Coping with the Demographic Challenge: Fewer Children and Living Longer

by Gayle L. Reznik, Dave Shoffner, and David A. Weaver
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 4, 2005/2006
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Fertility rates, selected years 1946–2030
Year Number of children
Historical
1946 2.86
1964 3.17
1970 2.43
1980 1.82
1990 2.07
2000 2.06
Projected a
2010 2.03
2020 2.01
2030 2.00
SOURCE: Board of Trustees (2006, Table V.A1).
a. Projected using the intermediate assumptions in the 2006 annual report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Unisex cohort life expectancy at age 65, selected years 1960–2060
Year Years of increased
life expectancy
Historical
1960 15.5
1980 16.9
2000 18.0
Projected a
2005 18.3
2020 19.2
2040 20.4
2060 21.4
SOURCE: Bell and Miller (2004).
a. Projected using the intermediate assumptions in the 2004 annual report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
Table equvialent for Chart 3. Worker-to-beneficiary ratio, selected years 1960–2060
Year Ratio
Historical
1960 5.1
1980 3.2
2000 3.4
2005 3.3
Projected a
2020 2.6
2040 2.1
2060 2.0
SOURCE: Board of Trustees (2006, Table IV.B2).
a. Projected using the intermediate assumptions in the 2006 annual report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.