Research and Analysis by Date

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 67 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Trends in Mortality Differentials and Life Expectancy for Male Social Security-Covered Workers, by Socioeconomic Status
• Benefit Adequacy Among Elderly Social Security Retired-Worker Beneficiaries and the SSI Federal Benefit Rate
• Effective Retirement Savings Programs: Design Features and Financial Education
• Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustments and the Consumer Price Index
• The Evolution of Japanese Employer-Sponsored Retirement Plans

International Update, April 2008

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Efforts Since 2000 to Simplify the SSI Program: Legislative and Regulatory Changes

Supplemental Security Income SSI is a federally administered, means-tested program that provides monthly payments to blind, disabled, or aged persons. This policy brief summarizes efforts since 2000 to simplify the SSI program through policy changes affecting the reporting of income and resources. The Social Security Protection Act (SSPA) of 2004 has provisions that simplify the treatment of infrequent and irregular income, interest and dividend income, income earned by a student, one-time income in an initial month of eligibility, military pay, and exclusion of certain income from countable resources. Final regulations published in 2005 contain simplifications in the definition of income to exclude clothing, household goods and personal effects, and automobiles from countable resources. This brief explains those changes and describes other options that have been considered.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: The Americas, 2007

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 36 countries in the Americas. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and Africa. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, March 2008

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, February 2008

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 67 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Have People Delayed Claiming Retirement Benefits? Responses to Changes in Social Security Rules
• The Never-Married in Old Age: Projections and Concerns for the Near Future
• The Impact of the Unit of Observation on the Measurement of the Relative Importance of Social Security Benefits to the Elderly
• Estimates of Unreported Asset Income in the Survey of Consumer Finances and the Relative Importance of Social Security Benefits to the Elderly
• The Impact of Survey Choice on Measuring the Relative Importance of Social Security Benefits to the Elderly
• Measuring the Relative Importance of Social Security Benefits to the Elderly
• Hispanics, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income
• How Post Secondary Education Improves Adult Outcomes for Supplemental Security Income Children with Severe Hearing Impairments

State Assistance Programs for SSI Recipients, January 2007

This annual publication presents data on selected characteristics of mandatory and optional state assistance programs for SSI recipients. It focuses on eligibility provisions and the maximum levels of assistance for individuals and couples who receive supplementary payments.

Characteristics of Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries Receiving Workers' Compensation or Public Disability Benefits Compared With Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries Without These Additional Benefits

Characteristics of Noninstitutionalized DI and SSI Program Participants

International Update, January 2008

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, December 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Cohort-Specific Measures of Lifetime Social Security Taxes and Benefits

International Update, November 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Trends in Mortality Differentials and Life Expectancy for Male Social Security–Covered Workers, by Average Relative Earnings

This study presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security–covered workers aged 60 or older. Mortality differentials, cohort life expectancies, and period life expectancies by average relative earnings are estimated. Period life expectancy estimates for the United States are also compared with those of other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912–1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972–2001 at ages 60–89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. The sample is expected to be selectively healthier than the general population because of a requirement that men included in the sample have some positive earnings from ages 45 through 55. This requirement is expected to exclude some of the most at-risk members of the U.S. population because of the strong correlation between labor force participation and health.

Considerations for Potential Proposals to Change the Earliest Eligibility Age for Retirement

The earliest eligibility age (EEA) interacts with many other Social Security program rules, including the benefit formula and insured status requirements. Proposals to increase the EEA could affect some or all of these other rules depending on how policymakers design the proposal. By using a hypothetical proposal that increases the EEA, this policy brief illustrates how these interations work and discusses the options that policymakers would need to consider.

International Update, October 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Portfolio Theory, Life-Cycle Investing, and Retirement Income

There has been much discussion recently about life-cycle funds and their role in providing a secure retirement income for older Americans. These funds, which gradually shift account assets from broad-based stock funds to bond funds as a participant ages, are becoming an important vehicle for retirement savings. This policy brief explores the economic rationale behind the life-cycle approach and the advantages and limitations of life-cycle funds.

Social Security as a Retirement Resource for Near-Retirees, by Race and Ethnicity, Nativity, Benefit Type, and Disability Status

This paper analyzes Social Security benefits as a retirement resource for selected subgroups of current and recent cohorts of near-retirees. The paper examines the distribution of benefits among (1) several race-ethnic subgroups, (2) the native-born and the foreign-born, (3) worker, spouse, and survivor beneficiaries, and (4) the disabled and the nondisabled. We use improved data (actual earnings history data) to produce more accurate measures of benefits. We look at how the average values of several benefit measures such as Social Security wealth and earnings replacement rates differ among the selected subgroups and discuss reasons for these differences. We find that substantial differences in earnings levels and/or mortality levels among these subgroups interact with Social Security program provisions to produce sizable differences in the values of our benefit measures.

International Update, September 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Africa, 2007

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 44 countries in Africa. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, August 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 67 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• How Have People Responded to Changes in the Retirement Earnings Test in 2000?
• Recent Trends in Workers' Compensation
• Summary and Overview of the 2007 Trustees Report
• Expenditures of the Aged
• Homeless People Whose Self-Reported SSI/DI Status Is Inconsistent with Social Security Administration Records

International Update, July 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, June 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, May 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Projections of Economic Well-Being for Social Security Beneficiaries in 2022 and 2062
• The TANF/SSI Connection
• Coping with the Demographic Challenge: Fewer Children and Living Longer

International Update, April 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, March 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Asia and the Pacific, 2006

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 48 countries in Asia and the Pacific. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, February 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, January 2007

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, December 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, November 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, October 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Europe, 2006

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 44 countries in Europe. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Asia and the Pacific, Africa, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

State Assistance Programs for SSI Recipients, January 2006

This annual publication presents data on selected characteristics of mandatory and optional state assistance programs for SSI recipients. It focuses on eligibility provisions and the maximum levels of assistance for individuals and couples who receive supplementary payments.

