Skip to content Social Security Online 
Actuarial Publications 
www.socialsecurity.gov  Home FAQs Contact Us 
Actuarial Publications 
Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program 
Description of Proposed Provisions:


Estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2014 Trustees Report
Printerfriendly Version (PDF) 
Change from present law [percent of payroll] 
Shortfall eliminated  

Longrange actuarial balance 
Annual balance in 75th year 
Longrange actuarial balance 
Annual balance in 75th year 

Present law shortfall in longrange actuarial balance is 2.88 percent of payroll and annual balance for the 75th year is 4.90 percent of payroll.  
A1 
Starting December 2015, reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point. graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  memo (Social Security Advisory Board) 
1.76  2.38  61%  49%  
A2 
Starting December 2015, reduce the annual COLA by 0.5 percentage point.
graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  memo (Social Security Advisory Board) 
0.91  1.25  32%  26%  
A3 
Starting December 2015, compute the COLA using a chained version of the
consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPIW). We estimate this
new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point,
on average.
graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  memo(FY 2014 Budget)  memo (Chaffetz)  memo (Becerra)  memo (Fiscal Commission)  memo (Bipartisan Policy Center)  memo (Social Security Advisory Board) 
0.56  0.76  19%  16%  
A4 
Starting December 2017, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price
index for wage and salary workers (CPIW). We estimate this new computation will reduce
the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average. The new COLA will not apply
to DI benefits. It will apply to OASI benefits, except for those of formerly disabledworkers
who converted to retiredworker status.
graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  memo (NRC/NAPA) 
0.41  0.56  14%  11%  
A5 
Starting December 2015, add 1 percentage point to the annual COLA for beneficiaries
who have lived past a "specified age". The "specified age" is the sum of: (1) 65
and (2) the unisex cohort life expectancy at age 65.
graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  memo (Senate Special Committee on Aging) 
0.09  0.11  3%  2%  
A6 
Starting December 2016, compute the COLA using the Consumer Price
Index for the Elderly (CPIE). We estimate this new computation will
increase the annual COLA by about 0.2 percentage point, on average.
graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  Larson  memo (Harkin 2013)  memo (Harkin 2012)  memo (Becerra)  memo (Deutch) 
0.38  0.54  13%  11%  
A7 
Starting December 2015, reduce the annual COLA by 1 percentage point, but not to
less than zero. In cases where the unreduced COLA is less than 1 percentage point,
do not carry over the unused reduction into future years.
graph  table  pdfgraph  pdftable  memo (Hutchison) 
1.65  2.25  57%  46% 
Privacy Policy
 Website Policies
& Other Important Information
 Site Map Last reviewed or modified September 19, 2014 