The Future Financial Status of the Social Security Program

by Stephen C. Goss
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 70 No. 3, 2010
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Combined OASI and DI Trust Fund assets as a percentage of program cost, 1990–2008, projected under alternative assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Asset/cost ratio (%)
Historical Alternative I Alternative II Alternative III
1990 75      
1991 82      
1992 96      
1993 107      
1994 117      
1995 128      
1996 140      
1997 154      
1998 171      
1999 194      
2000 216      
2001 239      
2002 263      
2003 288      
2004 305      
2005 318      
2006 335      
2007 345      
2008   358 358 358
2009   356 354 353
2010   364 360 357
2011   374 366 360
2012   385 369 356
2013   392 367 343
2014   397 364 324
2015   401 359 306
2016   405 354 290
2017   407 347 275
2018   408 338 259
2019   406 327 241
2020   404 315 222
2021   401 302 202
2022   398 289 180
2023   394 275 157
2024   390 260 133
2025   385 244 108
2026   379 227 83
2027   373 209 56
2028   367 191 28
2029   361 173 0
2030   354 153  
2031   348 133  
2032   342 113  
2033   336 92  
2034   330 71  
2035   325 50  
2036   320 29  
2037   315 7  
2038   311    
2039   308    
2040   306    
2041   304    
2042   302    
2043   301    
2044   301    
2045   301    
2046   302    
2047   303    
2048   304    
2049   306    
2050   309    
2051   312    
2052   315    
2053   318    
2054   322    
2055   326    
2056   330    
2057   334    
2058   339    
2059   344    
2060   349    
2061   354    
2062   360    
2063   367    
2064   373    
2065   380    
2066   387    
2067   395    
2068   403    
2069   411    
2070   419    
2071   428    
2072   437    
2073   446    
2074   455    
2075   464    
2076   474    
2077   484    
2078   494    
2079   503    
2080   513    
2081   523    
2082   532    
2083   542    
2084   552    
2085   561    
 
Table equivalent for Chart 2. OASDI program cost and noninterest income as percentages of taxable payroll, 2005–2008, projected under the intermediate assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Percentage of taxable payroll
Noninterest Income Program cost, scheduled benefits Program cost, payable benefits
2005 12.71 11.16 11.16
2006 12.74 11.04 11.04
2007 12.75 11.32 11.32
2008 12.71 11.38 11.38
2009 12.83 12.35 12.35
2010 12.87 12.50 12.50
2011 12.87 12.37 12.37
2012 12.87 12.24 12.24
2013 12.90 12.38 12.38
2014 12.92 12.62 12.62
2015 12.94 12.88 12.88
2016 12.96 13.18 13.18
2017 12.98 13.49 13.49
2018 13.00 13.83 13.83
2019 13.02 14.17 14.17
2020 13.04 14.50 14.50
2021 13.06 14.81 14.81
2022 13.08 15.09 15.09
2023 13.10 15.37 15.37
2024 13.12 15.62 15.62
2025 13.13 15.86 15.86
2026 13.15 16.08 16.08
2027 13.16 16.28 16.28
2028 13.17 16.47 16.47
2029 13.19 16.62 16.62
2030 13.20 16.76 16.76
2031 13.21 16.87 16.87
2032 13.22 16.96 16.96
2033 13.23 17.03 17.03
2034 13.23 17.07 17.07
2035 13.24 17.10 17.10
2036 13.24 17.11 17.11
2037 13.25 17.11 13.25
2038 13.25 17.08 13.25
2039 13.25 17.04 13.25
2040 13.25 16.99 13.25
2041 13.25 16.94 13.25
2042 13.25 16.88 13.25
2043 13.25 16.83 13.25
2044 13.25 16.79 13.25
2045 13.25 16.75 13.25
2046 13.25 16.72 13.25
2047 13.25 16.69 13.25
2048 13.25 16.66 13.25
2049 13.25 16.63 13.25
2050 13.25 16.61 13.25
2051 13.25 16.59 13.25
2052 13.25 16.59 13.25
2053 13.25 16.59 13.25
2054 13.26 16.60 13.26
2055 13.26 16.62 13.26
2056 13.26 16.64 13.26
2057 13.26 16.66 13.26
2058 13.27 16.68 13.27
2059 13.27 16.70 13.27
2060 13.27 16.73 13.27
2061 13.27 16.75 13.27
2062 13.28 16.77 13.28
2063 13.28 16.80 13.28
2064 13.28 16.83 13.28
2065 13.28 16.86 13.28
2066 13.29 16.89 13.29
2067 13.29 16.93 13.29
2068 13.29 16.97 13.29
2069 13.30 17.01 13.30
2070 13.30 17.05 13.30
2071 13.30 17.09 13.30
2072 13.31 17.14 13.31
2073 13.31 17.18 13.31
2074 13.31 17.23 13.31
2075 13.32 17.27 13.32
2076 13.32 17.32 13.32
2077 13.32 17.37 13.32
2078 13.33 17.42 13.33
2079 13.33 17.47 13.33
2080 13.33 17.53 13.33
2081 13.34 17.58 13.34
2082 13.34 17.63 13.34
2083 13.34 17.68 13.34
2084 13.35 17.73 13.35
2085 13.35 17.78 13.35
Chart summary: Between 2005 and 2036, the cost of scheduled and payable benefits is equal. Starting in the year the trust funds are exhausted (2037), then payable benefits will equal income.