International Update, September 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Message from the Commissioner
• Social Security Disability Insurance, 1956–2006: Statement by the Social Security Advisory Board
• Social Security and the "D" in OASDI: The History of a Federal Program Insuring Earners Against Disability
• Addressing the Challenges Facing SSA's Disability Programs
• The Social Security Administration's Disability Service Improvement Process
• The Financial Outlook for the Social Security Disability Insurance Program
• A Primer: Social Security Act Programs to Assist the Disabled
• Selected Bibliography of the Social Security Administration's Research on Disability Issues

International Update, August 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, July 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, June 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

New Evidence on Earnings and Benefit Claims Following Changes in the Retirement Earnings Test in 2000

In April 2000, Congress enacted the Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act of 2000, which removed the retirement earnings test for individuals at the full retirement age and older. This paper examines the labor force activity of workers aged 65–69 relative to older and younger workers in response to the removal of the earnings test. We use the 1 percent sample of Social Security administrative data that covers the period from 4 years before to 4 years following the removal of the test. Quantile regression methods allow us to identify the earnings levels of workers who change their work effort.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Military Veterans and Social Security
• An Overview of the National Survey of SSI Children and Families and Related Products
• A Profile of Children with Disabilities Receiving SSI: Highlights from the National Survey of SSI Children and Families
• Participation in Programs Designed to Improve Employment Outcomes for Persons with Psychiatric Disabilities: Evidence from the New York WORKS Demonstration Project

International Update, May 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, April 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Defined Contribution Pension Plans and the Supplemental Security Income Program

This policy brief analyzes changes in the employer-sponsored pension system and the relationship of these changes to the Supplemental Security Income program's treatment of retirement plans. SSI does not treat assets in defined benefit and defined contribution retirement plans in the same manner. The primary difference is that a potential SSI recipient has access to the funds in a defined contribution plan, but a participant in the defined benefit plan has no access to the pension until attaining a specific age. The increasing prevalence of the defined contribution retirement plan and the decreasing prevalence of the defined benefit plan is one significant change—a trend that has gained momentum since the mid-1980s. The importance of these issues relates to the extent of pension plan holdings among SSI applicants and recipients, which is in turn directly related to their involvement in the labor force. The policy brief discusses three alternate approaches to SSI treatment of defined contribution retirement plans, one of which is to retain the current policy.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: The Americas, 2005

These reports, which provide a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in more than 170 countries, summarize the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. They are published in four regional volumes (Europe, Asia and the Pacific, Africa, and the Americas), one every 6 months. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, March 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, February 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, January 2006

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, December 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, November 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, October 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• Social Security: A Program and Policy History
• Literature Review of Long-Term Mortality Projections
• Individual Accounts in Other Countries
• Lifetime Earnings, Social Security Benefits, and the Adequacy of Retirement Wealth Accumulation
• Medicare Gaps and Widow Poverty

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Africa, 2005

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 44 countries in Africa. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, September 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

State Assistance Programs for SSI Recipients, January 2005

This annual publication presents data on selected characteristics of mandatory and optional state assistance programs for SSI recipients. It focuses on eligibility provisions and the maximum levels of assistance for individuals and couples who receive supplementary payments.

International Update, August 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, July 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

The Distributional Consequences of a "No-Action" Scenario: Updated Results

Under the Social Security program, benefits are paid to retired workers, survivors, and disabled persons out of two trust funds—the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and the Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2005 report, the Social Security Trustees projected that the combined OASDI trust funds would be exhausted in 2041. Because the trust funds are used to pay benefits, retirement benefits would have to be reduced somewhat in 2041 and more drastically in 2042.

If no action were taken to strengthen Social Security, the benefit reductions necessitated by the exhaustion of the trust funds would double the poverty rate of Social Security beneficiaries aged 64–78 in 2042, from 1.5 percent to 3.3 percent. However, this increased poverty rate would still be lower than the current poverty rate for beneficiaries aged 62–76, which is 4.6 percent. In addition, the trust funds' exhaustion could lead to lower returns on payroll taxes using traditional "money's-worth" measures.

International Update, June 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 65 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Reassessing the Relationship Between Disability Insurance and Workers' Compensation
• Workers' Compensation, Social Security Disability Insurance, and the Offset: A Fact Sheet
• Workers' Compensation: A Background for Social Security Professionals
• Compensating Workers for Permanent Partial Disabilities
• Benefit Adequacy in State Workers' Compensation Programs
• The Fraction of Disability Caused at Work
• Design and Implementation Issues in Swedish Individual Pension Accounts
• Introduction and Overview from—2005 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal OASDI Trust Funds

International Update, May 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security as a Retirement Resource for Near-Retirees

This paper analyzes Social Security benefits as a retirement resource for near-retirees. It looks at how the average values of several measures of benefits such as Social Security wealth and earnings replacement rates have changed from earlier cohorts to today's near-retiree cohort, examines differences among demographic and socioeconomic groups within cohorts, and discusses reasons for these changes and differences. The paper uses greatly improved data (actual earnings histories) to produce more accurate measures of benefits; it also uses some new benefit measures. Key findings include the following: (1) average real Social Security wealth increases markedly for successive age cohorts, primarily because of increases in average real earnings; (2) replacement rates fall for recent cohorts, primarily because of the phase-in of increases in the age of eligibility for full benefits; and (3) median Social Security wealth is much higher for women than for men because women live longer.

