Table 2—Johnson Proposal:
Sensitivity Analysis—Low Yield=LT Treasury Bond
Phased Participation
No Taxation of Recognition Bond or Individual Account Distributions

Individual Account Contribution Rate: 6.2%
Benefit Offset: 0.0%

Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.00
Ultimate Real IA Yield Rate of 2.70
Annuity Net Real Yield Rate of 2.70
Year
Cost
Rate
Income
Rate
Annual
Balance
TFR1
1-1-yr
General
Revenue
Reimbursement
for Minimum
Benefit
"Effective"
Change
in OASDI
Contribution
Rate
"Effective"
OASDI
Contribution
Rate
General
Revenue
Transfer
Solvency
Individual
Account
Contribution
Rate
2004
11.07
12.71
1.64
306
   
12.40
 
0.00
2005
10.87
8.72
-2.15
325
0.00
-4.005
8.40
 
4.00
2006
10.77
8.36
-2.41
310
0.00
-0.373
8.02
 
4.38
2007
10.75
8.23
-2.51
290
0.00
-0.142
7.88
 
4.52
2008
10.80
8.14
-2.65
267
0.00
-0.127
7.75
 
4.65
2009
10.95
8.01
-2.94
241
0.00
-0.125
7.63
 
4.77
2010
11.08
7.91
-3.18
214
0.00
-0.122
7.51
 
4.89
2011
11.25
7.83
-3.41
184
0.00
-0.126
7.38
 
5.02
2012
11.43
7.75
-3.68
154
0.00
-0.110
7.27
 
5.13
2013
11.67
9.18
-2.50
121
0.00
1.403
8.67
1.5
5.23
2014
11.89
11.98
0.09
100
0.00
2.787
11.46
4.4
5.34
2015
12.13
12.21
0.08
100
0.01
0.212
11.67
4.7
5.43
2016
13.12
13.03
-0.09
100
0.01
0.809
12.48
5.6
5.53
2017
13.77
13.65
-0.12
100
0.01
0.618
13.10
6.3
5.61
2018
14.41
14.28
-0.13
100
0.01
0.624
13.72
7.0
5.69
2019
15.03
14.82
-0.21
100
0.01
0.537
14.26
7.6
5.75
2020
15.59
15.37
-0.23
100
0.01
0.541
14.80
8.2
5.81
2021
15.55
15.25
-0.30
100
0.02
-0.120
14.68
8.1
5.88
2022
15.81
15.45
-0.36
100
0.02
0.208
14.89
8.4
5.93
2023
16.00
15.70
-0.30
100
0.02
0.257
15.15
8.7
5.97
2024
16.06
15.65
-0.41
100
0.02
-0.039
15.11
8.7
6.02
2025
16.02
15.52
-0.51
100
0.02
-0.129
14.98
8.6
6.05
2026
15.99
15.37
-0.62
100
0.03
-0.128
14.85
8.5
6.08
2027
16.95
16.43
-0.51
100
0.03
1.077
15.93
9.6
6.10
2028
17.07
16.50
-0.57
100
0.03
0.084
16.01
9.7
6.12
2029
16.96
16.37
-0.59
100
0.04
-0.113
15.90
9.6
6.14
2030
16.76
16.14
-0.62
100
0.04
-0.209
15.69
9.4
6.15
2031
16.65
16.11
-0.53
100
0.04
-0.006
15.68
9.4
6.16
2032
15.76
15.19
-0.58
100
0.04
-0.903
14.78
8.5
6.16
2033
14.97
14.40
-0.57
100
0.05
-0.762
14.02
7.7
6.17
2034
14.18
13.64
-0.54
100
0.05
-0.742
13.28
7.0
6.17
2035
13.44
13.02
-0.42
100
0.05
-0.602
12.67
6.4
6.18
2036
12.72
12.20
-0.53
100
0.06
-0.804
11.87
5.6
6.19
2037
11.98
11.50
-0.48
100
0.06
-0.673
11.20
4.9
6.19
2038
11.27
10.85
-0.41
100
0.07
-0.632
10.57
4.3
6.20
2039
10.55
10.14
-0.41
100
0.07
-0.696
9.87
3.6
6.20
2040
9.87
9.49
-0.38
100
0.07
-0.636
9.23
3.0
6.20
2041
9.21
8.85
-0.36
100
0.08
-0.626
8.61
2.3
6.20
2042
8.58
8.28
-0.30
100
0.08
-0.556
8.05
1.8
6.20
2043
8.00
7.66
-0.34
100
0.09
-0.606
7.45
1.2
6.20
2044
7.45
7.09
-0.37
100
0.09
-0.556
6.89
0.6
6.20
2045
6.84
6.58
-0.26
100
0.10
-0.495
6.40
0.1
6.20
2046
6.34
6.47
0.13
100
0.10
-0.095
6.30
 