In-chart note: Payable benefits as a percentage of scheduled benefits:
  • 2009–2036: 100 percent
  • 2037: 76 percent
  • 2083: 73 percent
Table equivalent for Chart 3. OASDI net cash flows as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), 1957–2009
Year Percentage of GDP
1957 -0.01
1958 -0.08
1959 -0.37
1960 0.02
1961 -0.20
1962 -0.35
1963 -0.09
1964 -0.03
1965 0.10
1966 0.22
1967 0.37
1968 0.16
1969 0.42
1970 0.20
1971 0.03
1972 0.01
1973 -0.05
1974 -0.08
1975 -0.27
1976 -0.33
1977 -0.38
1978 -0.28
1979 -0.14
1980 -0.22
1981 -0.13
1982 -0.04
1983 -0.23
1984 0.07
1985 0.20
1986 0.02
1987 0.35
1988 0.64
1989 0.74
1990 0.78
1991 0.56
1992 0.40
1993 0.28
1994 0.38
1995 0.33
1996 0.41
1997 0.54
1998 0.66
1999 0.84
2000 0.89
2001 0.88
2002 0.80
2003 0.61
2004 0.57
2005 0.61
2006 0.65
2007 0.57
2008 0.44
2009 0.02
In-chart notes:
  • Payroll tax rate rises from 6 percent in 1961 to 9 percent in 1971 as program matures.
  • Amendments were passed in 1972, 1977, and 1983.
  • In the 2000s, trust fund assets build, holding down publicly held debt.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. OASI and DI Trust Fund assets as a percentage of program costs, 1990–2008, projected under alternative assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Asset/cost ratio (%)
OASI DI
Historical Alternative I Alternative II Alternative III Historical Alternative I Alternative II Alternative III
1990 78.50       40.40      
1991 87.20       38.78      
1992 103.07       40.30      
1993 116.86       34.56      
1994 129.98       23.05      
1995 138.86       54.51      
1996 148.76       82.83      
1997 159.60       112.52      
1998 177.27       132.96      
1999 200.56       152.38      
2000 222.92       171.39      
2001 246.59       193.03      
2002 272.14       207.63      
2003 299.89       219.49      
2004 321.90       217.67      
2005 339.57       211.57      
2006 360.77       207.10      
2007 372.04       206.33      
2008   392.03 392.03 392.03   197.23 197.23 197.23
2009   392.24 392.10 391.90   182.13 178.81 175.59
2010   405.25 404.26 403.63   168.89 160.75 153.66
2011   418.88 415.67 413.12   158.97 143.97 131.91
2012   432.41 421.55 413.30   152.21 127.51 108.86
2013   439.27 421.41 402.62   148.46 112.75 83.69
2014   444.26 418.84 384.01   147.46 98.31 56.87
2015   447.96 414.97 366.96   147.63 83.94 30.08
2016   450.50 409.97 352.39   148.85 69.55 3.29
2017   450.96 402.73 338.37   151.08 54.85  
2018   449.94 393.70 323.21   154.60 39.94  
2019   446.61 382.63 306.70   158.65 24.71  
2020   442.06 370.11 288.23   163.62 9.24  
2021   437.13 356.92 268.50   168.82    
2022   432.06 343.27 247.73   173.71    
2023   426.36 328.79 225.72   178.73    
2024   420.20 313.58 202.60   183.94    
2025   413.43 297.51 178.52   189.17    
2026   406.14 280.68 153.56   194.50    
2027   397.91 262.79 127.57   201.12    
2028   388.87 243.94 100.62   209.75    
2029   379.83 224.51 72.78   220.96    
2030   370.46 204.45 44.09   234.09    
2031   361.05 183.89 14.59   249.01    
2032   351.72 162.90     265.32    
2033   342.62 141.56     282.69    
2034   333.86 119.92     301.12    
2035   325.41 97.96     320.74    
2036   317.25 75.71     341.60    
2037   309.45 53.16     363.61    
2038   302.24 30.38     386.29    
2039   295.77 7.40     409.06    
2040   290.00       431.77    
2041   284.85       454.57    
2042   280.28       477.28    
2043   276.28       499.83    
2044   272.78       522.41    
2045   269.76       545.14    
2046   267.18       568.21    
2047   265.01       591.77    
2048   263.36       615.69    
2049   262.27       639.99    
2050   261.61       664.57    
2051   261.30       689.39    
2052   261.25       714.62    
2053   261.46       740.26    
2054   261.92       766.48    
