CATEGORY: COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Reduce the cost of living adjustment: Base it on the Chained CPI

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Chained-CPI COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -3% 91% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Sex
Female -3% 92% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Male -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic -2% 85% 0% -3% 100% 0%
White -3% 92% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Black -3% 89% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Other -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. -3% 91% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Foreign -2% 87% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Age
60-69 -1% 73% 0% -1% 100% 0%
70-79 -3% 100% 0% -3% 100% 0%
80-89 -4% 100% 0% -4% 100% 0%
90+ -4% 100% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Marital Status
Married -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Divorced -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Widowed -4% 96% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Never Married -2% 88% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Education
Graduate -4% 94% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Bachelor -3% 92% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Associate -3% 89% 0% -3% 100% 0%
High School -3% 91% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -3% 89% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty -3% 91% 0% -3% 100% 0%
In poverty -3% 87% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ -3% 91% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 -3% 91% 0% -4% 100% 0%
$0-$30,478 -4% 91% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker -3% 90% 0% -3% 100% 0%
Widow(er) -4% 95% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Spouse -3% 95% 0% -4% 100% 0%
Disabled worker -2% 76% 0% -2% 100% 0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Chained-CPI COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total -1% 51% 0% -1% 56% 0%
Sex
Female -1% 55% 0% -1% 59% 0%
Male 0% 46% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 46% 0% -1% 54% 0%
White -1% 51% 0% -1% 55% 0%
Black -1% 55% 0% -1% 61% 0%
Other 0% 46% 0% -1% 51% 0%
Country of Birth
U.S. -1% 52% 0% -1% 56% 0%
Foreign 0% 44% 0% -1% 50% 0%
Age
60-69 0% 27% 0% 0% 36% 0%
70-79 -1% 61% 0% -1% 61% 0%
80-89 -1% 68% 0% -1% 68% 0%
90+ -1% 58% 0% -1% 58% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 47% 0% -1% 52% 0%
Divorced -1% 55% 0% -1% 61% 0%
Widowed -1% 60% 0% -1% 63% 0%
Never Married 0% 48% 0% -1% 54% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 38% 0% 0% 41% 0%
Bachelor 0% 43% 0% 0% 46% 0%
Associate -1% 51% 0% -1% 57% 0%
High School -1% 58% 0% -1% 63% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -1% 55% 0% -1% 61% 0%
Official Poverty
Above poverty -1% 50% 0% -1% 55% 0%
In poverty -2% 67% 1% -2% 77% 1%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 4% 0% 0% 5% 0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 33% 0% 0% 37% 0%
$57,224 - $97,521 -1% 56% 0% -1% 62% 0%
$30,478 - $57,224 -1% 76% 0% -2% 83% 0%
$0-$30,478 -2% 84% 0% -3% 92% 0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 47% 0% -1% 52% 0%
Widow(er) -1% 67% 0% -1% 71% 0%
Spouse -1% 54% 0% -1% 56% 0%
Disabled worker 0% 37% 0% 0% 47% 0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Chained-CPI COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 5.3%
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.8%
Male 4.3% 4.7%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 9.4%
White 3.5% 3.9%
Black 9.0% 9.5%
Other 7.7% 8.3%
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.6%
Foreign 8.8% 9.4%
Age
60-69 5.7% 6.0%
70-79 4.9% 5.5%
80-89 3.8% 4.3%
90+ 2.5% 3.2%
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 2.0%
Divorced 8.3% 9.1%
Widowed 5.8% 6.4%
Never Married 17.0% 18.1%
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Bachelor 2.2% 2.4%
Associate 3.6% 4.0%
High School 6.1% 6.7%
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 14.8%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.5%
In poverty 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.9%
$0-$30,478 23.0% 25.0%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.9%
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.6%
Spouse 5.5% 5.8%
Disabled worker 8.5% 9.0%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Chained-CPI COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 66,966 100.0 66,961 100.0 5 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 36,602 54.7 36,597 54.7 5 100.0
Male 33,817 45.8 30,364 45.3 30,364 45.3 . . . . . .
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 6,661 9.9 6,661 9.9 . . . . . .
White 54,004 73.2 49,626 74.1 49,621 74.1 5 100.0
Black 7,559 10.2 6,747 10.1 6,747 10.1 . . . . . .
Other 4,382 5.9 3,932 5.9 3,932 5.9 . . . . . .
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 56,997 85.1 56,991 85.1 5 100.0
Foreign 11,438 15.5 9,969 14.9 9,969 14.9 . . . . . .
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 17,773 26.5 17,768 26.5 5 100.0
70-79 31,533 42.7 31,430 46.9 31,430 46.9 . . . . . .
80-89 14,979 20.3 14,970 22.4 14,970 22.4 . . . . . .
90+ 2,793 3.8 2,793 4.2 2,793 4.2 . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 37,481 56.0 37,477 56.0 4 71.2
Divorced 13,632 18.5 12,329 18.4 12,328 18.4 2 28.8
Widowed 12,828 17.4 12,263 18.3 12,263 18.3 . . . . . .
Never Married 5,566 7.5 4,893 7.3 4,893 7.3 . . . . . .
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 8,105 12.1 8,105 12.1 . . . . . .
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 12,784 19.1 12,782 19.1 2 28.8
Associate 16,752 22.7 14,918 22.3 14,918 22.3 . . . . . .
High School 28,256 38.3 25,614 38.2 25,610 38.2 4 71.2
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 5,546 8.3 5,546 8.3 . . . . . .
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 63,829 95.3 63,823 95.3 5 100.0
In poverty 3,604 4.9 3,137 4.7 3,137 4.7 . . . . . .
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 13,421 20.0 13,421 20.0 . . . . . .
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 13,317 19.9 13,312 19.9 5 100.0
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 13,322 19.9 13,322 19.9 . . . . . .
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 13,446 20.1 13,446 20.1 . . . . . .
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 13,460 20.1 13,460 20.1 . . . . . .
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 46,717 69.8 46,717 69.8 . . . . . .
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 11,535 17.2 11,533 17.2 2 28.8
Spouse 6,571 8.9 6,267 9.4 6,264 9.4 4 71.2
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 2,446 3.7 2,446 3.7 . . . . . .
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Chained-CPI COLA vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 -18 -18 73,792
Sex
Female 39,993 -11 -11 39,982
Male 33,817 -7 -7 33,810
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 0 0 7,865
White 54,004 -13 -13 53,990
Black 7,559 -5 -4 7,554
Other 4,382 0 0 4,382
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 -17 -17 62,355
Foreign 11,438 -1 -1 11,437
Age
60-69 24,505 -8 -7 24,497
70-79 31,533 -6 -6 31,527
80-89 14,979 -4 -3 14,975
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 -5 -5 41,779
Divorced 13,632 -10 -10 13,622
Widowed 12,828 -2 -2 12,825
Never Married 5,566 0 0 5,566
Education
Graduate 8,636 -6 -5 8,630
Bachelor 13,936 -7 -7 13,929
Associate 16,752 -3 -2 16,749
High School 28,256 -2 -1 28,254
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 0 6,230
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 -18 -18 70,187
In poverty 3,604 0 0 3,604
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 -10 -10 14,752
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 -4 -3 14,758
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 -1 -1 14,762
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 0 0 14,759
$0-$30,478 14,763 -3 -2 14,760
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 -8 -7 51,861
Widow(er) 12,154 -6 -6 12,148
Spouse 6,571 -4 -3 6,567
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.