The Social Security program provides income to retired workers and their families, qualifying disabled workers and their families, and survivors of workers. The progressivity of the Social Security benefit formula allows individuals with lower earnings to receive monthly benefits that are a higher percentage of such earnings compared to that percentage for those with higher earnings. For a group of example workers with a range of full-lifetime average earnings levels 1 at various ages in 2009, this note displays their current earnings in 2008, their full-lifetime earnings, and the amounts they would expect to receive at benefit entitlement.
The assumptions underlying the attached tables are similar to those used in the annual Social Security statement mailed to workers and former workers aged 25 and older. Specifically, the benefit amounts reflect no increase in the cost of living or in the average wage level after 2008. Thus, the benefit estimates for workers retiring in future years are on a roughly comparable basis to the benefit estimates for disabled workers and survivors of deceased workers, which both assume benefit entitlement in 2009.
All example workers , except the steady maximum, 2 are assumed to have scaled earnings patterns beginning at age 21. These patterns reflect the actual experience of insured workers during 1991-2005, which show relatively low wages and probability of work at younger and older ages and higher relative wages and probability of work at mid-career 3 Earnings levels after 2008 for scaled workers illustrated in this note are not assumed to increase due to changes in the average wage level, but are assumed to follow the scaled earnings pattern as age increases. It is important to note that this approach for determining future earnings differs from that used in the annual Social Security statement.
Four tables are attached. The tables allow workers to look up estimated future benefits consistent with their earnings in 2008 and age in 2009. Each table lists earnings in 2008 at various ages and annual benefit amounts at entitlement for example workers with full-lifetime earnings levels of: $10,000, $20,000, $30,000, $40,000, $50,000, $60,000, and the taxable maximum. As mentioned above, the benefit amounts assume no increase in the cost of living or the average wage after 2008. Additional information about each table is provided below.
1 The full-lifetime average earnings level reflects the average of the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings (wage-indexed to 2007) expected for the illustration assuming that the worker survives to age 65 without becoming disabled.
2 For the maximum worker, earnings start at age 22 and are assumed to equal the taxable maximum (the OASDI benefit and contribution base) for each year through 2007. Earnings after 2007 are assumed to equal the taxable maximum of $97,500 for 2007.
3 For more details on development of the scaled earnings patterns, see Actuarial Notes 2009.3, located at: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2009-3.html.
Age in 2009
|
Age at
benefit entitlement (NRA) |
Estimated earnings in 2008 and benefit at
entitlement (NRA)
|
|||||||
25 |
67 |
Earnings in 2008 |
$5,745 |
$11,489 |
$17,234 |
$22,979 |
$28,724 |
$34,468 |
$102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,532 |
11,724 |
14,928 |
18,132 |
21,324 |
23,760 |
30,060 |
||
35 |
67 |
Earnings in 2008 |
9,717 | 19,435 | 29,152 | 38,869 | 48,586 | 58,304 | 102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,532 |
11,724 |
14,928 |
18,132 |
21,324 |
23,760 |
30,108 |
||
45 |
67 |
Earnings in 2008 |
10,966 |
21,932 |
32,898 |
43,864 |
54,831 |
65,797 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,532 |
11,724 |
14,928 |
18,132 |
21,324 |
23,760 |
30,132 |
||
55 |
66 |
Earnings in 2008 |
10,633 |
21,266 |
31,899 |
42,532 |
53,165 |
63,799 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,532 |
11,724 |
14,928 |
18,132 |
21,324 |
23,760 |
30,000 |
||
65 |
66 |
Earnings in 2008 |
6,988 |
13,976 |
20,964 |
27,952 |
34,941 |
41,929 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,172 |
11,232 |
14,304 |
17,376 |
20,448 |
22,752 |
28,140 |
||
Full-lifetime earnings level
3 |
10,000 |
20,000 |
30,000 |
40,000 |
50,000 |
60,000 |
Maximum |
||
Percent of fully insured workers with career average earnings at this
level or below
4
|
11 |
26 |
42 |
57 |
69 |
79 |
100 |
