CATEGORY: COVERAGE CHANGES
PROPOSAL: Cover all newly hired state and local workers

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2050

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
Male 0% 0% 8% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 9% 1% 99%
White 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
Black 0% 0% 8% 1% 99%
Other 0% 0% 10% 1% 99%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
Foreign 0% 0% 10% 1% 99%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 10% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 0% 8% 1% 99%
80-89 0% 0% 5% 1% 99%
90+ 0% 0% 2% 2% 98%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 8% 1% 99%
Divorced 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
Widowed 0% 0% 5% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 0% 9% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 9% 1% 99%
Bachelor 0% 0% 10% 1% 99%
Associate 0% 0% 6% 0% 100%
High School 0% 0% 6% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 7% 2% 98%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
In poverty 0% 0% 10% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 0% 8% 1% 99%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 0% 7% 1% 99%
$0-$33,157 0% 0% 7% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 8% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 0% 5% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 1% 9% 7% 93%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 9% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 100% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 100% 0% 100%
Male 0% 100% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 100% 0% 100%
White 0% 100% 0% 100%
Black 0% 100% 0% 100%
Other 0% 100% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 100% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 100% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 100% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 100% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 100% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 100% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 100% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 100% 0% 100%
High School 0% 100% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 100% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 100% 0% 100%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 100% 0% 100%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$33,157 0% 100% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 100% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 100% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 0% 5% 0% 55%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 5% 0% 57%
Male 0% 0% 5% 0% 52%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 6% 0% 58%
White 0% 0% 4% 0% 51%
Black 0% 0% 6% 0% 66%
Other 0% 0% 6% 0% 56%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 4% 0% 53%
Foreign 0% 0% 7% 0% 58%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 7% 0% 55%
70-79 0% 0% 6% 0% 57%
80-89 0% 0% 3% 0% 51%
90+ 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 33%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 48%
Divorced 0% 0% 5% 0% 63%
Widowed 0% 0% 3% 0% 58%
Never Married 0% 0% 6% 0% 67%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 49%
Bachelor 0% 0% 6% 0% 52%
Associate 0% 0% 4% 0% 58%
High School 0% 0% 5% 0% 58%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 5% 0% 59%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 5% 0% 53%
In poverty 0% 0% 9% 1% 85%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 17%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 38%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 0% 5% 0% 57%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 0% 7% 0% 76%
$0-$33,157 0% 0% 7% 0% 86%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 5% 0% 54%
Widow(er) 0% 0% 3% 0% 60%
Spouse 0% 0% 5% 1% 51%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 7% 0% 60%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 97% 0% 97%
Sex
Female 0% 97% 0% 96%
Male 0% 97% 0% 98%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 97% 0% 97%
White 0% 97% 0% 97%
Black 1% 97% 0% 99%
Other 0% 95% 0% 98%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 97% 0% 98%
Foreign 0% 96% 0% 97%
Age
60-69 0% 96% 0% 97%
70-79 0% 98% 0% 98%
80-89 0% 97% 0% 97%
90+ 0% 94% 0% 94%
Marital Status
Married 0% 97% 0% 97%
Divorced 0% 97% 0% 97%
Widowed 0% 97% 0% 96%
Never Married 1% 96% 0% 98%
Education
Graduate 0% 95% 0% 97%
Bachelor 0% 97% 0% 97%
Associate 0% 98% 0% 97%
High School 0% 97% 0% 98%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 95% 0% 97%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 97% 0% 98%
In poverty 4% 85% 1% 92%
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0% 88% 0% 88%
$103,985 - $200,444 0% 99% 0% 99%
$60,527 - $103,985 0% 99% 0% 99%