International Update, April 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

State Assistance Programs for SSI Recipients, January 2004

This annual publication presents data on selected characteristics of mandatory and optional state assistance programs for SSI recipients. It focuses on eligibility provisions and the maximum levels of assistance for individuals and couples who receive supplementary payments.

Poverty-level Annuitization Requirements in Social Security Proposals Incorporating Personal Retirement Accounts

In the current discussions of Social Security reform, voluntary personal retirement accounts have been proposed. Recent research and debate have focused on several aspects of these accounts, including how such accounts would affect aggregate saving, system finances, and benefit levels. Little attention, however, has been paid to policies that would govern the distribution of account balances. This analysis considers such policies with respect to the annuitization of account balances at retirement using the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the New Term (MINT) model and a modified version of a recent legislative proposal to evaluate the effects of partial annuitization requirements.

International Update, March 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Asia and the Pacific, 2004

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 48 countries in Asia and the Pacific. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, February 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 65 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• The Changing Impact of Social Security on Retirement Income in the United States
• Disability, Welfare Reform, and Supplemental Security Income
• The Economic Consequences of a Husband's Death: Evidence from the HRS and AHEAD
• The Effect of the SSI Program on Labor Supply: Improved Evidence from Social Security Administrative Files

International Update, January 2005

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, December 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, November 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, October 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, September 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Europe, 2004

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 44 countries in Europe. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Asia and the Pacific, Africa, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, August 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 65 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Changes in the Demographic and Economic Characteristics of SSI and DI Beneficiaries Between 1984 and 1999
• SSI Recipients in Households and Families with Multiple Recipients: Prevalence and Poverty Outcomes
• Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Children in Families Receiving Social Security
• Annual Wage Trends for Supplemental Security Income Recipients
• Choice and Other Determinants of Employee Contributions to Defined Contribution Plans
• Introduction and Overview from—2004 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal OASDI Trust Funds
• Executive Summary from—Technical Panel on Assummptions and Methods (2003); Report to the Social Security Advisory Board
• Use of Social Security Administration Data for Research Purposes
• The RAND HRS Data File: A User-Friendly Version of the Health and Retirement Study

State Assistance Programs for SSI Recipients, January 2002

This annual publication presents data on selected characteristics of mandatory and optional state assistance programs for SSI recipients. It focuses on eligibility provisions and the maximum levels of assistance for individuals and couples who receive supplementary payments.

International Update, July 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 57 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• The Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Social Welfare Strategies
• Pension Coverage Among the Baby Boomers: Initial Findings From a 1993 Survey
• Disability Trends in the United States: A National and Regional Perspective
• Work Efforts of Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries: Preliminary Findings From the New Beneficiary Followup Survey

International Update, June 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

How Many SSI Recipients Live with Other Recipients?

The Office of Policy recently completed an analysis of the prevalence of multirecipient households in the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. The study was based on Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data for December 1998 matched to administrative records from the Social Security Administration (SSA).

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 65 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• Evaluating the Initial Impact of Eliminating the Retirement Earnings Test
• Comparing Replacement Rates Under Private and Federal Retirement Systems
• Stochastic Models of the Social Security Trust Funds
• Lifetime Distributional Effects of Social Security Retirement Benefits
• Executive Summary from—Survey Estimates of Wealth: A Comparative Analysis and Review of the Survey of Income and Program Participation
• Outcome Indicators

Heterogeneity in Health and Mortality Risk Among Early Retiree Men

International Update, May 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, April 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Using Predisability Earnings as an Instrument for Disability Determination Outcomes

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: The Americas, 2003

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 36 countries in the Americas. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and Africa. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

International Update, March 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Young Widow(er)s, Social Security, and Marriage

The Distributional Consequences of a "No-Action" Scenario

The 2001 report of the Social Security trustees projected that the combined trust funds for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance programs will be exhausted in 2038. This analysis explains the effects of insolvency on future retirement benefits and poverty rates of beneficiaries if no action is taken to strengthen Social Security.

International Update, February 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Child Support Payments and the SSI Program

In determining the benefit amount for a child, the Supplemental Security Income program excludes one-third of child support payments from countable income. Legislation reauthorizing the 1996 welfare reform law contains provisions that would encourage states to allow children receiving Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) to keep more of the child support paid by an absent parent. These potential changes provide impetus to revisit the way the SSI program treats child support.

Historical Redistribution Under the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Programs

International Update, January 2004

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, December 2003

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Treatment of Married Couples in the SSI Program

The Supplemental Security Income program serves as an income source of last resort for elderly or disabled individuals. This analysis identifies how marital status affects benefit rates and the counting of income and resources in determining eligibility.

