
Married 1.3% 1.2% -0.1% -35
Divorced 5.2% 4.8% -0.4% -64
Widowed 3.9% 3.4% -0.5% -82
Never Married 9.6% 9.1% -0.5% -54
Education
Graduate 1.3% 1.2% -0.1% -10
Bachelor 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -23
Associate 2.6% 2.4% -0.2% -42
High School 5.0% 4.6% -0.4% -115
Less than 12 Yrs 8.8% 8.2% -0.6% -45
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 92.2% -7.8% -238
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -2
$103,985 - $200,444 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -2
$60,527 - $103,985 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -1
$33,157 - $60,527 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% -8
$0-$33,157 16.7% 15.4% -1.3% -223
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 3.5% 3.3% -0.2% -144
Widow(er) 3.1% 2.6% -0.5% -63
Spouse 3.3% 3.0% -0.3% -17
Disabled worker 5.5% 5.2% -0.3% -12
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Payable Option Change
Total 7.0% 3.2% -3.8% -3,288
Sex
Female 8.2% 3.9% -4.3% -2,005
Male 5.6% 2.5% -3.1% -1,282
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 9.4% 4.6% -4.8% -777
White 5.2% 2.2% -2.9% -1,599
Black 13.0% 6.1% -6.9% -656
Other 7.4% 3.9% -3.5% -254
Country of Birth
U.S. 6.1% 2.6% -3.6% -2,413
Foreign 9.9% 5.5% -4.4% -874
Age
60-69 8.1% 4.3% -3.8% -979
70-79 6.6% 2.9% -3.7% -1,197
80-89 6.6% 2.7% -3.8% -842
90+ 6.0% 2.5% -3.5% -268
Marital Status
Married 2.3% 1.2% -1.2% -524
Divorced 11.0% 4.8% -6.2% -1,039
Widowed 8.6% 3.4% -5.3% -809
Never Married 17.6% 9.1% -8.5% -914
Education
Graduate 2.2% 1.2% -1.0% -112
Bachelor 2.9% 1.3% -1.6% -324
Associate 5.9% 2.4% -3.6% -704
High School 9.8% 4.6% -5.3% -1,507
Less than 12 Yrs 16.2% 8.2% -8.0% -639
Official Poverty
Above poverty 3.6% 0.0% -3.6% -3,050
In poverty 100.0% 92.2% -7.8% -238
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -10
$103,985 - $200,444 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -17
$60,527 - $103,985 0.5% 0.2% -0.3% -52
$33,157 - $60,527 1.2% 0.3% -0.9% -159
$0-$33,157 32.8% 15.4% -17.4% -3,048
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 6.5% 3.3% -3.3% -2,141
Widow(er) 8.1% 2.6% -5.5% -693
Spouse 6.9% 3.0% -3.9% -222
Disabled worker 11.5% 5.2% -6.2% -230
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 87,563 100.0 72,975 100.0 13 100.0 72,962 100.0
Sex
Female 46,454 53.1 39,419 54.0 6 42.3 39,414 54.0
Male 41,108 46.9 33,556 46.0 8 57.7 33,548 46.0
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 18.4 12,642 17.3 2 14.2 12,640 17.3
White 54,725 62.5 46,391 63.6 11 85.8 46,379 63.6
Black 9,521 10.9 7,858 10.8 . . . . . . 7,858 10.8
Other 7,231 8.3 6,084 8.3 . . . . . . 6,084 8.3
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 77.3 56,446 77.4 13 100.0 56,433 77.3
Foreign 19,898 22.7 16,529 22.6 . . . . . . 16,529 22.7
Age
60-69 25,830 29.5 11,569 15.9 10 79.2 11,559 15.8
70-79 32,047 36.6 31,756 43.5 3 20.8 31,753 43.5
80-89 21,891 25.0 21,863 30.0 . . . . . . 21,863 30.0
90+ 7,795 8.9 7,787 10.7 . . . . . . 7,787 10.7
Marital Status
Married 44,755 51.1 36,495 50.0 3 21.2 36,493 50.0
Divorced 16,656 19.0 13,760 18.9 10 78.8 13,750 18.8
Widowed 15,365 17.5 14,646 20.1 . . . . . . 14,646 20.1
Never Married 10,786 12.3 8,073 11.1 . . . . . . 8,073 11.1
Education
Graduate 11,012 12.6 9,514 13.0 3 21.2 9,512 13.0
Bachelor 20,209 23.1 17,420 23.9 8 64.6 17,412 23.9
Associate 19,742 22.5 16,422 22.5 . . . . . . 16,422 22.5
High School 28,574 32.6 23,445 32.1 2 14.2 23,443 32.1
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 9.2 6,174 8.5 . . . . . . 6,174 8.5
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 96.5 70,579 96.7 13 100.0 70,566 96.7
In poverty 3,064 3.5 2,397 3.3 . . . . . . 2,397 3.3
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 20.0 14,756 20.2 . . . . . . 14,756 20.2
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 20.0 14,218 19.5 3 21.2 14,215 19.5
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 20.0 14,367 19.7 . . . . . . 14,367 19.7
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 20.0 14,694 20.1 8 64.6 14,686 20.1
$0-$33,157 17,513 20.0 14,940 20.5 2 14.2 14,938 20.5
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 75.0 54,095 74.1 . . . . . . 54,095 74.1
Widow(er) 12,506 14.3 11,490 15.7 10 78.8 11,479 15.7
Spouse 5,677 6.5 5,056 6.9 3 21.2 5,054 6.9
Disabled worker 3,693 4.2 2,334 3.2 . . . . . . 2,334 3.2
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 87,563 100.0 87,563 100.0 . . . . . . 87,563 100.0
Sex
Female 46,454 53.1 46,454 53.1 . . . . . . 46,454 53.1
Male 41,108 46.9 41,108 46.9 . . . . . . 41,108 46.9