1 The assumptions underlying the above benefit estimates are similar to those used for the Social Security Statement. These estimates reflect no increase in the cost of living or average wage and earnings levels after December 2008. However, earnings after 2008 follow scaled earnings patterns as age increases. (These assumptions are not consistent with those used for table VI.F10 of the 2009 Trustees Report.) 2 Scaled earnings patterns starting at age 21 are assumed for all but the maximum worker. These patterns reflect the actual experience of insured workers during 1991-2005. For the maximum worker, earnings start at age 22 and are assumed to equal the taxable maximum (the OASDI benefit and contribution base) for each year through 2008. (For 2008, this amount was $102,000.) For more details on the scaled-earnings patterns see Actuarial Note Number 2009.3, located at: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2009-3.html. 3 The full-lifetime earnings level reflects the average of the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings (wage-indexed to 2008) expected for the illustration assuming the worker survives to age 65 without becoming disabled. 4 Based on a 1% sample of actual earnings histories for individuals aged 25 through 65 who are fully insured in 2006. |
Age in 2009 |
Age at benefit entitlement |
Estimated earnings in 2008 and benefit at entitlement (Age 65)
|
|||||||
25 |
65 |
Earnings in 2008 |
$5,745 |
$11,489 |
$17,234 |
$22,979 |
$28,724 |
$34,468 |
$102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
7,392 |
10,164 |
12,936 |
15,708 |
18,480 |
20,592 |
26,052 |
||
35 |
65 |
Earnings in 2008 |
9,717 |
19,435 |
29,152 |
38,869 |
48,586 |
58,304 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
7,392 |
10,164 |
12,936 |
15,708 |
18,480 |
20,592 |
26,088 |
||
45 |
65 |
Earnings in 2008 |
10,966 |
21,932 |
32,898 |
43,864 |
54,831 |
65,797 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
7,392 |
10,164 |
12,936 |
15,708 |
18,480 |
20,592 |
26,100 |
||
55 |
65 |
Earnings in 2008 |
10,633 |
21,266 |
31,899 |
42,532 |
53,165 |
63,799 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
7,956 |
10,944 |
13,932 |
16,920 |
19,908 |
22,176 |
27,984 |
||
65 |
65 |
Earnings in 2008 |
6,988 |
13,976 |
20,964 |
27,952 |
34,941 |
41,929 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
7,620 |
10,488 |
13,356 |
16,212 |
19,080 |
21,228 |
26,064 |
||
Full-lifetime earnings level
3
|
10,000 |
20,000 |
30,000 |
40,000 |
50,000 |
60,000 |
Maximum |
||
Percent of fully insured workers with career average earnings at this
level or below
4
|
11 |
26 |
42 |
57 |
69 |
79 |
100 |
1 The assumptions underlying the above benefit estimates are similar to those used for the Social Security Statement. These estimates reflect no increase in the cost of living or average wage and earnings levels after December 2008. However, earnings after 2008 follow scaled earnings patterns as age increases. (These assumptions are not consistent with those used for table VI.F10 of the 2009 Trustees Report.) 2 Scaled earnings patterns starting at age 21 are assumed for all but the maximum worker. These patterns reflect the actual experience of insured workers during 1991-2005. For the maximum worker, earnings start at age 22 and are assumed to equal the taxable maximum (the OASDI benefit and contribution base) for each year through 2008. (For 2008, this amount was $102,000.) For more details on the scaled-earnings patterns see Actuarial Notes Number 2009.3, located at: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2009-3.html. 3 The full-lifetime earnings level reflects the average of the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings (wage-indexed to 2008) expected for the illustration assuming the worker survives to age 65 without becoming disabled. 4 Based on a 1% sample of actual earnings histories for individuals aged 25 through 65 who are fully insured in 2006. |
Age at benefit entitlement in 2009 |
Earnings in 2008 and benefit for 2009 |
|||||||
25 |
Earnings in 2008 |
$5,745 |
$11,489 |
$17,234 |
$22,979 |
$28,724 |
$34,468 |
$102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
4,284 |
8,220 |
9,756 |
11,280 |
12,816 |
14,340 |
29,220 |
|
35 |
Earnings in 2008 |
9,717 |
19,435 |
29,152 |
38,869 |
48,586 |
58,304 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
7,128 |
10,248 |
12,792 |
15,324 |
17,868 |
20,412 |