International Update, November 2003

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

International Update, October 2003

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Africa, 2003

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 44 countries in Africa. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Asia and the Pacific, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 64 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Racial and Ethnic Differences in Wealth and Asset Choices
• Social Security Reform in Central and Eastern Europe: Variations on a Latin American Theme
• Results of the Office of Policy's 2001 User Satisfaction Survey
• Does Retirement Education Teach People to Save Pension Distributions?
• Recent Changes to the Chilean System of Individual Accounts

Historical Redistribution Under the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Program

This study uses Social Security administrative data on past earnings and benefits by year, age, sex, and race to analyze historical redistribution under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance program across and within cohorts born through the year 1922. The results generally support the findings of closely related previous research, confirming that early cohorts have received large accumulated net transfers to date, that females, as a group, have experienced substantially higher accumulated benefit/tax ratios and internal rates of return than their male counterparts in these cohorts, and that the "Other Races" group fared better by these measures than the "White" race group in most of the cohorts considered. Differences by race in the accumulated benefit/tax ratios estimated in this analysis are sensitive to the choice of the interest rate series and cohort grouping, however, and differ sharply between males and females under some of the interest rate assumptions.

Stochastic Models of the Social Security Trust Funds

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Asia and the Pacific, 2002

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 50 countries in Asia and the Pacific. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 64 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• The Upper Part of the Earnings Distribution in the United States: How Has It Changed?
• Trends in the Economic Status of the Elderly, 1976–2000
• Income Growth and Future Poverty Rates of the Aged
• SSI Eligibility and Participation Among the Oldest Old: Evidence from the AHEAD
• What Determines 401(k) Participation and Contributions?
• Comparing Beneficiaries of the Medicare Savings Programs with Eligible Nonparticipants

Mortality Differentials by Race

In the 2001 report of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security, the commission states that blacks "on average have both lower incomes and shorter life expectancies than other Americans." This paper examines the extent to which the shorter life expectancies of blacks are explained by differences between their average socioeconomic status and that of other Americans.

Estimates in this paper for men aged 25 to 64 show that about half of the difference in risk of death between blacks and all other races was explained by education level—the measure of socioeconomic status employed. At ages 65 to 90, black men were not found to have a significantly higher risk of death than men of all other races.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 64 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Annual Statistical Supplement Updates for 2002
• Social Security's Special Minimum Benefit
• Modeling SSI Financial Eligibility and Simulating the Effect of Policy Options
• The Canada Pension Plan's Experience with Investing Its Portfolio in Equities
• Social Security: A Financial Appraisal for the Median Voter
• Retirement and Wealth
• Pension Sponsorship and Participation: Trends and Policy Issues

Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Europe, 2002

This report, which is part of a four-volume series, provides a cross-national comparison of the social security systems in 44 countries in Europe. It summarizes the five main social insurance programs in those countries: old-age, disability, and survivors; sickness and maternity; work injury; unemployment; and family allowances. The other regional volumes in the series focus on the social security systems of countries in Asia and the Pacific, Africa, and the Americas. Together, the reports provide important information for researchers and policymakers who are reviewing different ways of approaching social security challenges and adapting the systems to the evolving needs of individuals, households, and families.

Social Security Disability Programs: Assessing the Variation in Allowance Rates

Do Early Retirees Die Early? Evidence from Three Independent Data Sets

In a 2001 working paper, Links Between Early Retirement and Mortality (ORES Working Paper No. 93), the author used cross-sectional Current Population Survey (CPS) matched to longitudinal Social Security administration data and found that men who retire early die sooner than men who retire at age 65 or older. Estimates of relative mortality risk control for current age, year of birth, education, marital status in 1973, and race, and the sample is restricted to men who have lived to at least age 65.

This paper uses the 1982 New Beneficiary Survey and a 1 percent extract of the Social Security Administration's year 2000 Master Beneficiary Records to test whether the mortality differentials reported in the author's earlier work can be replicated in other independent data sets.

Social Security Benefit Reporting in the Survey of Income and Program Participation and in Social Security Administrative Records

The quality of Social Security benefit reporting in household surveys is important for policy research on the Social Security program and, more generally, for research on the economic well-being of the aged and disabled populations. This is particularly true for the aged among whom receipt of Social Security benefits is nearly universal and reliance on such benefits is considerable. This paper examines the consistency between Social Security benefit amounts for May 1990 as reported in the Survey of Income and Program Participation and given in the Social Security Administration's administrative records for the respondent.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Wealth Holdings and Portfolio Choices

There are large differences in wealth across racial and ethnic groups, much of which remain unexplained even after controlling for income and demographic factors. This paper studies the issue of whether differences in saving behavior and rates of return on assets are a possible source of the differences in wealth. It uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to examine the differences in various components of aggregate wealth (including nonhousing equity, housing equity, financial assets, and risky assets) and to inspect differences in portfolio choices by race and ethnicity.

