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  3. Why Will Poverty Decline
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Chart Descriptions - Why Will Poverty Decline for Social Security Beneficiaries Aged 60 and Older?

Released: March 2015
Next expected update: 2018
Poverty Rate for Beneficiaries Aged 60 and Older, 2015–2080 (percent)
Year Scheduled benefits Payable benefits
2015 5.8 5.8
2016 5.8 5.8
2017 5.7 5.7
2018 5.6 5.6
2019 5.8 5.8
2020 5.7 5.7
2021 5.6 5.6
2022 5.6 5.6
2023 5.6 5.6
2024 5.6 5.6
2025 5.4 5.4
2026 5.2 5.2
2027 5.2 5.2
2028 5.1 5.1
2029 5.2 5.2
2030 4.9 4.9
2031 4.8 4.8
2032 4.8 4.8
2033 4.7 9.0
2034 4.6 9.0
2035 4.4 8.8
2036 4.2 8.6
2037 4.2 8.5
2038 4.1 8.4
2039 4.0 8.2
2040 4.2 8.3
2041 4.1 8.1
2042 4.1 8.1
2043 4.0 7.9
2044 3.8 7.9
2045 3.8 7.8
2046 3.8 7.6
2047 3.6 7.5
2048 3.5 7.3
2049 3.5 7.1
2050 3.5 7.0
2051 3.4 6.9
2052 3.4 6.8
2053 3.3 6.6
2054 3.2 6.6
2055 3.0 6.3
2056 2.8 6.1
2057 2.9 6.1
2058 2.8 6.0
2059 2.7 5.9
2060 2.6 5.8
2061 2.5 5.5
2062 2.4 5.3
2063 2.4 5.4
2064 2.3 5.3
2065 2.2 5.1
2066 2.2 5.1
2067 2.2 5.0
2068 2.2 4.9
2069 2.1 4.8
2070 2.1 4.7
2071 2.1 4.7
2072 2.0 4.4
2073 1.9 4.4
2074 1.9 4.3
2075 1.9 4.2
2076 1.8 4.1
2077 1.7 4.0
2078 1.7 3.8
2079 1.7 3.7
2080 1.6 3.7
SOURCES: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 7 (MINT7) microsimulation model using 2012 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions. The 2012 Trustees Report projects tax rates will be sufficient to pay 75 percent of scheduled benefits after trust fund exhaustion in 2033, often referred to as payable benefits.
Projected Average Wage and Price Growth, 2015–2025 (in thousands of dollars)
Year Projected price growth Projected average wage growth
2015 50.9 50.9
2016 53.3 51.9
2017 56.0 53.4
2018 58.7 54.5
2019 61.2 56.0
2020 63.7 58.0
2021 66.2 59.5
2022 68.7 61.1
2023 71.3 62.6
2024 74.0 64.6
2025 76.8 66.2
SOURCE: Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2012 Trustees Report.
Projected Growth of Poverty-Level Income and the Poverty Threshold, 2015–2025 (in thousands of dollars)
Year Projected poverty threshold Wage-indexed 2015 aged poverty-level income
2015 11.7 11.7
2016 12.0 12.3
2017 12.3 12.8
2018 12.6 13.5
2019 13.0 14.1
2020 13.3 14.8
2021 13.7 15.4
2022 14.1 16.1
2023 14.5 16.7
2024 14.9 17.3
2025 15.3 18.0
SOURCE: Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2012 Trustees Report.