2055   262.56       793.59    
2056   263.37       821.93    
2057   264.35       851.39    
2058   265.55       881.52    
2059   267.01       912.13    
2060   268.75       943.01    
2061   270.79       974.07    
2062   273.15       1005.18    
2063   275.85       1036.29    
2064   278.87       1067.49    
2065   282.19       1098.60    
2066   285.82       1129.64    
2067   289.76       1160.60    
2068   294.02       1191.23    
2069   298.59       1221.71    
2070   303.47       1252.49    
2071   308.62       1283.28    
2072   314.03       1313.91    
2073   319.68       1344.51    
2074   325.57       1374.74    
2075   331.70       1404.49    
2076   337.98       1434.43    
2077   344.37       1464.56    
2078   350.82       1494.77    
2079   357.31       1525.14    
2080   363.78       1555.76    
2081   370.23       1586.80    
2082   376.63       1618.34    
2083   382.93       1650.42    
2084   389.10       1683.05    
2085   395.15       1716.15    
 
Table equivalent for Chart 5. OASDI program cost and noninterest income as percentages of GDP, 1990–2008, projected under the intermediate assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Percentage of GDP
Scheduled tax revenue Program cost
1990 5.07 4.36
1991 5.11 4.58
1992 5.06 4.62
1993 4.99 4.64
1994 4.95 4.57
1995 4.96 4.59
1996 4.95 4.52
1997 4.99 4.44
1998 5.10 4.37
1999 5.12 4.24
2000 5.16 4.23
2001 5.22 4.33
2002 5.15 4.41
2003 5.03 4.37
2004 4.95 4.29
2005 4.86 4.27
2006 4.86 4.21
2007 4.85 4.31
2008 4.89 4.38
2009 4.98 4.84
2010 4.99 4.86
2011 4.95 4.76
2012 4.95 4.72
2013 4.93 4.74
2014 4.90 4.80
2015 4.90 4.89
2016 4.89 4.99
2017 4.89 5.09
2018 4.88 5.20
2019 4.87 5.31
2020 4.87 5.42
2021 4.86 5.52
2022 4.85 5.61
2023 4.85 5.70
2024 4.84 5.78
2025 4.84 5.85
2026 4.83 5.92
2027 4.82 5.98
2028 4.82 6.03
2029 4.81 6.07
2030 4.80 6.11
2031 4.79 6.13
2032 4.79 6.15
2033 4.78 6.16
2034 4.77 6.17
2035 4.76 6.16
2036 4.75 6.15
2037 4.75 6.14
2038 4.74 6.12
2039 4.73 6.09
2040 4.72 6.06
2041 4.71 6.03
2042 4.70 6.00
2043 4.69 5.97
2044 4.68 5.95
2045 4.68 5.92
2046 4.67 5.90
2047 4.66 5.88
2048 4.65 5.86
2049 4.64 5.84
2050 4.64 5.82
2051 4.63 5.81
2052 4.62 5.79
2053 4.61 5.78
2054 4.61 5.78
2055 4.60 5.77
2056 4.59 5.77
2057 4.59 5.77
2058 4.58 5.77
2059 4.57 5.77
2060 4.57 5.76
2061 4.56 5.76
2062 4.55 5.76
2063 4.54 5.76
2064 4.54 5.76
2065 4.53 5.76
2066 4.52 5.76
2067 4.52 5.76
2068 4.51 5.77
2069 4.50 5.77
2070 4.50 5.78
2071 4.49 5.78
2072 4.49 5.79
2073 4.48 5.79
2074 4.47 5.80
2075 4.47 5.80
2076 4.46 5.81
2077 4.45 5.82
2078 4.45 5.82
2079 4.44 5.83
2080 4.43 5.84
2081 4.43 5.84
2082 4.42 5.85
2083 4.41 5.86
2084 4.41 5.87
2085 4.40 5.87
 
Table equivalent for Chart 6. OASI and DI program cost and noninterest income as percentages of taxable payroll, 1990–2008, projected under alternative assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Percentage of taxable payroll
OASI DI
Historical cost rates Alternative I cost rates Alternative II cost rates Alternative III cost rates Alternative II income rates Historical cost rates Alternative I cost rates Alternative II cost rates Alternative III cost rates Alternative II income rates
1990 9.66       11.32 1.09       1.17
1991 10.15       11.44 1.18       1.21
1992 10.27       11.43 1.27       1.21
1993 10.37       11.40 1.35       1.21
1994 10.22       10.70 1.40       1.89
1995 10.22       10.70 1.44       1.88
1996 10.06       10.73 1.48       1.89
1997 9.83       10.93 1.44       1.71
1998 9.45       10.96 1.42       1.72
1999 9.10       10.99 1.42       1.72
2000 8.98       10.89 1.42       1.80
2001 9.08       10.89 1.48       1.82
2002 9.29       10.91 1.60       1.82
2003 9.35       10.89 1.68       1.82
2004 9.28       10.92 1.78       1.82
2005 9.31       10.88 1.85       1.82