29,196 |
|
45 |
Earnings in 2008 |
10,966 |
21,932 |
32,898 |
43,864 |
54,831 |
65,797 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,148 |
11,136 |
14,112 |
17,100 |
20,076 |
22,704 |
29,196 |
|
55 |
Earnings in 2008 |
10,633 |
21,266 |
31,899 |
42,532 |
53,165 |
63,799 |
102,000 |
Benefit at entitlement |
8,340 |
11,496 |
14,664 |
17,832 |
21,000 |
23,220 |
28,932 |
|
Full-lifetime earnings level2
|
10,000 |
20,000 |
30,000 |
40,000 |
50,000 |
60,000 |
Maximum |
|
Percent of disability insured workers with career earnings at this
level or below
3
|
6 |
20 |
36 |
53 |
67 |
77 |
100 |
1 Scaled earnings patterns starting at age 21 are assumed for all but the maximum worker. These patterns reflect the actual experience of insured workers during 1991-2005. For the maximum worker, earnings start at age 22 and are assumed to equal the taxable maximum (the OASDI benefit and contribution base) for each year through 2008. (For 2008, this amount was $102,000.) For more details on the scaled-earnings patterns see Actuarial Notes Number 2009.3, located at: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2009-3.html. 2 The full-lifetime earnings level reflects the average of the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings (wage-indexed to 2008) expected for the illustration assuming the worker survives to age 65 without having become disabled. 3 Based on a 1% sample of actual earnings histories for individuals aged 25 through 64 who are disability insured in 2006. Note: These estimates reflect no increase in the cost of living after December 2008. |
Age of deceased spouse in 2009 |
Age of surviving spouse in 2009 |
Benefit at entitlement in 2009 and deceased spouse's earnings in 2008
|
|||||||
25 |
25 |
Spouse and one child |
$7,056 |
$12,792 |
$15,312 |
$17,808 |
$20,328 |
$22,848 |
$44,016 |
Child only |
3,528 |
6,396 |
7,656 |
8,904 |
10,164 |
11,424 |
22,008 |
||
Spouse and two children |
7,056 |
12,792 |
15,312 |
18,420 |
22,980 |
27,540 |
51,384 |
||
Earnings of deceased spouse in 2008
|
5,745 |
11,489 |
17,234 |
22,979 |
28,724 |
34,468 |
102,000 |
||
35 |
35 |
Spouse and one child |
11,568 |
15,984 |
20,112 |
24,240 |
28,344 |
32,472 |
44,016 |
Child only |
5,784 |
7,992 |
10,056 |
12,120 |
14,172 |
16,236 |
22,008 |
||
Spouse and two children |
11,580 |
15,996 |
22,572 |
30,048 |
34,140 |
37,896 |
51,360 |
||
Earnings of deceased spouse in 2008
|
9,717 |
19,435 |
29,152 |
38,869 |
48,586 |
58,304 |
102,000 |
||
45 |
45 |
Spouse and one child |
12,288 |
16,824 |
21,360 |
25,896 |
30,432 |
34,224 |
43,824 |
Child only |
6,144 |
8,412 |
10,680 |
12,948 |
15,216 |
17,112 |
21,912 |
||
Spouse and two children |
12,288 |
16,836 |
24,852 |
31,956 |
36,012 |
39,960 |
51,156 |
||
Earnings of deceased spouse in 2008
|
10,966 |
21,932 |
32,898 |
43,864 |
54,831 |
65,797 |
102,000 |
||
60 |
60 |
Spouse only |
5,940 |
8,184 |
10,428 |
12,672 |
14,916 |
16,548 |
20,292 |
Child only |
6,228 |
8,592 |
10,944 |
13,296 |
15,648 |
17,364 |
21,288 |
||
Spouse and two children |
12,468 |
17,244 |
25,788 |
32,568 |
36,780 |
40,524 |
49,692 |
||
Earnings of deceased spouse in 2008
|
8,920 |
17,841 |
26,761 |
35,682 |
44,602 |
53,522 |
102,000 |
||
Full-lifetime earnings level
2
|
10,000 |
20,000 |
30,000 |
40,000 |
50,000 |
60,000 |
Maximum |
||
Percent of fully or currently insured workers with career average
earnings at this level or below
3
|
12 |
27 |
43 |
57 |
70 |
79 |
100 |
1 Scaled earnings patterns starting at age 21 are assumed for all but the maximum worker. These patterns reflect the actual experience of insured workers during 1991-2005. For the maximum worker, earnings start at age 22 and are assumed to equal the taxable maximum (the OASDI benefit and contribution base) for each year through 2008. (For 2008, this amount was $102,000.) For more details on the scaled-earnings patterns see Actuarial Note Number 2009.3, located at: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2009-3.html. 2 The full-lifetime earnings level reflects the average of the highest 35 years of wage-indexed earnings (wage-indexed to 2008) expected for the illustration assuming the worker were to survive to age 65 without becoming disabled. 3 Based on a 1% sample of actual earnings histories for individuals aged 25 through 65 who are fully or currently insured in 2006. Note: These estimates reflect no increase in the cost of living after December 2008. |