Descriptive tabulations of components of aggregate wealth and portfolio choices shown here point to differences between white and minority households in their saving behavior and choice of assets. These findings suggest that some of the large differences in wealth across racial and ethnic groups that remain unexplained even after controlling for income and demographic factors, may be attributable to the smaller participation in financial markets by minority households.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 64 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• The Widow(er)'s Limit Provision of Social Security
• Improving Child Support Enforcement for Children Receiving SSI
• Legislative History of Title VIII of the Social Security Act
• The U.S. Study of Work Incapacity and Reintegration
• The Social Security Administration's Death Master File: The Completeness of Death Reporting at Older Ages
• How Policy Variables Influence the Timing of Applications for Social Security Disability Insurance
• Transitions from AFDC to SSI before Welfare Reform
• Argentina's Pensions System

Social Security Administration, Office of Policy: 2001 Customer Satisfaction Survey, Final Report

Follow-up of Former Drug Addict and Alcohol Beneficiaries ^*

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 63 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Early Retirees Under Social Security: Health Status and Economic Resources
• How Raising the Age of Eligibility for Social Security and Medicare Might Affect the Disability Insurance and Medicare Program
• Older Workers' Progression from Private Disability Benefits to Social Security Disability Benefits
• The Erosion of Retiree Health Benefits and Retirement Behavior: Implications for the Disability Insurance Program
• Variation of Employee Benefit Costs by Age
• Retirement Outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study
• Lifetime Earnings Patterns, the Distribution of Future Social Security Benefits, and the Impact of Pension Reform
• Public Pension Reform in Japan

Income Growth and Future Poverty Rates of the Aged

This paper estimates effects on elderly poverty rates of a steady growth in incomes for 50 years. It assumes that the poverty threshold continues to be adjusted for inflation but not for increases in real incomes. Simulations with the March 1998 Current Population Survey indicate that if Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefit rules are not changed and if earnings and other incomes grow by 1 percent per year (the growth rate in earnings assumed in the Social Security Trustees' Report intermediate scenario) in an otherwise unchanging population, poverty among the elderly will decrease from 10.5 percent to about 7.7 percent in 2020 and to 4.8 percent in 2047. Those projected poverty rates are quite sensitive to the earnings growth rate assumption and to the assumption that benefits are not further reduced to maintain solvency. The paper quantifies the sensitivity to these assumptions and discusses several other aspects that might affect future poverty rates—changes in other income components like SSI, earnings, and pensions; changes in longevity and marital patterns; and changes in the distribution of earnings.

Links Between Early Retirement and Mortality

In this paper I use the 1973 cross-sectional Current Population Survey (CPS) matched to longitudinal Social Security administrative data (through 1998) to examine the relationship between retirement age and mortality for men who have lived to at least age 65 by 1997 or earlier. Logistic regression results indicate that controlling for current age, year of birth, education, marital status in 1973, and race, men who retire early die sooner than men who retire at age 65 or older. A positive correlation between age of retirement and life expectancy may suggest that retirement age is correlated with health in the 1973 CPS; however, the 1973 CPS data do not provide the ability to test that hypothesis directly.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 63 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Divorced Women at Retirement: Projections of Economic Well-Being in the Near Future
• Eligibility for the Medicare Buy-in Programs, Based on a Survey of Income and Program Participation Simulation
• Medicare Premium Buy-in Programs: Results of SSA Demonstration Projects
• Earnings Histories of SSI Beneficiaries Working in December 1997
• A Benefit of One's Own: Older Women's Entitlement to Social Security Retirement

Methods in Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT I)

This paper summarizes the work completed by SSA, with substantial assistance from the Brookings Institution, RAND, and the Urban Institute, for the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT I) model. In most cases, several methods of estimating and projecting demographic characteristics and income were researched and tested; however, this appendix describes only those methods eventually used in the MINT I model.

The Widow(er)'s Limit Provision

The widow(er)'s limit provision of Social Security establishes caps on the benefit amounts of widow(er)s whose deceased spouse filed for early retirement benefits. Currently, 33 percent of Social Security's 8.1 million widow(er) beneficiaries have lower benefits because of that provision. This paper describes the widow(er)'s limit provision and evaluates proposed changes to it. The proposals considered range from the modest (allowing widow(er)s to receive adjustments to the capped amounts by delaying receipt of benefits) to the substantial (abolishing the widow(er)'s limit).

Military Veterans and Social Security

Military veterans constitute an important subgroup of Social Security beneficiaries. Because veterans are a large subgroup of Social Security beneficiaries and because policymakers have shown a clear interest in their well-being, it is important to understand how veterans and their dependents are currently faring. This note looks at the characteristics and trends in growth of the veteran and Social Security populations.

SSA's Estimates of Administrative Costs Under a Centralized Program of Individual Accounts

Over the past several years, a number of policymakers have proposed creating national individual accounts (IAs) for retirement whose assets would be individually owned and directed among investment options. Some proposals would create an IA program outside Social Security; others would integrate IAs into the Social Security program itself. All IA proposals, however, would entail administrative functions, costs, and considerations. Identifying and recognizing those administrative elements are important steps in assessing the desirability, feasibility, and optimal design of IAs.

This paper summarizes the administrative operation of Social Security today; provides SSA's estimated administrative costs for two hypothetical IA programs (that is, only the costs that SSA could experience, not those that employers, other agencies, and other parties could incur); and highlights major considerations raised by IA administrative costs and choices.

Widows Waiting to Wed? (Re)Marriage and Economic Incentives in Social Security Widow Benefits

In this paper we focus on an age restriction for remarriage in the Social Security system to determine if individuals respond to economic incentives for marriage. Aged widow(er) benefits are paid by the federal government to persons whose deceased spouses worked in Social Security covered employment. A widow(er) is eligible to receive benefits if she or he is at lease age 60. If a widow(er) remarries before age 60, she or he forfeits the benefit and, therefore, faces a marriage penalty. Under current law, there is no penalty if the remarriage occurs at 60 years of age or later. The Social Security rules on remarriage have changed over time. Only since 1979 have widow(er)s been allow to marry at or after age 60 and not face reductions in benefit amounts.

