CATEGORY: COVERAGE CHANGES
PROPOSAL: Cover all newly hired state and local workers

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2070

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 0% 14% 1% 99%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 14% 1% 99%
Male 0% 0% 14% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 16% 0% 100%
White 0% 0% 13% 1% 99%
Black 0% 0% 15% 1% 99%
Other 0% 0% 16% 1% 99%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 14% 1% 99%
Foreign 0% 0% 15% 1% 99%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 16% 1% 99%
70-79 0% 0% 16% 1% 99%
80-89 0% 0% 12% 1% 99%
90+ 0% 0% 7% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 15% 1% 99%
Divorced 0% 0% 14% 1% 99%
Widowed 0% 0% 11% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 0% 15% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 21% 1% 99%
Bachelor 0% 0% 18% 1% 99%
Associate 0% 0% 12% 1% 99%
High School 0% 0% 12% 1% 99%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 12% 1% 99%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 14% 1% 99%
In poverty 0% 0% 18% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 0% 13% 1% 99%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 0% 14% 1% 99%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 0% 15% 1% 99%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 0% 15% 1% 99%
$0-$36,533 0% 0% 15% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 15% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 0% 12% 1% 99%
Spouse 0% 1% 17% 6% 94%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 14% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 100% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 100% 0% 100%
Male 0% 100% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 100% 0% 100%
White 0% 100% 0% 100%
Black 0% 100% 0% 100%
Other 0% 100% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 100% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 100% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 100% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 100% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 100% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 100% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 100% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 100% 0% 100%
High School 0% 100% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 100% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 100% 0% 100%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 100% 0% 100%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$36,533 0% 100% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 100% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 100% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 0% 11% 0% 63%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 11% 0% 65%
Male 0% 0% 10% 0% 61%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 12% 0% 65%
White 0% 0% 10% 0% 61%
Black 0% 0% 11% 1% 68%
Other 0% 0% 11% 0% 64%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 11% 0% 63%
Foreign 0% 0% 11% 0% 62%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 11% 0% 60%
70-79 0% 0% 13% 0% 65%
80-89 0% 0% 9% 0% 65%
90+ 0% 0% 5% 0% 59%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 12% 0% 56%
Divorced 0% 0% 10% 0% 70%
Widowed 0% 0% 7% 0% 68%
Never Married 0% 0% 11% 0% 72%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 15% 0% 63%
Bachelor 0% 0% 12% 0% 60%
Associate 0% 0% 10% 0% 67%
High School 0% 0% 9% 0% 63%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 9% 1% 63%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 11% 0% 63%
In poverty 0% 0% 15% 1% 85%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 29%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 50%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 0% 12% 0% 63%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 0% 13% 0% 80%
$0-$36,533 0% 0% 14% 0% 90%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 11% 0% 62%
Widow(er) 0% 0% 9% 0% 71%
Spouse 0% 0% 11% 0% 61%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 11% 0% 64%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 98% 0% 98%
Sex
Female 0% 98% 0% 98%
Male 0% 98% 0% 98%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 98% 0% 98%
White 0% 98% 0% 98%
Black 0% 98% 0% 99%
Other 0% 96% 0% 97%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 98% 0% 99%
Foreign 0% 96% 0% 97%
Age
60-69 0% 97% 0% 98%
70-79 0% 98% 0% 99%
80-89 0% 98% 0% 98%
90+ 0% 96% 0% 97%
Marital Status
Married 0% 98% 0% 99%
Divorced 0% 98% 0% 99%
Widowed 0% 97% 0% 98%
Never Married 0% 97% 0% 98%
Education
Graduate 0% 97% 0% 98%
Bachelor 0% 98% 0% 98%
Associate 0% 99% 0% 99%
High School 0% 98% 0% 98%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 97% 0% 98%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 98% 0% 99%