$33,157 - $60,527 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$33,157 1% 97% 0% 99%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 97% 0% 98%
Widow(er) 0% 97% 0% 97%
Spouse 0% 96% 0% 97%
Disabled worker 0% 97% 0% 96%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 3.5% 3.4% -0.1% -67
Sex
Female 4.2% 4.1% -0.1% -49
Male 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% -17
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 5.0% 4.9% -0.1% -20
White 2.4% 2.4% -0.1% -34
Black 6.7% 6.5% -0.1% -10
Other 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% -2
Country of Birth
U.S. 2.8% 2.7% -0.1% -49
Foreign 5.9% 5.8% -0.1% -18
Age
60-69 4.4% 4.3% -0.1% -36
70-79 3.1% 3.1% -0.1% -24
80-89 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% -6
90+ 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% -16
Divorced 5.2% 5.1% -0.1% -20
Widowed 3.9% 3.8% -0.1% -10
Never Married 9.6% 9.4% -0.2% -20
Education
Graduate 1.3% 1.3% -0.1% -6
Bachelor 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% -6
Associate 2.6% 2.5% -0.1% -17
High School 5.0% 4.9% -0.1% -25
Less than 12 Yrs 8.8% 8.6% -0.2% -12
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 97.8% -2.2% -67
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -8
$103,985 - $200,444 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$60,527 - $103,985 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0
$33,157 - $60,527 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0
$0-$33,157 16.7% 16.4% -0.3% -59
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 3.5% 3.4% -0.1% -54
Widow(er) 3.1% 3.0% -0.1% -8
Spouse 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0
Disabled worker 5.5% 5.4% -0.1% -4
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Payable Option Change
Total 7.0% 3.4% -3.6% -3,117
Sex
Female 8.2% 4.1% -4.1% -1,900
Male 5.6% 2.7% -3.0% -1,217
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 9.4% 4.9% -4.5% -729
White 5.2% 2.4% -2.8% -1,527
Black 13.0% 6.5% -6.5% -617
Other 7.4% 4.1% -3.4% -243
Country of Birth
U.S. 6.1% 2.7% -3.4% -2,311
Foreign 9.9% 5.8% -4.1% -805
Age
60-69 8.1% 4.3% -3.8% -982
70-79 6.6% 3.1% -3.6% -1,137
80-89 6.6% 3.1% -3.5% -759
90+ 6.0% 2.9% -3.1% -238
Marital Status
Married 2.3% 1.2% -1.1% -504
Divorced 11.0% 5.1% -6.0% -995
Widowed 8.6% 3.8% -4.8% -737
Never Married 17.6% 9.4% -8.2% -880
Education
Graduate 2.2% 1.3% -1.0% -108
Bachelor 2.9% 1.4% -1.5% -307
Associate 5.9% 2.5% -3.4% -679
High School 9.8% 4.9% -5.0% -1,417
Less than 12 Yrs 16.2% 8.6% -7.5% -605
Official Poverty
Above poverty 3.6% 0.0% -3.6% -3,050
In poverty 100.0% 97.8% -2.2% -67
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -16
$103,985 - $200,444 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -14
$60,527 - $103,985 0.5% 0.2% -0.3% -51
$33,157 - $60,527 1.2% 0.4% -0.9% -150
$0-$33,157 32.8% 16.4% -16.5% -2,884
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 6.5% 3.4% -3.1% -2,052
Widow(er) 8.1% 3.0% -5.1% -638
Spouse 6.9% 3.3% -3.6% -204
Disabled worker 11.5% 5.4% -6.0% -223
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 87,563 100.0 6,531 100.0 48 100.0 6,484 100.0
Sex
Female 46,454 53.1 3,421 52.4 37 78.7 3,383 52.2
Male 41,108 46.9 3,111 47.6 10 21.3 3,101 47.8
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 18.4 1,402 21.5 9 18.6 1,393 21.5
White 54,725 62.5 3,627 55.5 26 54.9 3,601 55.5
Black 9,521 10.9 799 12.2 4 9.3 795 12.3
Other 7,231 8.3 704 10.8 8 17.2 695 10.7
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 77.3 4,584 70.2 33 69.7 4,551 70.2
Foreign 19,898 22.7 1,948 29.8 14 30.3 1,933 29.8
Age
60-69 25,830 29.5 2,648 40.5 11 23.2 2,637 40.7
70-79 32,047 36.6 2,623 40.2 23 47.3 2,600 40.1
80-89 21,891 25.0 1,069 16.4 11 22.5 1,058 16.3
90+ 7,795 8.9 192 2.9 3 7.0 189 2.9
Marital Status
Married 44,755 51.1 3,565 54.6 33 70.0 3,531 54.5
Divorced 16,656 19.0 1,255 19.2 11 23.9 1,244 19.2
Widowed 15,365 17.5 733 11.2 3 6.1 730 11.3
Never Married 10,786 12.3 978 15.0 . . . . . . 978 15.1
Education
Graduate 11,012 12.6 1,046 16.0 12 26.2 1,034 15.9
Bachelor 20,209 23.1 2,005 30.7 14 30.4 1,991 30.7
Associate 19,742 22.5 1,118 17.1 4 7.3 1,115 17.2
High School 28,574 32.6 1,814 27.8 9 18.7 1,806 27.8
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 9.2 547 8.4 8 17.3 539 8.3
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 96.5 6,220 95.2 48 100.0 6,172 95.2
In poverty 3,064 3.5 311 4.8 . . . . . . 311 4.8
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 20.0 1,198 18.3 14 29.2 1,184 18.3
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 20.0 1,449 22.2 11 23.1 1,438 22.2
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 20.0 1,310 20.1 11 22.7 1,299 20.0
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 20.0 1,303 20.0 8 17.4 1,295 20.0
$0-$33,157 17,513 20.0 1,271 19.5 4 7.7 1,267 19.5
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 75.0 5,010 76.7 6 12.6 5,004 77.2
