Projections
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Policy Option Projections

Below are our projections of the effects of various retirement policy proposals on Social Security beneficiaries. For each proposal, we also link to SSA's actuarial projections of the effects on the Social Security trust fund.

Compare all options »

  1. Benefit Formula
    Changes
  2. Cost of Living
    Adjustment Changes
  3. Covered Worker
    Changes
  4. Retirement
    Age Increases
  5. Taxation
    Changes

Taxation Changes

Details on current payroll tax rate and covered earnings »

Proposal Start/End Date(s) Proposed by? Projected Effects on…
Beneficiaries in… Trust Fundsa
Increase Social Security payroll tax from 12.4%
To 14.6% and then to 16.8% in 2054 2024/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT E1.2
Increase the earnings subject to taxation (also called tax max or contribution base)
  • Make all earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax, and
  • Include these earnings in benefit computations
 2012/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT E2.2
  • Make 90% of earnings subject to the Social Security payroll tax,
  • Include these earnings in benefit computations, and
  • Phase in from 2012 to 2021
 2012/NA SSAB 2030 |  2050 |  2070 OACT E3.1

NOTE: OACT = Office of the Chief Actuary, SSAB = Social Security Advisory Board.

a. Because the timing of OACT updates to Trust Fund projections may not coincide with the timing of our updates, the specifications used to make these projections (e.g., years and amounts) may differ.