2006 9.17       10.91 1.88       1.82
2007 9.44       10.93 1.88       1.83
2008   9.40 9.40 9.40 10.88   1.98 1.98 1.98 1.82
2009   10.07 10.17 10.20 10.99   2.12 2.18 2.23 1.84
2010   10.10 10.24 10.32 11.02   2.15 2.26 2.35 1.85
2011   9.97 10.13 10.18 11.02   2.10 2.24 2.35 1.85
2012   9.87 10.04 10.44 11.02   2.02 2.20 2.41 1.85
2013   9.78 10.21 10.78 11.05   1.92 2.17 2.46 1.85
2014   9.98 10.46 11.17 11.07   1.89 2.16 2.51 1.85
2015   10.16 10.72 11.53 11.09   1.86 2.16 2.55 1.85
2016   10.37 11.01 11.88 11.11   1.84 2.17 2.57 1.85
2017   10.58 11.31 12.22 11.13   1.83 2.18 2.59 1.86
2018   10.80 11.63 12.64 11.14   1.81 2.19 2.62 1.86
2019   11.05 11.96 13.03 11.16   1.80 2.20 2.65 1.86
2020   11.30 12.29 13.43 11.18   1.79 2.21 2.68 1.86
2021   11.52 12.58 13.79 11.20   1.79 2.22 2.71 1.86
2022   11.72 12.85 14.14 11.22   1.79 2.25 2.75 1.86
2023   11.91 13.10 14.46 11.24   1.80 2.26 2.78 1.86
2024   12.08 13.35 14.78 11.25   1.80 2.28 2.81 1.86
2025   12.25 13.57 15.07 11.27   1.80 2.29 2.83 1.86
2026   12.39 13.78 15.35 11.28   1.80 2.30 2.85 1.86
2027   12.54 13.98 15.63 11.30   1.79 2.30 2.85 1.86
2028   12.68 14.19 15.90 11.31   1.77 2.28 2.83 1.86
2029   12.79 14.36 16.17 11.33   1.74 2.26 2.82 1.86
2030   12.88 14.52 16.41 11.34   1.71 2.24 2.81 1.86
2031   12.95 14.65 16.64 11.35   1.68 2.22 2.80 1.86
2032   12.99 14.76 16.83 11.36   1.66 2.20 2.80 1.86
2033   13.01 14.84 17.00 11.37   1.64 2.19 2.80 1.86
2034   13.01 14.89 17.14 11.37   1.63 2.18 2.80 1.86
2035   12.98 14.92 17.26 11.38   1.61 2.18 2.80 1.86
2036   12.95 14.94 17.36 11.38   1.60 2.17 2.80 1.86
2037   12.90 14.95 17.45 11.39   1.59 2.16 2.80 1.86
2038   12.83 14.93 17.52 11.39   1.58 2.15 2.80 1.86
2039   12.74 14.89 17.57 11.39   1.57 2.15 2.81 1.86
2040   12.64 14.83 17.60 11.39   1.57 2.16 2.82 1.86
2041   12.54 14.78 17.62 11.39   1.56 2.16 2.84 1.86
2042   12.43 14.71 17.63 11.39   1.56 2.17 2.86 1.86
2043   12.33 14.65 17.65 11.39   1.56 2.18 2.88 1.86
2044   12.24 14.60 17.67 11.39   1.57 2.19 2.90 1.86
2045   12.15 14.55 17.69 11.39   1.57 2.20 2.93 1.86
2046   12.07 14.51 17.73 11.39   1.57 2.21 2.95 1.86
2047   11.99 14.47 17.77 11.39   1.57 2.21 2.97 1.86
2048   11.92 14.44 17.81 11.39   1.57 2.22 2.99 1.86
2049   11.84 14.40 17.84 11.39   1.57 2.23 3.01 1.86
2050   11.77 14.37 17.89 11.39   1.56 2.24 3.03 1.86
2051   11.71 14.35 17.94 11.39   1.56 2.24 3.05 1.86
2052   11.66 14.34 18.00 11.39   1.56 2.25 3.07 1.86
2053   11.61 14.33 18.07 11.39   1.56 2.26 3.09 1.86
2054   11.57 14.34 18.15 11.39   1.56 2.26 3.11 1.86
2055   11.54 14.35 18.25 11.39   1.56 2.27 3.12 1.86
2056   11.51 14.37 18.35 11.40   1.55 2.27 3.13 1.86
2057   11.48 14.39 18.46 11.40   1.55 2.27 3.14 1.86
2058   11.46 14.42 18.58 11.40   1.55 2.26 3.15 1.86
2059   11.43 14.44 18.69 11.40   1.54 2.26 3.15 1.86
2060   11.40 14.46 18.81 11.41   1.54 2.26 3.16 1.86
2061   11.36 14.49 18.93 11.41   1.53 2.26 3.17 1.86
2062   11.33 14.51 19.05 11.41   1.53 2.26 3.18 1.86
2063   11.30 14.53 19.18 11.41   1.53 2.27 3.19 1.86
2064   11.26 14.56 19.31 11.42   1.53 2.27 3.20 1.86
2065   11.23 14.58 19.45 11.42   1.53 2.27 3.21 1.86
2066   11.19 14.61 19.59 11.42   1.53 2.28 3.22 1.86
2067   11.16 14.65 19.74 11.42   1.53 2.28 3.23 1.86
2068   11.13 14.68 19.90 11.43   1.53 2.29 3.24 1.87
2069   11.09 14.71 20.06 11.43   1.53 2.29 3.26 1.87
2070   11.06 14.75 20.22 11.43   1.53 2.30 3.27 1.87
2071   11.03 14.79 20.39 11.44   1.54 2.30 3.27 1.87
2072   11.01 14.83 20.56 11.44   1.54 2.30 3.28 1.87
2073   10.98 14.87 20.74 11.44   1.54 2.31 3.28 1.87
2074   10.96 14.92 20.92 11.45   1.54 2.31 3.28 1.87
2075   10.94 14.96 21.09 11.45   1.55 2.32 3.29 1.87
2076   10.92 15.00 21.27 11.45   1.55 2.32 3.29 1.87
2077   10.91 15.05 21.45 11.46   1.55 2.32 3.29 1.87
