Projections of Economic Well-Being for Social Security Beneficiaries in 2022 and 2062

by Barbara A. Butrica, David B. Cashin, and Cori E. Uccello
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 4, 2005/2006
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Projected poverty rates for Social Security beneficiaries aged 62 or older, by marital status, 2022 and 2062 (in percent)
Marital status 2022 2062
Current-law
scheduled benefits
Current-law
payable benefits
Never married 8.6 4.2 11.5
Married 1.2 0.3 0.9
Widowed 3.4 0.5 3.0
Divorced 4.8 1.1 3.5
SOURCE: Urban Institute tabulations of the expanded version of the Modeling Income in the Near Term model (MINTEX).
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Projected median income replacement rates for Social Security beneficiaries aged 62 or older, by quintile of shared lifetime earnings, 2022 and 2062 (in percent)
Quintile of shared lifetime earnings 2022 2062
Current-law
scheduled benefits
Current-law
payable benefits
Lowest 119 109 87
2nd 81 78 64
3rd 77 73 63
4th 79 75 67
Highest 89 94 88
SOURCE: Urban Institute tabulations of the expanded version of the Modeling Income in the Near Term model (MINTEX).
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Projected median Social Security dependence ratios for Social Security beneficiaries aged 62 or older, by quintile of shared lifetime earnings, 2022 and 2062 (in percent)
Quintile of shared lifetime earnings 2022 2062
Current-law
scheduled benefits
Current-law
payable benefits
Lowest 52 62 53
2nd 48 51 42
3rd 43 47 38
4th 37 38 30
Highest 25 21 16
SOURCE: Urban Institute tabulations of the expanded version of the Modeling Income in the Near Term model (MINTEX).