Widow(er) 12,506 14.3 644 9.9 3 6.1 641 9.9
Spouse 5,677 6.5 529 8.1 39 81.3 490 7.6
Disabled worker 3,693 4.2 348 5.3 . . . . . . 348 5.4
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 87,563 100.0 87,563 100.0 1 100.0 87,562 100.0
Sex
Female 46,454 53.1 46,454 53.1 1 100.0 46,454 53.1
Male 41,108 46.9 41,108 46.9 . . . . . . 41,108 46.9
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 18.4 16,087 18.4 1 100.0 16,086 18.4
White 54,725 62.5 54,725 62.5 . . . . . . 54,725 62.5
Black 9,521 10.9 9,521 10.9 . . . . . . 9,521 10.9
Other 7,231 8.3 7,231 8.3 . . . . . . 7,231 8.3
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 77.3 67,665 77.3 . . . . . . 67,665 77.3
Foreign 19,898 22.7 19,898 22.7 1 100.0 19,897 22.7
Age
60-69 25,830 29.5 25,830 29.5 1 100.0 25,830 29.5
70-79 32,047 36.6 32,047 36.6 . . . . . . 32,047 36.6
80-89 21,891 25.0 21,891 25.0 . . . . . . 21,891 25.0
90+ 7,795 8.9 7,795 8.9 . . . . . . 7,795 8.9
Marital Status
Married 44,755 51.1 44,755 51.1 1 100.0 44,754 51.1
Divorced 16,656 19.0 16,656 19.0 . . . . . . 16,656 19.0
Widowed 15,365 17.5 15,365 17.5 . . . . . . 15,365 17.5
Never Married 10,786 12.3 10,786 12.3 . . . . . . 10,786 12.3
Education
Graduate 11,012 12.6 11,012 12.6 . . . . . . 11,012 12.6
Bachelor 20,209 23.1 20,209 23.1 . . . . . . 20,209 23.1
Associate 19,742 22.5 19,742 22.5 . . . . . . 19,742 22.5
High School 28,574 32.6 28,574 32.6 1 100.0 28,574 32.6
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 9.2 8,026 9.2 . . . . . . 8,026 9.2
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 96.5 84,498 96.5 1 100.0 84,498 96.5
In poverty 3,064 3.5 3,064 3.5 . . . . . . 3,064 3.5
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 20.0 17,512 20.0 . . . . . . 17,512 20.0
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 20.0 17,512 20.0 1 100.0 17,512 20.0
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 20.0 17,514 20.0 . . . . . . 17,514 20.0
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 20.0 17,511 20.0 . . . . . . 17,511 20.0
$0-$33,157 17,513 20.0 17,513 20.0 . . . . . . 17,513 20.0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 75.0 65,687 75.0 1 100.0 65,686 75.0
Widow(er) 12,506 14.3 12,506 14.3 . . . . . . 12,506 14.3
Spouse 5,677 6.5 5,677 6.5 . . . . . . 5,677 6.5
Disabled worker 3,693 4.2 3,693 4.2 . . . . . . 3,693 4.2
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 87,563 +1 87,619
Sex
Female 46,454 +1 46,486
Male 41,108 0 41,133
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 +1 16,096
White 54,725 0 54,762
Black 9,521 0 9,528
Other 7,231 0 7,233
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 0 67,700
Foreign 19,898 +1 19,919
Age
60-69 25,830 +1 25,862
70-79 32,047 0 32,062
80-89 21,891 0 21,900
90+ 7,795 0 0 7,795
Marital Status
Married 44,755 +1 44,774
Divorced 16,656 0 16,668
Widowed 15,365 0 15,373
Never Married 10,786 0 10,804
Education
Graduate 11,012 0 11,029
Bachelor 20,209 0 20,216
Associate 19,742 0 19,753
High School 28,574 +1 28,592
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 0 8,029
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 +1 84,533
In poverty 3,064 0 3,086
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 0 17,515
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 +1 17,527
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 0 17,526
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 0 17,515
$0-$33,157 17,513 0 17,537
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 +1 0 65,686
Widow(er) 12,506 0 0 12,506
Spouse 5,677 0 0 5,677
Disabled worker 3,693 0 0 3,693
None 0 0 57
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2050: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Payable (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 87,563 +1 87,619
Sex
Female 46,454 +1 46,486
Male 41,108 0 41,133
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 16,087 +1 16,096
White 54,725 0 54,762
Black 9,521 0 9,528
Other 7,231 0 7,233
Country of Birth
U.S. 67,665 0 67,700
Foreign 19,898 +1 19,919
Age
60-69 25,830 +1 25,862
70-79 32,047 0 32,062
80-89 21,891 0 21,900
90+ 7,795 0 0 7,795
Marital Status
Married 44,755 +1 44,774
Divorced 16,656 0 16,668
Widowed 15,365 0 15,373
Never Married 10,786 0 10,804
Education
Graduate 11,012 0 11,029
Bachelor 20,209 0 20,216
Associate 19,742 0 19,753
High School 28,574 +1 28,592
Less than 12 Yrs 8,026 0 8,029
Official Poverty
Above poverty 84,498 +1 84,533
In poverty 3,064 0 3,086
Household Income Quintile
$200,444+ 17,512 0 17,515
$103,985 - $200,444 17,512 +1 17,527
$60,527 - $103,985 17,514 0 17,526
$33,157 - $60,527 17,511 0 17,515
$0-$33,157 17,513 0 17,537
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 65,687 +1 0 65,686
Widow(er) 12,506 0 0 12,506
Spouse 5,677 0 0 5,677
Disabled worker 3,693 0 0 3,693
None 0 0 57
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.