We investigate whether the age-60 remarriage rule affects the timing of marriage and whether the elimination of the marriage penalty in 1979 encouraged widows 60 or older to marry. For this study, we primarily use Vital Statistics data from the National Center for Health Statistics.

Our major findings are as follows. In 1979, there was an increase in the marriage rate of widows 60 or older. This suggests many widows in this age group chose not to marry until the marriage penalty they faced was removed. Also, in the post-1979 period, there was a drop in marriage rates immediately prior to age 60 and an increase after this age. We do not observe this pattern in the period before 1979, and we do not observe it for divorced women, who generally are not subject to the age-60 remarriage rule. These findings suggest that the age-60 remarriage rule affects the timing of marriage and has the most influence on women who are very close to age 60.

Reducing Poverty Among Elderly Women

Although the Social Security program has substantially reduced poverty among older Americans, 17.3 percent of nonmarried elderly women (widowed, divorced, or never married) are living in poverty today. This paper explores several policy options designed to reduce poverty by enhancing Social Security widow(er)'s benefits, Supplemental Security Income benefits, and Social Security's special minimum benefit. Depending on the option, 40 percent to 58 percent of the additional federal spending would be directed to the poor or near poor.

Analysis of Social Security Proposals Intended to Help Women: Preliminary Results

One aspect of the current debate about changing the Social Security program concerns how new rules might affect elderly women, many of whom have low income. This paper examines three possible changes: (1) a reduction in spousal benefits combined with a change in the computation of the survivor benefit, (2) a redefined minimum benefit, and (3) a 5 percent increase in benefits for persons aged 80 or older. The paper assesses the cost, distributional consequences, and antipoverty impact of each option.

Counting the Disabled: Using Survey Self-Reports to Estimate Medical Eligibility for Social Security's Disability Programs

This paper develops an approach for tracking medical eligibility for the Social Security Administration's (SSA's) disability programs on the basis of self-reports from an ongoing survey. Using a structural model of the disability determination process estimated on a sample of applicants, we make out-of-sample predictions of eligibility for nonbeneficiaries in the general population. This work is based on the 1990 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We use alternative methods of estimating the number of people who would be found eligible if they applied, considering the effects of sample selection adjustments, sample restrictions, and several methods of estimating eligibility/ineligibility from a set of continuous probabilities. The estimates cover a wide range, suggesting the importance of addressing methodological issues. In terms of classification rates for applicants, our preferred measure outperforms the conventional single variable model based on the "prevented" measure.

Under our preferred estimate, 4.4 million people—2.9 percent of the nonbeneficiary population aged 18–64—would meet SSA's medical criteria for disability. Of that group, about one-third have average earnings above the substantial gainful activity limit. Those we classify as medically eligible are similar to allowed applicants in terms of standard measures of activity limitations.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 63 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• The Impact of Repealing the Retirement Earnings Test on Rates of Poverty
• State and Local Pension Plans' Equity Holdings and Returns
• Social Security Privatization in Latin America
• What Stock Market Returns to Expect for the Future?

Earnings of Black and Nonblack Workers Who Died or Became Disabled in 1996 and 1997

Social Security solvency proposals may affect blacks as a group differently than those of other races because of differences in earnings, mortality, and rates of disability. To provide some background for understanding this issue, this note examines the earnings of workers by age and race, comparing those who recently died or became entitled to Social Security disability benefits with those still alive. It does not analyze any specific proposal for changing benefits.

Distribution of Zero-Earnings Years by Gender, Birth Cohort, and Level of Lifetime Earnings

This note uses data from the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) project to estimate the distribution of zero-earnings years by gender, birth cohort, and level of lifetime earnings from 1951 to 1996. The analysis is focused mainly on zero-earnings years that fall within a worker's highest 35 years of earnings, because only these years are used in the calculation of benefits.

Early Retirees Under Social Security: Health Status and Economic Resources

Some proposals to change the Social Security program to ensure long-run solvency would reduce or eliminate benefits to some early retirees. To what extent might those benefit reductions cause hardship for individuals with precarious financial circumstances and whose health appears to limit their ability to offset reductions in Social Security income through increased earnings? Our research is intended to identify the size and characteristics of the population that might be at risk as a consequence of such changes.

The central finding is that over 20 percent of early Social Security retirees have health problems that substantially impair their ability to work. In fact, among those aged 62–64 who are severely impaired, there are as many Old-Age and Survivors Insurance beneficiaries as there are beneficiaries under SSA's two disability programs. The retirement program functions as a substantial, albeit unofficial, disability program for this age group. Moreover, the majority of the most severely impaired early retirees would not qualify for Disability Insurance benefits.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 63 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• The Effect of Welfare Reform on SSA's Disability Programs: Design of Policy Evaluation and Early Evidence
• The Net Effects of the Project NetWork Return-to-Work Case Management Experiment on Participant Earnings, Benefit Receipt, and Other Outcomes
• Participation in Voluntary Individual Savings Accounts: An Analysis of IRAs, 401(k)s, and the TSP
• Attrition in the New Beneficiary Survey and Followup, and Its Correlates
• New Beneficiary Data System

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 62 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Projecting Retirement Income of Future Retirees with Panel Data: Results from the Modelng Income in the Near Term (MINT) Project
• Identifying the Race or Ethnicity of SSI Recipients
• Collecting Information on Disability in the 2000 Census: An Example of Interagency Cooperation

