The Financial Outlook for the Social Security Disability Insurance Program

by Stephen C. Goss
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 3, 2005/2006
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Covered workers per OASDI beneficiary, 1955–2004 and projected under alternative program cost assumptions to 2080
Year Historical data Projections
Low cost assumption Intermediate assumption High cost assumption
1955 8.6 . . . . . . . . .
1956 8.1 . . . . . . . . .
1957 6.8 . . . . . . . . .
1958 5.9 . . . . . . . . .
1959 5.4 . . . . . . . . .
1960 5.1 . . . . . . . . .
1961 4.7 . . . . . . . . .
1962 4.3 . . . . . . . . .
1963 4.1 . . . . . . . . .
1964 4.0 . . . . . . . . .
1965 4.0 . . . . . . . . .
1966 3.9 . . . . . . . . .
1967 3.9 . . . . . . . . .
1968 3.8 . . . . . . . . .
1969 3.8 . . . . . . . . .
1970 3.7 . . . . . . . . .
1971 3.6 . . . . . . . . .
1972 3.5 . . . . . . . . .
1973 3.5 . . . . . . . . .
1974 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
1975 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1976 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1977 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1978 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1979 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1980 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1981 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1982 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1983 3.2 . . . . . . . . .
1984 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1985 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1986 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1987 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1988 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
1989 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
1990 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
1991 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1992 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1993 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1994 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1995 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1996 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1997 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
1998 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
1999 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
2000 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
2001 3.4 . . . . . . . . .
2002 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
2003 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
2004 3.3 . . . . . . . . .
2005 . . . 3.3 3.3 3.3
2006 . . . 3.3 3.3 3.2
2007 . . . 3.3 3.3 3.2
2008 . . . 3.3 3.3 3.2
2009 . . . 3.3 3.2 3.1
2010 . . . 3.2 3.2 3.0
2011 . . . 3.2 3.1 3.0
2012 . . . 3.2 3.1 2.9
2013 . . . 3.1 3.0 2.9
2014 . . . 3.1 2.9 2.8
2015 . . . 3.0 2.9 2.7
2016 . . . 3.0 2.8 2.7
2017 . . . 2.9 2.8 2.6
2018 . . . 2.8 2.7 2.6
2019 . . . 2.8 2.6 2.5
2020 . . . 2.7 2.6 2.4
2021 . . . 2.7 2.5 2.4
2022 . . . 2.6 2.5 2.3
2023 . . . 2.6 2.4 2.3
2024 . . . 2.6 2.4 2.2
2025 . . . 2.5 2.3 2.2
2026 . . . 2.5 2.3 2.1
2027 . . . 2.4 2.3 2.1
2028 . . . 2.4 2.2 2.1
2029 . . . 2.4 2.2 2.0
2030 . . . 2.4 2.2 2.0
2031 . . . 2.4 2.1 2.0
2032 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.9
2033 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.9
2034 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.9
2035 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.9
2036 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.9
2037 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.9
2038 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.8
2039 . . . 2.3 2.1 1.8
2040 . . . 2.3 2.0 1.8
2041 . . . 2.3 2.0 1.8
2042 . . . 2.3 2.0 1.8
2043 . . . 2.3 2.0 1.8
2044 . . . 2.3 2.0 1.8