In poverty 4% 86% 3% 88%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 92% 0% 93%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 99% 0% 100%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 100% 0% 100%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$36,533 0% 98% 0% 98%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 98% 0% 98%
Widow(er) 0% 98% 0% 99%
Spouse 0% 98% 0% 99%
Disabled worker 0% 98% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 2.1% 2.0% -0.1% -128
Sex
Female 2.4% 2.3% -0.2% -87
Male 1.8% 1.7% -0.1% -40
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 2.9% 2.7% -0.2% -39
White 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -53
Black 4.2% 4.1% -0.1% -14
Other 2.3% 2.1% -0.2% -21
Country of Birth
U.S. 1.6% 1.5% -0.1% -81
Foreign 3.9% 3.7% -0.2% -46
Age
60-69 2.4% 2.2% -0.2% -45
70-79 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -39
80-89 2.1% 2.0% -0.1% -34
90+ 1.6% 1.5% -0.1% -9
Marital Status
Married 0.7% 0.7% -0.1% -25
Divorced 2.6% 2.5% -0.1% -28
Widowed 1.9% 1.9% -0.1% -11
Never Married 5.3% 4.9% -0.3% -62
Education
Graduate 0.8% 0.6% -0.1% -17
Bachelor 0.8% 0.7% -0.2% -36
Associate 1.5% 1.4% -0.1% -21
High School 2.9% 2.8% -0.1% -28
Less than 12 Yrs 5.5% 5.3% -0.2% -24
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 93.9% -6.1% -128
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$116,305 - $221,317 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$67,516 - $116,305 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$36,533 - $67,516 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -4
$0-$36,533 10.3% 9.7% -0.6% -123
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 2.2% 2.1% -0.1% -111
Widow(er) 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% -4
Spouse 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% -5
Disabled worker 3.2% 3.0% -0.2% -6
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Payable Option Change
Total 4.7% 2.0% -2.7% -2,663
Sex
Female 5.3% 2.3% -3.0% -1,566
Male 4.0% 1.7% -2.3% -1,097
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 6.3% 2.7% -3.6% -848
White 3.2% 1.3% -1.9% -1,059
Black 9.0% 4.1% -4.9% -491
Other 4.8% 2.1% -2.7% -264
Country of Birth
U.S. 3.9% 1.5% -2.4% -1,883
Foreign 7.2% 3.7% -3.6% -780
Age
60-69 4.9% 2.2% -2.6% -742
70-79 4.5% 1.9% -2.6% -958
80-89 4.9% 2.0% -2.9% -730
90+ 4.0% 1.5% -2.6% -232
Marital Status
Married 1.5% 0.7% -0.8% -364
Divorced 6.1% 2.5% -3.6% -740
Widowed 5.2% 1.9% -3.3% -503
Never Married 10.8% 4.9% -5.9% -1,054
Education
Graduate 1.6% 0.6% -1.0% -137
Bachelor 1.7% 0.7% -1.1% -234
Associate 3.7% 1.4% -2.3% -490
High School 6.6% 2.8% -3.8% -1,210
Less than 12 Yrs 11.0% 5.3% -5.7% -589
Official Poverty
Above poverty 2.6% 0.0% -2.6% -2,538
In poverty 99.8% 93.9% -5.9% -124
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4
$116,305 - $221,317 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -10
$67,516 - $116,305 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -25
$36,533 - $67,516 0.7% 0.2% -0.6% -111
$0-$36,533 22.3% 9.7% -12.6% -2,512
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 2.1% -2.6% -1,967
Widow(er) 4.5% 1.4% -3.1% -419
Spouse 4.0% 1.8% -2.2% -122
Disabled worker 6.8% 3.0% -3.8% -154
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 99,367 100.0 14,316 100.0 107 100.0 14,209 100.0
Sex
Female 51,669 52.0 7,541 52.7 79 73.1 7,462 52.5
Male 47,698 48.0 6,775 47.3 29 26.9 6,746 47.5
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 23.9 3,739 26.1 18 16.7 3,721 26.2
White 55,862 56.2 7,565 52.8 63 58.5 7,503 52.8
Black 10,043 10.1 1,490 10.4 15 14.4 1,475 10.4
Other 9,664 9.7 1,521 10.6 11 10.5 1,510 10.6
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 78.0 11,115 77.6 82 76.6 11,032 77.6
Foreign 21,888 22.0 3,202 22.4 25 23.4 3,176 22.4
Age
60-69 28,040 28.2 4,591 32.1 32 30.1 4,558 32.1
70-79 37,436 37.7 6,167 43.1 54 50.3 6,113 43.0
80-89 24,883 25.0 2,885 20.2 20 18.7 2,865 20.2
90+ 9,008 9.1 674 4.7 1 1.0 673 4.7
Marital Status
Married 45,743 46.0 6,988 48.8 82 76.6 6,905 48.6
Divorced 20,504 20.6 2,989 20.9 21 19.9 2,967 20.9
Widowed 15,160 15.3 1,636 11.4 1 0.8 1,635 11.5
Never Married 17,960 18.1 2,704 18.9 3 2.7 2,701 19.0
Education
Graduate 13,734 13.8 2,837 19.8 14 13.2 2,822 19.9
Bachelor 22,043 22.2 4,009 28.0 29 27.3 3,980 28.0
Associate 21,221 21.4 2,506 17.5 18 16.9 2,488 17.5
High School 31,969 32.2 3,752 26.2 32 29.6 3,720 26.2
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 10.5 1,213 8.5 14 12.9 1,199 8.4
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 97.9 13,945 97.4 106 98.3 13,839 97.4
In poverty 2,107 2.1 372 2.6 2 1.7 370 2.6
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 20.0 2,585 18.1 30 28.0 2,554 18.0
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 20.0 2,826 19.7 23 21.1 2,803 19.7
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 20.0 3,066 21.4 22 20.9 3,044 21.4
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 20.0 2,924 20.4 23 21.0 2,901 20.4
$0-$36,533 19,877 20.0 2,916 20.4 10 9.1 2,907 20.5