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 62 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Application of Experimental Poverty Measures to the Aged
• Using Data for Couples to Project the Distributional Effects of Changes in Social Security Policy
• Characteristics of Individuals with Integrated Pensions
• Improving Return-to-Work Strategies in the United States Disability Programs, with Analysis of Program Practices in Germany and Sweden
• Who Is "62 Enough"? Identifying Respondents Eligible for Social Security Early Retirement Benefits in the Health and Retirement Study

Model Income in the Near Term—Projections of Retirement Income Through 2020 for the 1931–60 Cohorts

Who Is "62 Enough": Identifying Eligibles for Social Security Early Retirement in the Health and Retirement Study

Either the normal retirement age (NRA) or the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for Social Security retirement benefits would be increased under many proposals for Social Security reform. As a consequence, research interest in who retires at early ages and the potential effects of an increase in the NRA or EEA has grown. This note discusses how well researchers can do using data from the Health and Retirement Study in identifying the pool of respondents who could have received early Social Security retirement benefits.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 62 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• The Distributional Effects of Changing the Averaging Period and Minimum Benefit Provisions
• Recent Changes in Earnings Distributions in the United States: Age and Cohort Effects
• The Development of the Project NetWork Administrative Records Database for Policy Evaluation
• Lifetime Redistribution Under the Social Security Program: A Literature Synopsis
• SSI At Its 25th Year
• Minorities and Social Security: An Analysis of Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Current Program
• Linkages With Data From Social Security Administrative Records in the Health and Retirement Study

Near Term Model Development, Part II

Linkages with Data from Social Security Administrative Records in the Health and Retirement Study ^*

The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a major longitudinal study designed for scientific and policy researchers for study of the economics, health, and demography of retirement and aging. The primary HRS sponsor is the National Institute of Aging, and the project is being conducted by the Survey Research Center of the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. Several agencies, including the Social Security Administration, are supporting the project. This is the second paper describing SSA's data support for the HRS. It describes the data from SSA records that have been released for linking to HRS data, linkage rates resulting from the consent process, and subgroup patterns in linkage rates.

Characteristics of Individuals with Integrated Pensions

Employer pensions that integrate benefits with Social Security have been the focus of relatively little research. Potentially this is an important omission given the current Social Security reform debate. Since changes in Social Security benefit levels and other program characteristics can affect the benefit levels and other features of integrated pension plans, it is important to know who is covered by these plans. This paper uses data from the Health and Retirement Survey to examine the characteristics of individuals who are covered under integrated pension plans by comparing them with people covered by non-integrated plans and those with no pension plan. The results show that individuals who are female, white, non-unionized, or do not have postgraduate education are significantly more likely to be in an integrated employer pension plan.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 62 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• Effect on Benefits of Earnings at Ages 65 or Older, 1995
• Industry, Occupation, and Disability Insurance Beneficiary Work Return
• Retirement Income Security in the United Kingdom
• The Galveston Plan and Social Security: A Comparative Analysis of Two Systems

Lifetime Redistribution Under the Social Security Program: A Literature Synopsis

This paper provides a brief overview of the more important studies of lifetime redistribution under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) programs. Studies are categorized into two types: those that focus on redistribution across successive cohorts of workers or typical members of those cohorts, and those that focus on the distribution of results across characteristics of interest within particular cohorts of workers. A list of related studies is provided at the end for those interested in additional reading.

Recent Changes in Earnings Distributions in the United States: Age and Cohort Effects

In this paper, the author uses large Social Security administrative data sets to examine changes in earnings distributions in the United States over the 1980s through the mid-1990s. Because the earnings information contained in these data sets comes directly from the W-2 forms filed by employers, the self-reporting errors and top-coding problems common in other data used for this type of analysis are minimized. Previous research has documented an increase in overall earnings inequality during the 1970s and the 1980s. The author finds that this upward trend in overall earnings inequality continues in the mid-1990s, despite a period of nearly constant or slightly decreased earnings inequality from 1988 through 1992. The data also suggest that between-group earnings inequality, whether dividing the sample into groups by age group or by birth cohort, is increasing. Despite the increase in between-group earnings inequality over the period examined, however, within-group earnings inequality remains by far the largest contributor to overall earnings inequality.

The Accuracy of Survey-Reported Marital Status: Evidence from Survey Records Matched to Social Security Records

Many researchers have concluded that, in surveys, divorced persons often fail to report accurate marital information. In this paper, I revisit this issue using a new source of data—surveys exactly matched to Social Security data. I find that divorced persons frequently misreport their marital status, but there is evidence that the misreporting is unintentional. A discussion of possible improvements in surveys is presented. Implications for the study of differential mortality and the study of poverty among aged women are discussed.

Projecting Immigrant Earnings: The Significance of Country of Origin

This paper asks whether information about immigrants other than their age, education, and years since migration can be productively used to project their earnings. Although many factors could affect immigrants' earnings, what is most useful for Social Security modeling purposes is relevant information that is readily available on a continuous basis. Country of origin is a good candidate as it is regularly and readily available from several administrative and survey data sources.

In this paper, microdata samples from the 1960–1990 censuses are used to examine the relationship between country of origin and the earnings of immigrants. By following cohorts of immigrants over 10-year intervals, we learn how country of origin affects the initial earnings of immigrants and how the relationship between country of origin and immigrants' earnings changes as immigrants live in the United States. The paper also presents theoretical insights and empirical evidence about the underlying causes of the link between country of origin and immigrants' earnings.