2078   10.90 15.10 21.62 11.46   1.55 2.33 3.29 1.87
2079   10.90 15.14 21.78 11.46   1.56 2.33 3.29 1.87
2080   10.90 15.19 21.94 11.47   1.56 2.33 3.29 1.87
2081   10.90 15.24 22.10 11.47   1.56 2.33 3.29 1.87
2082   10.91 15.29 22.26 11.47   1.57 2.34 3.29 1.87
2083   10.92 15.35 22.41 11.48   1.57 2.34 3.29 1.87
2084   10.93 15.40 22.55 11.48   1.57 2.34 3.28 1.87
2085   10.94 15.44 22.69 11.48   1.57 2.34 3.28 1.87
 
Table equivalent for Chart 7. Stochastic projection of OASDI trust fund assets as a percentage of program cost, 2009–2084
Projection year Asset/cost ratio (%)
97.5 percent probability 90 percent probability 80 percent probability 70 percent probability 60 percent probability 50 percent probability 40 percent probability 30 percent probability 20 percent probability 10 percent probability 2.5 percent probability
2009 355 355 355 355 355 354 354 354 354 354 353
2010 364 363 362 361 361 360 360 359 358 357 356
2011 374 370 368 366 365 363 362 361 359 356 352
2012 381 375 370 367 364 362 359 357 353 348 340
2013 389 379 373 367 363 360 355 351 346 339 328
2014 396 382 373 366 360 355 349 344 337 327 312
2015 400 384 372 363 356 349 342 335 326 315 297
2016 404 384 370 360 351 342 334 326 316 303 282
2017 405 381 365 353 344 334 325 316 305 290 267
2018 403 376 359 346 335 325 315 304 293 276 253
2019 398 369 350 336 324 314 303 292 280 262 238
2020 391 360 340 325 312 302 291 278 265 247 222
2021 383 350 329 313 300 288 277 264 250 231 203
2022 375 339 317 301 287 274 263 250 234 214 186
2023 366 328 305 287 272 260 247 234 217 196 167
2024 357 315 291 273 258 244 230 218 200 178 147
2025 345 302 277 258 242 228 213 200 182 159 127
2026 332 289 261 242 225 211 196 181 163 139 104
2027 319 274 245 226 208 193 178 162 143 118 81
2028 307 258 229 208 190 175 158 142 123 96 55
2029 292 242 212 190 171 155 139 121 101 74 31
2030 276 225 194 172 153 135 119 100 79 51 4
2031 262 208 175 153 133 115 98 78 56 27 -24
2032 246 192 157 134 114 95 76 56 33 2 -53
2033 231 175 139 114 93 73 54 33 9 -25 -84
2034 217 157 120 94 72 52 31 10 -16 -51 -117
2035 201 141 101 75 51 30 9 -14 -41 -80 -151
2036 187 124 83 56 30 8 -14 -38 -67 -109 -186
2037 173 107 64 35 9 -15 -37 -62 -94 -140 -222
2038 159 90 45 15 -13 -38 -61 -87 -122 -171 -261
2039 146 73 27 -5 -34 -61 -85 -114 -149 -202 -296
2040 129 56 8 -25 -56 -84 -109 -140 -178 -233 -338
2041 116 39 -10 -45 -78 -106 -134 -168 -206 -267 -375
2042 102 24 -27 -66 -101 -130 -159 -195 -236 -299 -418
2043 91 7 -45 -86 -122 -153 -185 -223 -268 -331 -458
2044 78 -8 -63 -107 -144 -177 -211 -250 -297 -366 -498
2045 67 -23 -81 -127 -166 -201 -237 -278 -330 -404 -539
2046 58 -37 -100 -148 -188 -225 -263 -306 -362 -438 -585
2047 49 -52 -119 -168 -210 -250 -289 -335 -392 -475 -635
2048 40 -67 -138 -188 -232 -274 -316 -365 -422 -514 -680
2049 35 -82 -155 -209 -254 -298 -345 -394 -457 -552 -727
2050 24 -97 -172 -229 -276 -324 -373 -423 -491 -590 -768
2051 16 -110 -190 -250 -299 -349 -399 -453 -525 -631 -820
2052 9 -122 -208 -269 -323 -375 -425 -484 -559 -668 -866
2053 -2 -136 -226 -291 -347 -401 -452 -513 -594 -707 -917
2054 -8 -151 -244 -311 -369 -426 -482 -545 -626 -748 -963
2055 -17 -166 -261 -332 -393 -450 -508 -577 -659 -788 -1,009
2056 -25 -180 -278 -353 -416 -476 -537 -609 -695 -832 -1,057
2057 -32 -193 -299 -375 -442 -499 -567 -641 -730 -876 -1,122
2058 -40 -207 -318 -395 -465 -527 -597 -673 -768 -922 -1,175
2059 -47 -222 -333 -416 -487 -555 -627 -708 -807 -968 -1,230
2060 -55 -235 -351 -436 -512 -581 -659 -743 -846 -1,013 -1,290
2061 -63 -249 -368 -460 -537 -608 -690 -780 -887 -1,055 -1,350
2062 -71 -266 -387 -482 -562 -637 -722 -815 -927 -1,099 -1,407
2063 -73 -278 -407 -505 -589 -666 -751 -851 -965 -1,153 -1,471
2064 -84 -292 -425 -527 -614 -695 -784 -888 -1,006 -1,201 -1,524
2065 -91 -309 -444 -551 -639 -725 -817 -923 -1,047 -1,249 -1,594