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 76.6 11,079 77.4 32 29.8 11,047 77.8
Widow(er) 13,655 13.7 1,672 11.7 12 11.1 1,660 11.7
Spouse 5,494 5.5 990 6.9 64 59.1 926 6.5
Disabled worker 4,069 4.1 575 4.0 . . . . . . 575 4.0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 99,367 100.0 99,367 100.0 10 100.0 99,357 100.0
Sex
Female 51,669 52.0 51,669 52.0 10 100.0 51,659 52.0
Male 47,698 48.0 47,698 48.0 . . . . . . 47,698 48.0
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 23.9 23,798 23.9 . . . . . . 23,798 24.0
White 55,862 56.2 55,862 56.2 10 100.0 55,852 56.2
Black 10,043 10.1 10,043 10.1 . . . . . . 10,043 10.1
Other 9,664 9.7 9,664 9.7 . . . . . . 9,664 9.7
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 78.0 77,479 78.0 10 100.0 77,469 78.0
Foreign 21,888 22.0 21,888 22.0 . . . . . . 21,888 22.0
Age
60-69 28,040 28.2 28,040 28.2 3 28.0 28,037 28.2
70-79 37,436 37.7 37,436 37.7 7 72.0 37,429 37.7
80-89 24,883 25.0 24,883 25.0 . . . . . . 24,883 25.0
90+ 9,008 9.1 9,008 9.1 . . . . . . 9,008 9.1
Marital Status
Married 45,743 46.0 45,743 46.0 . . . . . . 45,743 46.0
Divorced 20,504 20.6 20,504 20.6 9 85.4 20,495 20.6
Widowed 15,160 15.3 15,160 15.3 . . . . . . 15,160 15.3
Never Married 17,960 18.1 17,960 18.1 1 14.6 17,958 18.1
Education
Graduate 13,734 13.8 13,734 13.8 9 85.4 13,725 13.8
Bachelor 22,043 22.2 22,043 22.2 . . . . . . 22,043 22.2
Associate 21,221 21.4 21,221 21.4 . . . . . . 21,221 21.4
High School 31,969 32.2 31,969 32.2 . . . . . . 31,969 32.2
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 10.5 10,400 10.5 1 14.6 10,399 10.5
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 97.9 97,260 97.9 10 100.0 97,250 97.9
In poverty 2,107 2.1 2,107 2.1 . . . . . . 2,107 2.1
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 20.0 19,874 20.0 . . . . . . 19,874 20.0
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 20.0 19,873 20.0 3 28.6 19,870 20.0
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 20.0 19,873 20.0 6 56.8 19,868 20.0
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 20.0 19,870 20.0 1 14.6 19,869 20.0
$0-$36,533 19,877 20.0 19,877 20.0 . . . . . . 19,877 20.0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 76.6 76,149 76.6 10 100.0 76,139 76.6
Widow(er) 13,655 13.7 13,655 13.7 . . . . . . 13,655 13.7
Spouse 5,494 5.5 5,494 5.5 . . . . . . 5,494 5.5
Disabled worker 4,069 4.1 4,069 4.1 . . . . . . 4,069 4.1
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 99,367 0 99,536
Sex
Female 51,669 0 51,768
Male 47,698 0 47,768
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 0 23,831
White 55,862 0 55,943
Black 10,043 0 10,055
Other 9,664 0 9,707
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 0 77,612
Foreign 21,888 0 21,924
Age
60-69 28,040 0 28,141
70-79 37,436 0 37,488
80-89 24,883 0 24,894
90+ 9,008 0 9,013
Marital Status
Married 45,743 0 45,801
Divorced 20,504 0 20,528
Widowed 15,160 0 15,173
Never Married 17,960 0 18,034
Education
Graduate 13,734 0 13,772
Bachelor 22,043 0 22,073
Associate 21,221 0 21,265
High School 31,969 0 32,001
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 0 10,425
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 0 97,395
In poverty 2,107 0 2,141
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 0 19,904
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 0 19,917
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 0 19,902
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 0 19,886
$0-$36,533 19,877 0 19,928
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 0 0 76,149
Widow(er) 13,655 0 0 13,655
Spouse 5,494 0 0 5,494
Disabled worker 4,069 0 0 4,069
None 0 0 169
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2070: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 99,367 0 99,536
Sex
Female 51,669 0 51,768
Male 47,698 0 47,768
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 0 23,831
White 55,862 0 55,943
Black 10,043 0 10,055
Other 9,664 0 9,707
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 0 77,612
Foreign 21,888 0 21,924
Age
60-69 28,040 0 28,141
70-79 37,436 0 37,488
80-89 24,883 0 24,894
90+ 9,008 0 9,013
Marital Status
Married 45,743 0 45,801
Divorced 20,504 0 20,528
Widowed 15,160 0 15,173
Never Married 17,960 0 18,034
Education
Graduate 13,734 0 13,772
Bachelor 22,043 0 22,073
Associate 21,221 0 21,265
High School 31,969 0 32,001
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 0 10,425
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 0 97,395
In poverty 2,107 0 2,141
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 0 19,904
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 0 19,917
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 0 19,902
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 0 19,886
$0-$36,533 19,877 0 19,928
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 0 0 76,149
Widow(er) 13,655 0 0 13,655
Spouse 5,494 0 0 5,494
Disabled worker 4,069 0 0 4,069
None 0 0 169
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.