Distributional Effects of Increasing the Benefit Computation Period

by Mark Sarney
Policy Brief No. 2008-02 (released August 2008)
Table equivalent for Chart 1 Average percentage differences from scheduled benefits level off under both options for all beneficiaries aged 62 and older
Year 38 years 40 years Payable
2025 -2.0 -3.0 0.0
2026 -2.0 -3.1 0.0
2027 -2.1 -3.2 0.0
2028 -2.1 -3.3 0.0
2029 -2.2 -3.4 0.0
2030 -2.2 -3.5 0.0
2031 -2.3 -3.6 0.0
2032 -2.3 -3.7 0.0
2033 -2.3 -3.7 0.0
2034 -2.4 -3.8 0.0
2035 -2.4 -3.8 0.0
2036 -2.4 -3.9 0.0
2037 -2.4 -3.9 0.0
2038 -2.4 -3.9 0.0
2039 -2.5 -4.0 0.0
2040 -2.5 -4.0 0.0
2041 -2.5 -4.0 0.0
2042 -2.5 -4.0 -18.4
2043 -2.5 -4.1 -26.9
2044 -2.5 -4.1 -26.9
2045 -2.5 -4.1 -26.9
2046 -2.5 -4.1 -27.0
2047 -2.5 -4.1 -27.0
2048 -2.5 -4.1 -27.1
2049 -2.5 -4.1 -27.1
2050 -2.5 -4.1 -27.2
2051 -2.5 -4.1 -27.4
2052 -2.5 -4.1 -27.6
2053 -2.5 -4.1 -27.7
2054 -2.5 -4.1 -27.9
2055 -2.5 -4.2 -28.1
2056 -2.5 -4.2 -28.3
2057 -2.5 -4.1 -28.6
2058 -2.5 -4.1 -28.8
2059 -2.5 -4.2 -29.0
2060 -2.5 -4.2 -29.2
2061 -2.5 -4.1 -29.4
2062 -2.5 -4.1 -29.6
2063 -2.5 -4.1 -29.8
2064 -2.5 -4.1 -30.0
2065 -2.5 -4.1 -30.2
2066 -2.5 -4.1 -30.4
2067 -2.5 -4.1 -30.6
2068 -2.5 -4.1 -30.8
2069 -2.5 -4.1 -31.0
2070 -2.5 -4.2 -31.2
2071 -2.5 -4.1 -31.3
2072 -2.5 -4.1 -31.5
2073 -2.5 -4.2 -31.6
2074 -2.5 -4.1 -31.8
2075 -2.5 -4.1 -31.9
2076 -2.5 -4.1 -32.1
2077 -2.5 -4.1 -32.3
2078 -2.5 -4.1 -32.4
2079 -2.5 -4.2 -32.6
SOURCE: Author's calculations from MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) data.
Table equivalent for Chart 2 Progressivity would not change
Year Scheduled Payable 38 years 40 years
1940 17.60% 17.70% 17.60% 17.60%
1945 17.50% 17.60% 17.60% 17.60%
1950 15.20% 15.30% 15.20% 15.20%
1955 14.80% 15.00% 14.70% 14.70%
1960 14.80% 15.20% 14.70% 14.60%
1965 14.90% 15.60% 14.80% 14.80%
1970 14.70% 15.60% 14.50% 14.50%
1975 15.10% 16.70% 14.90% 14.90%
1980 16.40% 18.70% 16.30% 16.30%
1985 18.40% 20.70% 18.30% 18.30%
1990 16.90% 18.80% 16.80% 16.70%
1995 16.80% 18.40% 16.70% 16.70%
2000 17.20% 18.40% 17.10% 17.10%
2005 16.90% 17.80% 16.80% 16.70%
2010 17.20% 17.80% 17.00% 17.00%
2015 17.60% 18.20% 17.50% 17.40%
2020 16.60% 17.10% 16.50% 16.40%
SOURCE: Author's calculations from MINT (Modeling Income in the Near Term) data.