2045 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.8
2046 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.8
2047 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2048 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2049 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2050 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2051 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2052 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2053 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2054 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2055 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.7
2056 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.6
2057 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.6
2058 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.6
2059 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.6
2060 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.6
2061 . . . 2.4 2.0 1.6
2062 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.6
2063 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.6
2064 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.6
2065 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2066 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2067 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2068 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2069 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2070 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2071 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2072 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2073 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2074 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.5
2075 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.4
2076 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.4
2077 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.4
2078 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.4
2079 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.4
2080 . . . 2.4 1.9 1.4
SOURCE: 2006 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
NOTE: . . . = not applicable.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Projected beneficiaries per 100 covered workers for OASI, DI, and OASDI, 2006–2080
Year OASI DI OASDI
2006 25.0 5.3 30.2
2007 25.0 5.4 30.4
2008 25.2 5.5 30.7
2009 25.5 5.6 31.1
2010 25.8 5.7 31.5
2011 26.2 5.8 32.0
2012 26.8 5.9 32.7
2013 27.4 5.9 33.4
2014 28.1 6.0 34.1
2015 28.8 6.1 34.8
2016 29.5 6.1 35.7
2017 30.3 6.2 36.5
2018 31.0 6.3 37.2
2019 31.7 6.3 38.0
2020 32.4 6.3 38.7
2021 33.2 6.4 39.5
2022 33.9 6.4 40.4
2023 34.6 6.5 41.2
2024 35.3 6.6 42.0
2025 36.0 6.7 42.7
2026 36.7 6.8 43.4
2027 37.4 6.8 44.2
2028 38.0 6.8 44.8
2029 38.6 6.8 45.4
2030 39.2 6.8 46.0
2031 39.6 6.8 46.4
2032 40.1 6.8 46.9
2033 40.5 6.8 47.3
2034 40.8 6.8 47.6
2035 41.0 6.8 47.9
2036 41.2 6.9 48.1
2037 41.4 6.9 48.2
2038 41.5 6.9 48.4
2039 41.6 6.9 48.5
2040 41.6 6.9 48.5
2041 41.6 7.0 48.6
2042 41.6 7.0 48.6
2043 41.6 7.0 48.7
2044 41.7 7.1 48.8
2045 41.7 7.1 48.8
2046 41.7 7.1 48.9
2047 41.8 7.1 48.9
2048 41.8 7.1 49.0
2049 41.9 7.2 49.1
2050 42.0 7.2 49.1
2051 42.0 7.2 49.2
2052 42.1 7.2 49.3
2053 42.1 7.2 49.4
2054 42.2 7.2 49.5
2055 42.3 7.3 49.6
2056 42.4 7.3 49.7
2057 42.5 7.3 49.8
2058 42.7 7.2 49.9
2059 42.8 7.2 50.0
2060 42.9 7.2 50.1
2061 43.0 7.2 50.2
2062 43.1 7.3 50.3
2063 43.2 7.3 50.5
2064 43.3 7.3 50.6
2065 43.5 7.3 50.8
2066 43.6 7.3 50.9
2067 43.7 7.3 51.0
2068 43.9 7.3 51.2
2069 44.0 7.3 51.3
2070 44.2 7.3 51.5
2071 44.3 7.3 51.6
2072 44.4 7.3 51.7
2073 44.5 7.3 51.8
2074 44.6 7.3 51.9
2075 44.7 7.3 52.0
2076 44.8 7.4 52.1
2077 44.9 7.4 52.2
2078 45.0 7.4 52.3
2079 45.1 7.4 52.4
2080 45.2 7.4 52.6
SOURCE: 2006 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
NOTES: OASI = Old-Age and Survivor's Insurance; DI = Disability insurance; OASDI = Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.