2066 -100 -325 -464 -575 -664 -757 -852 -961 -1,098 -1,291 -1,655
2067 -106 -340 -487 -597 -690 -790 -885 -998 -1,144 -1,333 -1,713
2068 -117 -348 -505 -624 -720 -821 -918 -1,037 -1,179 -1,385 -1,781
2069 -125 -367 -526 -645 -751 -852 -950 -1,076 -1,221 -1,437 -1,844
2070 -135 -381 -546 -671 -782 -885 -990 -1,114 -1,265 -1,485 -1,906
2071 -141 -394 -570 -701 -809 -914 -1,029 -1,158 -1,307 -1,544 -1,960
2072 -151 -406 -588 -726 -838 -948 -1,068 -1,198 -1,353 -1,601 -2,018
2073 -160 -421 -607 -754 -865 -983 -1,105 -1,238 -1,399 -1,651 -2,111
2074 -167 -439 -627 -777 -896 -1,021 -1,144 -1,278 -1,446 -1,712 -2,208
2075 -173 -453 -650 -802 -932 -1,056 -1,186 -1,321 -1,501 -1,776 -2,284
2076 -183 -468 -675 -827 -961 -1,091 -1,225 -1,366 -1,548 -1,832 -2,372
2077 -191 -486 -698 -858 -990 -1,130 -1,264 -1,415 -1,609 -1,903 -2,439
2078 -203 -503 -721 -885 -1,022 -1,168 -1,304 -1,462 -1,660 -1,969 -2,514
2079 -213 -523 -738 -911 -1,054 -1,204 -1,345 -1,509 -1,716 -2,027 -2,582
2080 -227 -544 -767 -938 -1,088 -1,241 -1,383 -1,558 -1,766 -2,093 -2,678
2081 -240 -568 -793 -966 -1,122 -1,278 -1,431 -1,606 -1,831 -2,169 -2,783
2082 -257 -589 -817 -995 -1,158 -1,313 -1,473 -1,661 -1,895 -2,244 -2,875
2083 -265 -609 -845 -1,028 -1,191 -1,350 -1,517 -1,711 -1,955 -2,314 -2,981
2084 -284 -629 -872 -1,057 -1,225 -1,390 -1,562 -1,767 -2,010 -2,379 -3,090
2085 -301 -645 -895 -1,088 -1,261 -1,427 -1,610 -1,818 -2,070 -2,453 -3,215
 
Table equivalent for Chart 8. OASDI net cash flows as a percentage of GDP, 1957–2009, projected under the intermediate assumptions, 2010–2085
Year Percentage of GDP
Net cash flows Shortfall
1957 -0.009  
1958 -0.080  
1959 -0.365  
1960 0.015  
1961 -0.195  
1962 -0.350  
1963 -0.093  
1964 -0.027  
1965 0.095  
1966 0.224  
1967 0.366  
1968 0.158  
1969 0.418  
1970 0.202  
1971 0.030  
1972 0.011  
1973 -0.054  
1974 -0.079  
1975 -0.269  
1976 -0.325  
1977 -0.384  
1978 -0.278  
1979 -0.141  
1980 -0.221  
1981 -0.133  
1982 -0.035  
1983 -0.232  
1984 0.070  
1985 0.198  
1986 0.019  
1987 0.351  
1988 0.643  
1989 0.739  
1990 0.777  
1991 0.560  
1992 0.400  
1993 0.284  
1994 0.381  
1995 0.333  
1996 0.410  
1997 0.537  
1998 0.655  
1999 0.836  
2000 0.893  
2001 0.877  
2002 0.799  
2003 0.609  
2004 0.565  
2005 0.614  
2006 0.650  
2007 0.570  
2008 0.442  
2009 0.023  
2010 0.123  
2011 0.181  
2012 0.232  
2013 0.190  
2014 0.098  
2015 0.010  
2016 -0.094  
2017 -0.204  
2018 -0.321  
2019 -0.437  
2020 -0.551  
2021 -0.657  
2022 -0.757  
2023 -0.850  
2024 -0.934  
2025 -1.016  
2026 -1.089  
2027 -1.153  
2028 -1.212  
2029 -1.261  
2030 -1.304  
2031 -1.340  
2032 -1.365  
2033 -1.385  
2034 -1.394  
2035 -1.400  
2036 -1.398  
2037 0.000 -1.394
2038 0.000 -1.381
2039 0.000 -1.363
2040 0.000 -1.343
2041 0.000 -1.321
2042 0.000 -1.301
2043 0.000 -1.280
2044 0.000 -1.260
2045 0.000 -1.245
2046 0.000 -1.232
2047 0.000 -1.219
2048 0.000 -1.206
2049 0.000 -1.194
2050 0.000 -1.184
2051 0.000 -1.177
2052 0.000 -1.173
2053 0.000 -1.171
2054 0.000 -1.172
2055 0.000 -1.174
2056 0.000 -1.178
2057 0.000 -1.183
2058 0.000 -1.188
2059 0.000 -1.193
2060 0.000 -1.198
2061 0.000 -1.203
2062 0.000 -1.208
2063 0.000 -1.214
2064 0.000 -1.221
2065 0.000 -1.228
2066 0.000 -1.237
2067 0.000 -1.246
2068 0.000 -1.256
2069 0.000 -1.266
2070 0.000 -1.277
2071 0.000 -1.289
2072 0.000 -1.301
2073 0.000 -1.313
2074 0.000 -1.325
2075 0.000 -1.337
2076 0.000 -1.349
2077 0.000 -1.362
2078 0.000 -1.376
2079 0.000 -1.390
2080 0.000 -1.403
2081 0.000 -1.418
2082 0.000 -1.431
2083 0.000 -1.445
2084 0.000 -1.459
2085 0.000 -1.472
In-chart notes: Between 2013 and 2036, the trust funds are redeemed to pay benefits and are replaced by publicly held debt. As of 2037, benefits will not be payable under current law.
