Projections

Current Law Projections

  1. Early
    Eligibility Age
    Beneficiaries

  2. Oldest
    Old
  3. Scheduled
    vs. Payable
    Benefits
  4. Special
    Minimum
    Benefit
  5. Spousal-
    Only
    Beneficiaries
  6. Survivor-
    Only
    Beneficiaries
  7. Women
    & Dual
    Entitlement
  8. Why Will Poverty
    Decline for
    Beneficiaries?

Chart Descriptions - Why Will Poverty Decline for Social Security Beneficiaries Aged 60 and Older?

Released: April 2012
Next expected update: Spring 2014
Poverty Rate for Beneficiaries Aged 60 and Older, 2012–2080 (percent)
Year Scheduled benefits Payable benefits
2012 4.6 4.6
2013 4.5 4.5
2014 4.4 4.4
2015 4.3 4.3
2016 4.2 4.2
2017 3.8 3.8
2018 3.9 3.9
2019 3.8 3.8
2020 3.9 3.9
2021 3.8 3.8
2022 3.7 3.7
2023 3.7 3.7
2024 3.5 3.5
2025 3.5 3.5
2026 3.5 3.5
2027 3.4 3.4
2028 3.3 3.3
2029 3.3 3.3
2030 3.1 3.1
2031 3.1 3.1
2032 3.0 3.0
2033 2.9 2.9
2034 2.8 2.8
2035 2.8 2.8
2036 2.7 4.4
2037 2.7 4.7
2038 2.6 4.8
2039 2.5 4.6
2040 2.5 4.5
2041 2.5 4.4
2042 2.4 4.3
2043 2.4 4.1
2044 2.3 4.1
2045 2.1 3.9
2046 2.1 3.8
2047 2.0 3.6
2048 1.9 3.5
2049 1.9 3.5
2050 1.9 3.5
2051 1.8 3.2
2052 1.8 3.2
2053 1.8 3.2
2054 1.7 3.2
2055 1.8 3.1
2056 1.7 3.0
2057 1.7 2.9
2058 1.6 2.8
2059 1.5 2.8
2060 1.4 2.7
2061 1.4 2.7
2062 1.4 2.7
2063 1.3 2.5
2064 1.3 2.4
2065 1.3 2.4
2066 1.2 2.3
2067 1.2 2.4
2068 1.2 2.3
2069 1.1 2.2
2070 1.2 2.3
2071 1.1 2.2
2072 1.1 2.2
2073 1.0 2.1
2074 1.0 2.0
2075 1.0 2.0
2076 1.0 2.0
2077 1.0 1.9
2078 0.9 1.9
2079 0.9 1.8
2080 0.8 1.7
SOURCES: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 6 (MINT6) microsimulation model using 2011 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions. The 2011 Trustees Report projects tax rates will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of scheduled benefits after trust fund exhaustion in 2036, often referred to as payable benefits.
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Projected Average Wage and Price Growth, 2010–2020 (in thousands of dollars)
Year Projected price growth Projected average wage growth
2010 41.8 41.8
2011 42.4 43.5
2012 43.1 45.4
2013 43.9 47.5
2014 44.7 49.5
2015 45.6 51.4
2016 46.5 53.4
2017 47.6 55.6
2018 48.8 58.0
2019 50.2 60.4
2020 51.6 62.8
SOURCE: Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2011 Trustees Report.
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Projected Growth of Poverty-Level Income and the Poverty Threshold, 2010–2020 (in thousands of dollars)
Year Projected poverty threshold Wage-indexed 2010 aged poverty-level income
2010 10.5 10.5
2011 10.6 10.3
2012 10.8 10.6
2013 11.0 11.0
2014 11.2 11.5
2015 11.4 12.0
2016 11.6 12.5
2017 11.9 13.0
2018 12.2 13.5
2019 12.5 14.1
2020 12.9 14.7
SOURCE: Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2011 Trustees Report.
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