OASDI total may not equal sum of OASI and DI because of rounding.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Disabled-worker prevalence rates, by male and female combined: 1970–2005 and projected to 2080
Year Disabled workers per 1,000 insured workers
Gross prevalence rate Age-sex adjusted prevalence rate a
1970 21.2 20.0
1971 22.9 21.6
1972 25.1 23.6
1973 27.2 25.1
1974 29.7 26.9
1975 32.5 29.2
1976 34.4 30.7
1977 36.0 31.8
1978 35.8 30.7
1979 35.1 29.3
1980 34.9 28.5
1981 32.8 27.0
1982 29.8 24.9
1983 28.9 24.3
1984 28.8 24.2
1985 29.1 24.2
1986 29.5 24.4
1987 29.8 24.5
1988 29.8 24.4
1989 30.1 24.5
1990 30.7 25.0
1991 31.9 26.3
1992 33.7 28.2
1993 35.3 29.9
1994 36.7 31.4
1995 38.0 32.6
1996 38.8 33.6
1997 38.8 34.0
1998 39.3 34.8
1999 39.6 35.5
2000 39.8 36.1
2001 40.3 37.2
2002 41.0 38.8
2003 41.9 40.6
2004 42.9 42.3
2005 43.6 43.6
2006 43.9 44.6
2007 44.2 45.5
2008 44.4 46.4
2009 44.7 47.3
2010 45.0 48.3
2011 45.2 49.0
2012 45.5 49.5
2013 45.8 50.1
2014 46.0 50.8
2015 46.2 51.4
2016 46.4 51.9
2017 46.6 52.4
2018 46.9 52.8
2019 47.1 53.1
2020 47.3 53.3
2021 47.5 53.4
2022 47.8 53.5
2023 48.2 53.6
2024 48.4 53.6
2025 48.6 53.6
2026 48.8 53.6
2027 49.1 53.5
2028 49.4 53.5
2029 49.6 53.4
2030 49.8 53.4
2031 49.9 53.5
2032 50.1 53.7
2033 50.3 53.8
2034 50.4 53.9
2035 50.5 53.8
2036 50.7 53.9
2037 50.8 54.1
2038 51.0 54.4
2039 51.1 54.7
2040 51.2 55.0
2041 51.3 55.4
2042 51.4 55.7
2043 51.5 56.0
2044 51.6 56.1
2045 51.6 56.2
2046 51.7 56.3
2047 51.8 56.4
2048 51.9 56.5
2049 52.0 56.7
2050 52.0 56.9
2051 52.1 57.0
2052 52.1 57.2
2053 52.2 57.3
2054 52.3 57.3
2055 52.3 57.3
2056 52.3 57.2
2057 52.3 57.2
2058 52.4 57.3
2059 52.5 57.3
2060 52.5 57.4
2061 52.5 57.5
2062 52.6 57.6
2063 52.6 57.8
2064 52.6 57.9
2065 52.7 57.9
2066 52.7 57.9
2067 52.8 57.9
2068 52.8 57.8
2069 52.8 57.9
2070 52.9 57.9
2071 52.9 58.0
2072 53.0 58.1
2073 53.0 58.2
2074 53.0 58.3
2075 53.1 58.4
2076 53.1 58.5
2077 53.1 58.6
2078 53.2 58.6
2079 53.2 58.7
2080 53.3 58.8
SOURCE: 2006 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
a. Adjusted to levels of insured workers in 2005.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Disabled worker incidence rates, 1970–2005 and projected to 2015
Year Awards per 1,000 disability-exposed workers
Gross incidence rate Age-sex adjusted incidence rate a
1970 4.9 4.6
1971 5.7 5.3
1972 6.1 5.7
1973 6.5 6.1
1974 6.8 6.7
1975 7.2 7.2
1976 6.6 6.6
1977 6.7 6.7
1978 5.5 5.8
1979 4.7 5.1
1980 4.4 4.8
1981 3.9 4.2
1982 3.3 3.7
1983 4.2 4.7
1984 4.0 4.3
1985 3.9 4.3
1986 3.9 4.3
1987 3.8 4.2
1988 3.7 4.1
1989 3.8 4.2
1990 4.1 4.5
1991 4.6 5.0
1992 5.4 5.8
1993 5.3 5.7
1994 5.2 5.5
1995 5.2 5.5
1996 5.0 5.2
1997 4.6 4.8
1998 4.7 4.8
1999 4.7 4.8
2000 4.7 4.7
2001 5.1 5.0
2002 5.5 5.3
2003 5.6 5.3
2004 5.7 5.3
2005 5.9 5.4
2006 5.8 5.3
2007 5.8 5.2
2008 5.7 5.1
2009 5.8 5.0
2010 5.9 5.1
2011 5.8 5.0
2012 5.9 5.0
2013 6.0 5.0
2014 6.1 5.1
2015 6.1 5.1
SOURCE: 2006 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
a. Adjusted to levels of insured workers in 2005.
Table equivalent for Chart 5. OASI, DI, and OASDI annual cost rate 1990–2005 and projected under the intermediate cost assumption to 2080
Year Percentage of taxable payroll
OASI DI OASDI
1990 9.66 1.09 10.74
1991 10.15 1.18 11.33
1992 10.27 1.27 11.54
1993 10.37 1.35 11.73
1994 10.22 1.40 11.62
1995 10.22 1.44 11.67
1996 10.06 1.48 11.53
1997 9.83 1.44 11.27
1998 9.45 1.42 10.87
1999 9.09 1.42 10.51
2000 8.97 1.42 10.40
2001 9.08 1.48 10.56
2002 9.30 1.60 10.90
2003 9.33 1.68 11.01
2004 9.30 1.78 11.08
2005 9.30 1.85 11.15
2006 9.31 1.91 11.22
2007 9.23 1.92 11.15
2008 9.18 1.92 11.10
2009 9.23 1.93 11.16
2010 9.33 1.96 11.29
2011 9.45 1.95 11.40
2012 9.64 1.99 11.63
2013 9.89 2.02 11.91
2014 10.15 2.04 12.19
2015 10.41 2.06 12.48
2016 10.69 2.07 12.76
2017 10.98 2.09 13.07