Table equivalent for Chart 9. Number of OASDI beneficiaries per 100 covered workers, 1980–2008, projected under alternative assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Number of OASDI beneficiaries per 100 covered workers
Historical Alternative I Alternative II Alternative III
1980 31.17      
1981 31.65      
1982 31.79      
1983 31.77      
1984 30.88      
1985 30.47      
1986 30.40      
1987 30.15      
1988 29.59      
1989 29.41      
1990 29.65      
1991 30.32      
1992 30.75      
1993 30.86      
1994 30.66      
1995 30.59      
1996 30.34      
1997 29.96      
1998 29.55      
1999 29.21      
2000 29.19      
2001 29.46      
2002 29.90      
2003 30.24      
2004 30.29      
2005 30.31      
2006 30.26      
2007 30.42      
2008   31.05 31.05 31.05
2009   32.07 32.27 32.44
2010   32.72 33.15 33.51
2011   32.88 33.53 34.00
2012   32.98 33.84 34.69
2013   33.23 34.27 35.75
2014   33.67 34.81 36.44
2015   34.21 35.44 37.15
2016   34.80 36.17 37.88
2017   35.44 36.95 38.62
2018   36.13 37.76 39.50
2019   37.06 38.55 40.07
2020   37.75 39.41 41.10
2021   38.42 40.23 42.11
2022   39.04 41.02 43.08
2023   39.64 41.78 44.02
2024   40.22 42.52 44.93
2025   40.76 43.22 45.81
2026   41.28 43.89 46.65
2027   41.74 44.51 47.44
2028   42.16 45.09 48.19
2029   42.51 45.61 48.88
2030   42.82 46.08 49.53
2031   43.06 46.48 50.13
2032   43.26 46.84 50.69
2033   43.40 47.15 51.20
2034   43.47 47.39 51.65
2035   43.48 47.58 52.04
2036   43.44 47.71 52.39
2037   43.36 47.81 52.69
2038   43.22 47.84 52.95
2039   43.03 47.83 53.18
2040   42.82 47.80 53.37
2041   42.60 47.76 53.57
2042   42.38 47.72 53.75
2043   42.17 47.67 53.94
2044   41.96 47.64 54.14
2045   41.76 47.61 54.34
2046   41.57 47.59 54.56
2047   41.39 47.58 54.79
2048   41.21 47.57 55.02
2049   41.04 47.57 55.25
2050   40.88 47.59 55.50
2051   40.74 47.62 55.76
2052   40.62 47.67 56.04
2053   40.52 47.73 56.34
2054   40.43 47.81 56.65
2055   40.35 47.90 56.98
2056   40.28 47.99 57.32
2057   40.21 48.08 57.66
2058   40.13 48.17 57.99
2059   40.06 48.26 58.33
2060   39.98 48.34 58.66
2061   39.89 48.43 59.00
2062   39.81 48.52 59.35
2063   39.72 48.62 59.72
2064   39.63 48.72 60.09
2065   39.54 48.82 60.48
2066   39.46 48.94 60.89
2067   39.38 49.06 61.31
2068   39.30 49.18 61.75
2069   39.22 49.31 62.19
2070   39.14 49.44 62.65
2071   39.06 49.57 63.11
2072   38.99 49.70 63.56
2073   38.92 49.83 64.02
2074   38.86 49.97 64.48
2075   38.80 50.10 64.93
2076   38.76 50.24 65.39
2077   38.72 50.38 65.84
2078   38.70 50.52 66.27
2079   38.68 50.67 66.70
2080   38.68 50.81 67.11
2081   38.69 50.96 67.52
2082   38.70 51.11 67.92
2083   38.72 51.26 68.30
2084   38.76 51.41 68.67
2085   38.80 51.56 69.02
 
Table equivalent for Chart 10. Total U.S. fertility rates with and without adjustment for survival to age 10, 1875–2005
Year Children per woman of childbearing age
Total fertility rate Adjusted total fertility rate
1875 4.55 3.09
1876 4.45 3.04
1877 4.37 3.00
1878 4.27 2.95
1879 4.23 2.94
1880 4.24 2.96
1881 4.28 3.01
1882 4.25 3.00
1883 4.29 3.05
1884 4.29 3.06
1885 4.23 3.04
1886 4.11 2.97
1887 4.06 2.95
1888 4.06 2.97
1889 3.99 2.93
1890 3.87 2.86
1891 3.93 2.92
1892 4.01 3.00
1893 3.98 2.99
1894 3.89 2.94
1895 3.83 2.91
1896 3.77 2.88
1897 3.64 2.80
1898 3.60 2.78
1899 3.57 2.77
1900 3.56 2.78
1901 3.38 2.66
1902 3.38 2.67
1903 3.41 2.71
1904 3.44 2.75
1905 3.50 2.81
1906 3.53 2.85
1907 3.52 2.86
1908 3.51 2.87
1909 3.46 2.84
1910 3.42 2.83
1911 3.34 2.78
1912 3.35 2.80
1913 3.35 2.82
1914 3.30 2.79
1915 3.25 2.76
1916 3.23 2.76
1917 3.28 2.82
1918 3.24 2.80
1919 3.00 2.61
1920 3.17 2.77
1921 3.24 2.84
1922 2.97 2.62
1923 2.96 2.62
1924 2.98 2.65
1925 2.84 2.54
1926 2.73 2.45
1927 2.72 2.45
1928 2.60 2.35
1929 2.46 2.23
1930 2.45 2.23
1931 2.31 2.11
1932 2.22 2.03
1933 2.11 1.94
1934 2.19 2.02
1935 2.14 1.98
1936 2.10 1.95
1937 2.12 1.97
1938 2.18 2.03
1939 2.13 1.99
1940 2.23 2.09
1941 2.33 2.19
1942 2.55 2.40
1943 2.64 2.49
1944 2.49 2.36
1945 2.42 2.30
1946 2.86 2.72
1947 3.18 3.04
1948 3.03 2.90
1949 3.04 2.92
1950 3.03 2.92
1951 3.20 3.08
1952 3.29 3.17
1953 3.35 3.23
1954 3.46 3.34
1955 3.50 3.38
1956 3.60 3.48
1957 3.68 3.55
1958 3.63 3.51
1959 3.64 3.52
1960 3.61 3.49
1961 3.56 3.45
1962 3.42 3.31
1963 3.30 3.20
1964 3.17 3.08
1965 2.88 2.80
1966 2.67 2.59
1967 2.53 2.46
1968 2.43 2.36
1969 2.42 2.36
1970 2.43 2.37
1971 2.25 2.19
1972 1.99 1.94
1973 1.86 1.82
1974 1.82 1.78
