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Projections—Policy Options
Benefit Formula Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records: Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age six: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Price index the PIA formula: Reduce the formula factors by the difference in growth rates of wages and prices: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Price index the PIA formula: Protect the bottom 30% of workers from price indexing: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reconfigure the minimum benefit: For workers with 10 to 30 years of coverage (YOC = 4 quarters earned that year) set PIA up to 125% of the monthly poverty level: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors: To 90%, 21%, and 10% over a 31-year period: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors: To 69.2%, 24.6%, and 11.5% over a 28-year period: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reduce initial benefits: By 5%: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Cost of Living Adjustment Changes
Covered Worker Changes
Retirement Age Increases
Taxation Changes
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Benefit Formula Changes

Price index the PIA formula: Reduce the formula factors by the difference in growth rates of wages and prices

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Compare all options »

Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: Price Indexing versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -1% 53% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 49% 0%
Male -3% 56% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic -6% 63% 0%
White -1% 50% 0%
Black -3% 56% 0%
Other -3% 57% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant -5% 62% 0%
Native Born -1% 51% 0%
Age
60–69 -10% 90% 0%
70–79 0% 48% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married -5% 61% 0%
Married -5% 63% 0%
Divorced -1% 53% 0%
Widowed 0% 21% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 46% 0%
Bachelor -3% 55% 0%
Associate -1% 54% 0%
High School -1% 52% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -3% 56% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0% 48% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 -1% 54% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 -2% 55% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 -1% 54% 0%
$0-$19,359 -1% 52% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ -3% 55% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 -3% 57% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 -1% 54% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 -1% 52% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 45% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ -1% 50% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 -1% 52% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 -1% 52% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 -3% 56% 0%
$0-$29,733 -1% 52% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker -5% 61% 0%
Spousal & Worker -3% 58% 0%
Spousal Only 0% 50% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 21% 0%
Survivor Only 0% 18% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 34% 0%
Disabled Worker -9% 72% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger -1% 52% 0%
63–66 -3% 55% 0%
67 or older 0% 38% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ -1% 53% 0%
161–200 -3% 59% 0%
81–160 -1% 53% 0%
0–80 0% 35% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ -1% 51% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 -3% 55% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 -3% 56% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 -3% 55% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 45% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 46% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 45% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 -1% 54% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 -4% 59% 0%
$0-$2,836 -4% 59% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ -3% 61% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 -2% 56% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 50% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 47% 0%
$0-$1,193 0% 50% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ -3% 59% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 -3% 56% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 -1% 52% 0%
$1 - $52,849 -1% 53% 0%
$0.00 0% 46% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: Price Indexing versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 2% 18% 32% 47% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 17% 31% 51% 0% 0% 0%
Male 2% 20% 34% 44% 0% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 1% 27% 35% 37% 0% 0% 0%
White 2% 17% 32% 50% 0% 0% 0%
Black 1% 21% 34% 44% 0% 0% 0%
Other 3% 21% 33% 43% 0% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 2% 24% 36% 38% 0% 0% 0%
Native Born 2% 17% 32% 49% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 5% 51% 35% 10% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 1% 48% 52% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 2% 22% 37% 39% 0% 0% 0%
Married 2% 23% 38% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 19% 32% 46% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 5% 15% 79% 0% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 2% 15% 29% 54% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 2% 19% 34% 45% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 2% 19% 33% 46% 0% 0% 0%
High School 1% 18% 32% 48% 0% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 1% 23% 33% 44% 0% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 3% 14% 31% 52% 0% 0% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 3% 18% 33% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 2% 19% 34% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 20% 34% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$19,359 0% 20% 31% 48% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 3% 19% 33% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 2% 19% 35% 43% 0% 0% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 2% 17% 35% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 1% 19% 32% 48% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 18% 27% 55% 0% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 2% 15% 33% 50% 0% 0% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 2% 17% 33% 48% 0% 0% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 2% 18% 33% 48% 0% 0% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 1% 21% 33% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,733 1% 21% 30% 48% 0% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2% 21% 37% 39% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 1% 18% 40% 42% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal Only 1% 12% 37% 50% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 4% 16% 79% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 1% 7% 11% 82% 0% 0% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 2% 32% 66% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 50% 22% 28% 0% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 1% 22% 29% 48% 0% 0% 0%