2018 11.28 2.10 13.37
2019 11.57 2.11 13.68
2020 11.87 2.11 13.99
2021 12.17 2.13 14.30
2022 12.44 2.16 14.60
2023 12.72 2.18 14.90
2024 12.99 2.21 15.20
2025 13.26 2.24 15.50
2026 13.51 2.27 15.78
2027 13.77 2.29 16.05
2028 14.02 2.28 16.30
2029 14.23 2.28 16.52
2030 14.44 2.28 16.71
2031 14.62 2.27 16.89
2032 14.79 2.27 17.06
2033 14.92 2.27 17.19
2034 15.02 2.27 17.28
2035 15.09 2.27 17.36
2036 15.15 2.28 17.43
2037 15.20 2.28 17.48
2038 15.23 2.28 17.50
2039 15.23 2.28 17.51
2040 15.22 2.29 17.51
2041 15.20 2.31 17.51
2042 15.19 2.32 17.51
2043 15.17 2.34 17.51
2044 15.15 2.36 17.51
2045 15.14 2.37 17.51
2046 15.13 2.38 17.51
2047 15.14 2.39 17.52
2048 15.14 2.39 17.53
2049 15.15 2.39 17.54
2050 15.15 2.40 17.55
2051 15.16 2.41 17.57
2052 15.18 2.41 17.60
2053 15.20 2.42 17.62
2054 15.22 2.43 17.65
2055 15.25 2.43 17.68
2056 15.29 2.43 17.72
2057 15.32 2.43 17.76
2058 15.36 2.43 17.79
2059 15.40 2.43 17.83
2060 15.44 2.43 17.87
2061 15.48 2.43 17.90
2062 15.52 2.43 17.95
2063 15.56 2.43 18.00
2064 15.60 2.44 18.04
2065 15.65 2.44 18.09
2066 15.69 2.45 18.14
2067 15.74 2.45 18.19
2068 15.80 2.45 18.25
2069 15.85 2.45 18.30
2070 15.90 2.44 18.35
2071 15.95 2.44 18.39
2072 15.98 2.44 18.43
2073 16.02 2.45 18.47
2074 16.06 2.45 18.51
2075 16.09 2.46 18.54
2076 16.12 2.46 18.58
2077 16.16 2.46 18.62
2078 16.20 2.47 18.66
2079 16.23 2.47 18.70
2080 16.27 2.47 18.74
SOURCE: 2006 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
NOTES: OASI = Old-Age and Survivor's Insurance; DI = Disability Insurance; OASDI = Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.
OASDI total may not equal the sum of OASI and DI because of rounding.
Table equivalent for Chart 6. OASDI income, cost, and expenditures as percentages of taxable payroll, projected under the intermediate cost assumption 2006–2080
Year Income Cost Expenditures a
2006 12.74 11.22 11.22
2007 12.75 11.15 11.15
2008 12.80 11.10 11.10
2009 12.77 11.16 11.16
2010 12.79 11.29 11.29
2011 12.84 11.40 11.40
2012 12.87 11.63 11.63
2013 12.90 11.91 11.91
2014 12.91 12.19 12.19
2015 12.93 12.48 12.48
2016 12.95 12.76 12.76
2017 12.97 13.07 13.07
2018 12.99 13.37 13.37
2019 13.01 13.68 13.68
2020 13.02 13.99 13.99
2021 13.04 14.30 14.30
2022 13.06 14.60 14.60
2023 13.08 14.90 14.90
2024 13.10 15.20 15.20
2025 13.11 15.50 15.50
2026 13.13 15.78 15.78
2027 13.15 16.05 16.05
2028 13.16 16.30 16.30
2029 13.18 16.52 16.52
2030 13.19 16.71 16.71
2031 13.20 16.89 16.89
2032 13.22 17.06 17.06
2033 13.23 17.19 17.19
2034 13.23 17.28 17.28
2035 13.24 17.36 17.36
2036 13.24 17.43 17.43
2037 13.25 17.48 17.48
2038 13.25 17.50 17.50
2039 13.26 17.51 17.51
2040 13.26 17.51 13.26
2041 13.26 17.51 13.26
2042 13.26 17.51 13.26
2043 13.26 17.51 13.26
2044 13.26 17.51 13.26
2045 13.26 17.51 13.26
2046 13.27 17.51 13.27
2047 13.27 17.52 13.27
2048 13.27 17.53 13.27
2049 13.27 17.54 13.27
2050 13.27 17.55 13.27
2051 13.28 17.57 13.28
2052 13.28 17.60 13.28
2053 13.28 17.62 13.28
2054 13.28 17.65 13.28
2055 13.29 17.68 13.29
2056 13.29 17.72 13.29
2057 13.29 17.76 13.29
2058 13.29 17.79 13.29
2059 13.30 17.83 13.30
2060 13.30 17.87 13.30
2061 13.30 17.90 13.30
2062 13.31 17.95 13.31
2063 13.31 18.00 13.31
2064 13.31 18.04 13.31
2065 13.31 18.09 13.31
2066 13.32 18.14 13.32
2067 13.32 18.19 13.32
2068 13.32 18.25 13.32
2069 13.33 18.30 13.33
2070 13.33 18.35 13.33
2071 13.33 18.39 13.33
2072 13.34 18.43 13.34
2073 13.34 18.47 13.34
2074 13.34 18.51 13.34
2075 13.34 18.54 13.34
2076 13.35 18.58 13.35
2077 13.35 18.62 13.35
2078 13.35 18.66 13.35
2079 13.35 18.70 13.35
2080 13.36 18.74 13.36
SOURCE: 2006 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds.
NOTE: OASDI = Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance
a. Expenditure rate equals cost rate until 2039, when Trust Funds are projected to be exhausted. Beginning 2040, expenditure rate cannot exceed income rate.