1975 1.77 1.73
1976 1.74 1.70
1977 1.80 1.77
1978 1.76 1.73
1979 1.82 1.79
1980 1.82 1.79
1981 1.80 1.77
1982 1.81 1.78
1983 1.78 1.75
1984 1.79 1.76
1985 1.84 1.81
1986 1.83 1.80
1987 1.86 1.83
1988 1.92 1.89
1989 2.00 1.97
1990 2.07 2.04
1991 2.06 2.04
1992 2.04 2.02
1993 2.02 2.00
1994 2.00 1.98
1995 1.98 1.96
1996 1.98 1.96
1997 1.97 1.95
1998 2.00 1.98
1999 2.01 1.99
2000 2.06 2.04
2001 2.03 2.01
2002 2.01 1.99
2003 2.02 2.00
 
Table equivalent for Chart 11. Total and aged dependency ratios, 1975–2008, projected under alternative life expectancy assumptions, 2009–2085
Year Aged dependency ratio Total dependency ratio
Historical Intermediate projection Projection with no increase in life expectancy after 2008 Historical Intermediate projection Projection with no increase in life expectancy after 2008
1975 0.19     0.83    
1976 0.19     0.82    
1977 0.19     0.80    
1978 0.19     0.78    
1979 0.19     0.77    
1980 0.20     0.75    
1981 0.20     0.74    
1982 0.20     0.73    
1983 0.20     0.72    
1984 0.20     0.71    
1985 0.20     0.71    
1986 0.20     0.71    
1987 0.21     0.70    
1988 0.21     0.70    
1989 0.21     0.70    
1990 0.21     0.70    
1991 0.21     0.70    
1992 0.21     0.70    
1993 0.21     0.70    
1994 0.21     0.71    
1995 0.21     0.71    
1996 0.21     0.71    
1997 0.21     0.71    
1998 0.21     0.70    
1999 0.21     0.70    
2000 0.21     0.70    
2001 0.21     0.69    
2002 0.21     0.69    
2003 0.21     0.68    
2004 0.21     0.68    
2005 0.21     0.68    
2006 0.21     0.67    
2007 0.21     0.67    
2008 0.21     0.67    
2009   0.21 0.21   0.67 0.67
2010   0.21 0.21   0.67 0.67
2011   0.21 0.21   0.67 0.67
2012   0.22 0.22   0.67 0.67
2013   0.22 0.22   0.67 0.67
2014   0.23 0.23   0.68 0.68
2015   0.23 0.23   0.68 0.68
2016   0.24 0.24   0.69 0.69
2017   0.25 0.24   0.69 0.69
2018   0.25 0.25   0.70 0.70
2019   0.26 0.26   0.71 0.71
2020   0.27 0.26   0.72 0.72
2021   0.28 0.27   0.73 0.72
2022   0.28 0.28   0.74 0.73
2023   0.29 0.29   0.75 0.74
2024   0.30 0.29   0.76 0.75
2025   0.31 0.30   0.77 0.76
2026   0.32 0.31   0.78 0.77
2027   0.32 0.31   0.79 0.78
2028   0.33 0.32   0.80 0.78
2029   0.34 0.32   0.80 0.79
2030   0.34 0.33   0.81 0.80
2031   0.35 0.33   0.81 0.80
2032   0.35 0.33   0.82 0.80
2033   0.35 0.33   0.82 0.80
2034   0.36 0.34   0.82 0.80
2035   0.36 0.34   0.82 0.80
2036   0.36 0.34   0.83 0.80
2037   0.36 0.34   0.83 0.80
2038   0.36 0.34   0.83 0.80
2039   0.36 0.33   0.82 0.80
2040   0.36 0.33   0.82 0.79
2041   0.36 0.33   0.82 0.79
2042   0.36 0.33   0.82 0.79
2043   0.36 0.33   0.81 0.78
2044   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.78
2045   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.78
2046   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.78
2047   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.77
2048   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.77
2049   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.77
2050   0.36 0.32   0.81 0.77
2051   0.36 0.31   0.81 0.77
2052   0.36 0.31   0.81 0.77
2053   0.36 0.31   0.81 0.77
2054   0.36 0.31   0.81 0.77
2055   0.36 0.31   0.82 0.77
2056   0.37 0.32   0.82 0.77
2057   0.37 0.32   0.82 0.77
2058   0.37 0.32   0.82 0.77
2059   0.37 0.32   0.83 0.78
2060   0.37 0.32   0.83 0.78
2061   0.37 0.32   0.83 0.78
2062   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.78
2063   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.77
2064   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.77
2065   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.77
2066   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.77
2067   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.77
2068   0.38 0.32   0.83 0.77
2069   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2070   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2071   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2072   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2073   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2074   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2075   0.39 0.32   0.84 0.77
2076   0.40 0.32   0.84 0.77
2077   0.40 0.32   0.85 0.77
2078   0.40 0.32   0.85 0.78
2079   0.40 0.32   0.85 0.78
2080   0.40 0.32   0.85 0.78
2081   0.40 0.32   0.85 0.78
2082   0.41 0.32   0.85 0.78
2083   0.41 0.32   0.86 0.78
2084   0.41 0.32   0.86 0.78
2085   0.41 0.33   0.86 0.78