6.20
2047
5.87
6.47
0.60
108
0.10
0.004
6.30
 
6.20
2048
5.43
6.46
1.03
127
0.11
0.004
6.31
 
6.20
2049
5.03
6.46
1.44
156
0.11
0.004
6.31
 
6.20
2050
3.99
6.46
2.47
199
0.12
0.004
6.32
 
6.20
2051
3.89
6.46
2.57
270
0.12
0.004
6.32
 
6.20
2052
3.80
6.46
2.66
347
0.12
0.004
6.32
 
6.20
2053
3.73
6.46
2.73
430
0.13
0.003
6.33
 
6.20
2054
3.67
6.46
2.79
518
0.13
0.003
6.33
 
6.20
2055
3.62
6.46
2.84
610
0.13
0.003
6.33
 
6.20
2056
3.58
6.46
2.88
705
0.13
0.002
6.33
 
6.20
2057
3.54
6.46
2.92
805
0.14
0.002
6.34
 
6.20
2058
3.51
6.46
2.95
908
0.14
0.002
6.34
 
6.20
2059
3.48
6.46
2.98
1,014
0.14
0.001
6.34
 
6.20
2060
3.43
6.46
3.02
1,130
0.14
0.001
6.34
 
6.20
2061
3.43
6.46
3.03
1,238
0.14
0.000
6.34
 
6.20
2062
3.42
6.46
3.03
1,347
0.14
0.000
6.34
 
6.20
2063
3.42
6.46
3.03
1,458
0.14
-0.001
6.34
 
6.20
2064
3.42
6.46
3.03
1,570
0.14
-0.001
6.34
 
6.20
2065
3.42
6.45
3.03
1,684
0.14
-0.002
6.34
 
6.20
2066
3.42
6.45
3.03
1,800
0.14
-0.002
6.34
 
6.20
2067
3.42
6.45
3.03
1,921
0.13
-0.002
6.33
 
6.20
2068
3.41
6.45
3.04
2,046
0.13
-0.003
6.33
 
6.20
2069
3.40
6.44
3.05
2,172
0.13
-0.003
6.33
 
6.20
2070
3.40
6.44
3.04
2,299
0.12
-0.003
6.32
 
6.20
2071
3.39
6.44
3.04
2,428
0.12
-0.003
6.32
 
6.20
2072
3.39
6.43
3.04
2,560
0.12
-0.004
6.32
 
6.20
2073
3.39
6.43
3.04
2,694
0.11
-0.004
6.31
 
6.20
2074
3.38
6.43
3.04
2,831
0.11
-0.004
6.31
 
6.20
2075
3.38
6.42
3.04
2,971
0.11
-0.004
6.31
 
6.20
2076
3.37
6.42
3.04
3,114
0.10
-0.004
6.30
 
6.20
2077
3.37
6.41
3.04
3,259
0.10
-0.004
6.30
 
6.20
2078
3.36
6.41
3.04
3,409
0.09
-0.004
6.29
 
6.20
2079
3.36
6.40
3.04
3,561
0.09
-0.004
6.29
 
6.20
2004 -
2078
Summarized OASDI
 
Cost Rate
Income Rate
Actuarial
Balance
Change in
Actuarial
Balance
10.21
11.03
0.82
2.70

1TFR computed as TF assets divided by annual cost excluding RB payments.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report With Ultimate Real Trust Fund Interest Rate of 3.00

Office of the Chief Actuary
Social Security Administration
February 11, 2005

Return to memorandum List of memos