CATEGORY: COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Increase the cost of living adjustment: Base it on the CPI-E

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 82% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 84% 0% 100%
Male 0% 80% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 72% 0% 100%
White 0% 84% 0% 100%
Black 0% 79% 0% 100%
Other 0% 80% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 83% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 75% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 47% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 99% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 80% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 82% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 91% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 77% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 87% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 82% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 81% 0% 100%
High School 0% 83% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 79% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 82% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 81% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 82% 0% 100%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 81% 0% 100%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 81% 0% 100%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 83% 0% 100%
$0-$30,478 0% 85% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 81% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 90% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 90% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 61% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 0% 37% 0% 0% 44%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 41% 0% 0% 47%
Male 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 40%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 45%
White 0% 0% 37% 0% 0% 43%
Black 0% 0% 43% 0% 53%
Other 0% 0% 34% 0% 0% 42%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 38% 0% 0% 45%
Foreign 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% 42%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 32%
70-79 0% 0% 44% 0% 0% 45%
80-89 0% 53% 0% 53%
90+ 0% 0% 45% 0% 0% 45%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 32% 0% 0% 39%
Divorced 0% 0% 42% 0% 51%
Widowed 0% 0% 46% 0% 51%
Never Married 0% 0% 36% 0% 0% 47%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 27%
Bachelor 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% 33%
Associate 0% 0% 37% 0% 0% 44%
High School 0% 0% 44% 0% 53%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 44% 0% 54%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 36% 0% 0% 43%
In poverty 0% 60% 0% 73%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 14%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 0% 34% 0% 0% 42%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 62% 0% 73%
$0-$30,478 0% 77% 0% 90%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 40%
Widow(er) 0% 54% 0% 59%
Spouse 0% 0% 40% 0% 0% 44%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% 44%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.6% -0.3% -203
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.0% -0.3% -129
Male 4.3% 4.1% -0.2% -73
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.4% -0.4% -30
White 3.5% 3.3% -0.2% -134
Black 9.0% 8.7% -0.3% -19
Other 7.7% 7.3% -0.4% -18
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 3.9% -0.2% -152
Foreign 8.8% 8.3% -0.4% -50
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.6% -0.2% -42
70-79 4.9% 4.6% -0.3% -101
80-89 3.8% 3.4% -0.4% -58
90+ 2.5% 2.4% -0.1% -1
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% -47
Divorced 8.3% 7.7% -0.5% -74
Widowed 5.8% 5.4% -0.4% -51
Never Married 17.0% 16.4% -0.5% -30
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -6
Bachelor 2.2% 2.0% -0.2% -24
Associate 3.6% 3.4% -0.2% -25
High School 6.1% 5.7% -0.4% -106
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.3% -0.6% -39
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 94.4% -5.6% -203
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -2
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.7% -0.1% -9
$0-$30,478 23.0% 21.7% -1.3% -190
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.3% -0.2% -128
Widow(er) 5.0% 4.6% -0.4% -44
Spouse 5.5% 5.2% -0.3% -19
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.1% -0.3% -10
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 60,693 100.0 41 100.0 60,652 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 33,588 55.3 35 86.9 33,552 55.3
Male 33,817 45.8 27,105 44.7 5 13.1 27,100 44.7
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 5,690 9.4 6 15.4 5,684 9.4
White 54,004 73.2 45,482 74.9 23 57.1 45,459 75.0
Black 7,559 10.2 6,008 9.9 10 24.9 5,998 9.9
Other 4,382 5.9 3,512 5.8 1 2.7 3,511 5.8
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 52,088 85.8 29 71.5 52,059 85.8
Foreign 11,438 15.5 8,605 14.2 12 28.5 8,593 14.2
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 11,661 19.2 27 66.9 11,633 19.2
70-79 31,533 42.7 31,288 51.6 13 33.1 31,275 51.6
80-89 14,979 20.3 14,951 24.6 . . . . . . 14,951 24.7
90+ 2,793 3.8 2,793 4.6 . . . . . . 2,793 4.6
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 33,597 55.4 6 14.2 33,591 55.4
Divorced 13,632 18.5 11,193 18.4 26 64.2 11,167 18.4
Widowed 12,828 17.4 11,629 19.2 9 21.6 11,620 19.2
Never Married 5,566 7.5 4,273 7.0 . . . . . . 4,273 7.0
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 7,486 12.3 . . . . . . 7,486 12.3
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 11,416 18.8 2 5.7 11,414 18.8
Associate 16,752 22.7 13,519 22.3 12 29.4 13,507 22.3
High School 28,256 38.3 23,345 38.5 19 46.9 23,326 38.5
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 4,927 8.1 7 18.0 4,920 8.1
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 57,785 95.2 39 95.2 57,746 95.2
In poverty 3,604 4.9 2,908 4.8 2 4.8 2,906 4.8
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 12,097 19.9 . . . . . . 12,097 19.9
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 11,903 19.6 3 6.3 11,900 19.6
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 11,912 19.6 6 14.1 11,907 19.6
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 12,280 20.2 9 21.8 12,271 20.2
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 12,501 20.6 23 57.7 12,477 20.6
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 41,812 68.9 . . . . . . 41,812 68.9
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 11,034 18.2 41 100.0 10,993 18.1
Spouse 6,571 8.9 5,889 9.7 . . . . . . 5,889 9.7
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 1,958 3.2 . . . . . . 1,958 3.2
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 0 73,813
Sex
Female 39,993 0 39,996
Male 33,817 0 0 33,817
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 0 0 7,865
White 54,004 0 54,007
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 0 0 4,382
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 0 62,375
Foreign 11,438 0 0 11,438
Age
60-69 24,505 0 24,508
70-79 31,533 0 0 31,533
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 0 0 41,785
Divorced 13,632 0 0 13,632
Widowed 12,828 0 12,831
Never Married 5,566 0 0 5,566
Education
Graduate 8,636 0 0 8,636
Bachelor 13,936 0 0 13,936
Associate 16,752 0 0 16,752
High School 28,256 0 28,259
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 0 6,230
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 0 70,208
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 0 0 14,762
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 0 0 14,762
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 0 14,766
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 0 0 14,759
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 0 14,763
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 0 0 51,869
Widow(er) 12,154 0 0 12,154
Spouse 6,571 0 0 6,571
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
None 0 0 3
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.