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 18.4 16,087 18.4 . . . . . . 16,087 18.4
White 54,725 62.5 54,725 62.5 . . . . . . 54,725 62.5
Black 9,521 10.9 9,521 10.9 . . . . . . 9,521 10.9
Other 7,231 8.3 7,231 8.3 . . . . . . 7,231 8.3
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 77.3 67,665 77.3 . . . . . . 67,665 77.3
Foreign 19,898 22.7 19,898 22.7 . . . . . . 19,898 22.7
Age
60-69 25,830 29.5 25,830 29.5 . . . . . . 25,830 29.5
70-79 32,047 36.6 32,047 36.6 . . . . . . 32,047 36.6
80-89 21,891 25.0 21,891 25.0 . . . . . . 21,891 25.0
90+ 7,795 8.9 7,795 8.9 . . . . . . 7,795 8.9
Marital Status
Married 44,755 51.1 44,755 51.1 . . . . . . 44,755 51.1
Divorced 16,656 19.0 16,656 19.0 . . . . . . 16,656 19.0
Widowed 15,365 17.5 15,365 17.5 . . . . . . 15,365 17.5
Never Married 10,786 12.3 10,786 12.3 . . . . . . 10,786 12.3
Education
Graduate 11,012 12.6 11,012 12.6 . . . . . . 11,012 12.6
Bachelor 20,209 23.1 20,209 23.1 . . . . . . 20,209 23.1
Associate 19,742 22.5 19,742 22.5 . . . . . . 19,742 22.5
High School 28,574 32.6 28,574 32.6 . . . . . . 28,574 32.6
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 9.2 8,026 9.2 . . . . . . 8,026 9.2
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 96.5 84,498 96.5 . . . . . . 84,498 96.5
In poverty 3,064 3.5 3,064 3.5 . . . . . . 3,064 3.5
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 20.0 17,512 20.0 . . . . . . 17,512 20.0
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 20.0 17,512 20.0 . . . . . . 17,512 20.0
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 20.0 17,514 20.0 . . . . . . 17,514 20.0
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 20.0 17,511 20.0 . . . . . . 17,511 20.0
$0-$33,157 17,513 20.0 17,513 20.0 . . . . . . 17,513 20.0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 75.0 65,687 75.0 . . . . . . 65,687 75.0
Widow(er) 12,506 14.3 12,506 14.3 . . . . . . 12,506 14.3
Spouse 5,677 6.5 5,677 6.5 . . . . . . 5,677 6.5
Disabled worker 3,693 4.2 3,693 4.2 . . . . . . 3,693 4.2
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 87,563 0 87,576
Sex
Female 46,454 0 46,467
Male 41,108 0 0 41,108
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 0 0 16,087
White 54,725 0 54,735
Black 9,521 0 9,523
Other 7,231 0 0 7,231
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 0 67,678
Foreign 19,898 0 0 19,898
Age
60-69 25,830 0 25,842
70-79 32,047 0 0 32,047
80-89 21,891 0 21,892
90+ 7,795 0 0 7,795
Marital Status
Married 44,755 0 44,764
Divorced 16,656 0 16,658
Widowed 15,365 0 0 15,365
Never Married 10,786 0 10,788
Education
Graduate 11,012 0 11,015
Bachelor 20,209 0 20,210
Associate 19,742 0 19,747
High School 28,574 0 28,578
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 0 0 8,026
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 0 84,511
In poverty 3,064 0 0 3,064
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 0 17,517
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 0 17,518
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 0 17,516
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 0 0 17,511
$0-$33,157 17,513 0 0 17,513
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 0 0 65,687
Widow(er) 12,506 0 0 12,506
Spouse 5,677 0 0 5,677
Disabled worker 3,693 0 0 3,693
None 0 0 13
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2050: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 87,563 0 87,576
Sex
Female 46,454 0 46,467
Male 41,108 0 0 41,108
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 0 0 16,087
White 54,725 0 54,735
Black 9,521 0 9,523
Other 7,231 0 0 7,231
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 0 67,678
Foreign 19,898 0 0 19,898
Age
60-69 25,830 0 25,842
70-79 32,047 0 0 32,047
80-89 21,891 0 21,892
90+ 7,795 0 0 7,795
Marital Status
Married 44,755 0 44,764
Divorced 16,656 0 16,658
Widowed 15,365 0 0 15,365
Never Married 10,786 0 10,788
Education
Graduate 11,012 0 11,015
Bachelor 20,209 0 20,210
Associate 19,742 0 19,747
High School 28,574 0 28,578
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 0 0 8,026
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 0 84,511
In poverty 3,064 0 0 3,064
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 0 17,517
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 0 17,518
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 0 17,516
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 0 0 17,511
$0-$33,157 17,513 0 0 17,513
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 0 0 65,687
Widow(er) 12,506 0 0 12,506
Spouse 5,677 0 0 5,677
Disabled worker 3,693 0 0 3,693
None 0 0 13
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.