63–66 3% 16% 36% 45% 0% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 3% 35% 62% 0% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 4% 12% 37% 47% 0% 0% 0%
161–200 2% 22% 35% 41% 0% 0% 0%
81–160 1% 21% 31% 47% 0% 0% 0%
0–80 0% 12% 23% 65% 0% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 3% 15% 34% 49% 0% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 2% 19% 34% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 2% 20% 34% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 1% 22% 32% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,780 1% 16% 28% 55% 0% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 2% 12% 31% 54% 0% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 2% 14% 29% 55% 0% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 2% 18% 34% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 2% 23% 35% 40% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$2,836 1% 25% 33% 41% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 1% 16% 45% 39% 0% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 1% 18% 36% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 1% 18% 30% 50% 0% 0% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 1% 19% 27% 53% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,193 4% 21% 25% 50% 0% 0% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 4% 19% 36% 41% 0% 0% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 2% 17% 37% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 2% 17% 33% 48% 0% 0% 0%
$1 - $52,849 2% 20% 32% 47% 0% 0% 0%
$0.00 0% 18% 28% 54% 0% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: Price Indexing versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 3.4% 0.3% 192,018
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.8% 0.3% 98,733
Male 2.7% 2.9% 0.3% 93,285
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 6.4% 0.6% 42,050
White 1.9% 2.1% 0.2% 86,229
Black 8.2% 8.7% 0.5% 41,198
Other 4.7% 5.2% 0.6% 22,540
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 5.9% 0.5% 57,203
Native Born 2.7% 3.0% 0.2% 134,815
Age
60–69 4.2% 4.8% 0.6% 140,753
70–79 2.9% 3.1% 0.2% 51,265
80–89 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0
90+ 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Never Married 11.6% 12.4% 0.8% 37,942
Married 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% 68,397
Divorced 5.4% 5.9% 0.5% 65,029
Widowed 3.2% 3.3% 0.1% 20,649
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 24,236
Associate 2.5% 2.6% 0.2% 32,035
High School 4.3% 4.6% 0.3% 83,819
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 11.0% 1.2% 51,927
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2,415
$0-$19,359 15.8% 17.1% 1.3% 189,603
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$29,648 15.8% 17.2% 1.3% 192,018
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2,415
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2,393
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 23,214
$0-$29,733 15.3% 16.4% 1.1% 163,995
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.9% 0.3% 131,469
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 3,487
Spousal Only 7.3% 7.6% 0.3% 3,580
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 13,683
Survivor Only 9.0% 9.0% 0.1% 893
Retired Disabled 6.0% 6.1% 0.1% 7,106
Disabled Worker 7.0% 7.7% 0.7% 31,796
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 5.2% 0.4% 151,893
63–66 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 32,851
67 or older 1.7% 1.9% 0.2% 7,274
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 950
161–200 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 9,145
81–160 3.0% 3.6% 0.6% 144,155
0–80 14.0% 14.4% 0.4% 37,766
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5,269
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 3.4% 0.6% 80,892
$0-$1,780 12.9% 13.6% 0.7% 105,856
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1,160
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 20,712
$0-$2,836 15.1% 16.3% 1.2% 170,145
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2,415
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 18,876
$0-$1,193 15.7% 16.9% 1.2% 170,726
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 8,765
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 14,896
$0.00 9.7% 10.5% 0.8% 168,356
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal
(2030 $)
Total $1,103 $1,420 $2,241
Sex
Female $993 $1,278 $2,017
Male $1,232 $1,585 $2,502
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $882 $1,136 $1,793
White $1,166 $1,501 $2,368
Black $963 $1,239 $1,956
Other $981 $1,262 $1,992
Immigration
Immigrant $879 $1,132 $1,786
Native Born $1,141 $1,469 $2,318
Age
60–69 $1,007 $1,296 $2,046
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $970 $1,248 $1,970
Married $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
Divorced $1,098 $1,414 $2,231
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,444 $1,858 $2,932
Bachelor $1,286 $1,656 $2,613
Associate $1,100 $1,416 $2,234
High School $1,013 $1,304 $2,058
Less than 12 Yrs $791 $1,018 $1,607
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,477 $1,902 $3,001
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,322 $1,701 $2,685
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,176 $1,514 $2,389
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,064 $1,370 $2,162
$0-$19,359 $695 $894 $1,411
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,383 $1,780 $2,809
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,259 $1,621 $2,558
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,172 $1,508 $2,380
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,152
$0-$29,648 $808 $1,040 $1,641
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,598 $2,057 $3,246
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,332 $1,714 $2,705
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,145 $1,474 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $952 $1,226 $1,934
$0-$29,733 $664 $855 $1,349
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,133 $1,459 $2,302
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $969 $1,247 $1,968
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,070
161–200 $1,241 $1,597 $2,520
81–160 $925 $1,191 $1,879
0–80 $651 $838 $1,322
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,320 $1,700 $2,682
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,026 $1,320 $2,084
$1,780 - $3,235 $803 $1,033 $1,630
$0-$1,780 $615 $792 $1,249
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,392 $1,792 $2,828
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,179 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $608 $783 $1,236
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,199
$0-$1,193 $668 $860 $1,357
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,400 $1,802 $2,844
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,246 $1,604 $2,531
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,174 $1,511 $2,384
$1 - $52,849 $1,004 $1,292 $2,039
$0.00 $926 $1,192 $1,881
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.