Retirement Income Security in the United Kingdom

This study examines the United Kingdom's retirement income security system from the American perspective. It addresses issues that most concern U.S. analysts: how the United Kingdom has kept its future public pension costs at a manageable level, the extent to which privatization of public pensions has contributed to these savings, the popular appeal of individual pension accounts, and the impact of privatization on retirement income. These issues are best understood in the context of the U.K. pension program's particular institutional structure and policies, two of which—"contracting out" of public pensions and strong reliance on means-tested benefits—have been largely rejected in the evolution of U.S. policy to date.

Particular use is made of recently available data on coverage rates for public and private pension programs over the total working population and administrative records on inactive personal pension accounts.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 61 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Noncitizens and the Supplemental Security Income Program
• Projecting Immigrant Earnings: The Significance of Country of Origin

Recent Changes in Earnings Distributions in the United States

In this paper I use large, Social Security administrative data sets to examine changes in earnings distributions in the U.S. over the 1980s and early-1990s. Because the earnings information contained in these data sets comes directly from the W-2 forms filed by employers, the self-reporting errors and top-coding problems common in other data used for this type of analysis are minimized. Previous research has documented an increase in overall earnings inequality during the 1970s and the 1980s. While I too find that overall earnings inequality generally increased during the early- to mid-1980s, I find that this upward trend in earnings inequality might have slowed, or reversed, during the late-1980s and early 1990s. I also find that within-group inequality for various race and gender subgroups of the population generally increased over the period examined, confirming the results of others and extending those findings into the early 1900s. Finally, I find that women's earnings increased relative to men's earnings over the entire period and that the earnings of black males declined relative to the earnings of the other groups examined.

Historical Redistribution Under the Social Security Disability Insurance Program

This study uses Social Security administrative data on historical taxes and benefits by year, age, gender, and race for an ex post analysis of redistribution under the Disability Insurance program. The relationship between the taxes paid and benefits received to date under the program is described for successive cohorts as a whole and for specific race and gender groups both within cohorts and across time.

Pension Integration and Social Security Reform

Many employer-provided pension plans explicitly account for Social Security in their benefit formulas—a practice known as integration. Because integrated pensions are directly linked to Social Security, both the incidence and design of explicitly integrated plans are likely to be affected by changes in the current Social Security program. While integration has been mentioned as an important issue in discussions of Social Security reform, researchers have largely ignored the concept of pension integration. This paper provides basic information about pension integration and addresses, in general terms, the relationship between Social Security reform and pension integration.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 61 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Historical Redistribution Under the Social Security Disability Insurance Program
• Pension Integration and Social Security Reform

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 61 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Return of Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries to the DI Program: Some Insights From the New Beneficiary Followup
• Recent Changes in Earnings Distributions in the United States

The Retirement Prospects of the Baby Boom Generation

This paper examines the financial prospects of the baby boomers in their elderly years. The paper primarily attempts to draw together and summarize results found by other researchers, but a few new estimates are presented. The consensus of the research appears to be the following. Up to this point, the baby boom generation as a whole has a higher economic status than their parents' generation did at the same ages, but this does not hold for some subgroups. When it becomes elderly, the baby boom generation as a whole probably will have a higher economic status than their parents' generation has and will have at those ages, but, again, this may not hold for some subgroups. It is uncertain whether the baby boom generation as a whole will have enough resources in retirement to maintain their preretirement standard of living without increasing their saving or retiring later, but some subgroups will be able to maintain their living standard without changing their behavior.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 61 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• The Retirement Prospects of the Baby Boom Generation
• SSI Case Closures
• Cost-Neutral Policies to Increase Social Security Benefits for Widows: A Simulation for 1992
• Social Security Beneficiaries Enrolled in the Direct Deposit Program, December 1996

The Economic Well-Being of Social Security Beneficiaries, with an Emphasis on Divorced Beneficiaries

There are numerous types of benefits paid under the Social Security programs of the United States, with each type of benefit having its own set of eligibility rules and benefit formula. It is likely that there is an association between the type of benefit a person receives and the economic circumstances of the beneficiary. This paper explores that association using records from the Current Population Survey exactly matched to administrative records from the Social Security Administration. Divorced beneficiaries are a particular focus of this paper.

Type of benefit is found to be a strong predictor of economic well-being. Two large groups of beneficiaries, retired-worker and aged married-spouse beneficiaries, are fairly well off. Other types of beneficiaries tend to resemble the overall U.S. population or are decidedly worse off. Divorced-spouse beneficiaries have an unusually high incidence of poverty and of serious health problems. A proposal to increase benefits for these beneficiaries is evaluated. Results indicate that much of the additional government expenditures would be received by those with low income.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 60 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• The Economic Well-Being of Social Security Beneficiaries, with an Emphasis on Divorced Beneficiaries
• Health Insurance Reform Legislation
• Social Security Benefits for Women Aged 62 or Older, December 1996
• Women Aged 65 or Older Receiving SSI Payments, December 1996

A Structural Model of Social Security's Disability Determination Process

We estimate a multistage sequential logit model reflecting the structure of the disability determination process of the Social Security Administration (SSA), as implemented by state Disability Determination Services (DDS) agencies. The model is estimated using household survey information exactly matched to SSA records on disability adjudications from 1989 to 1993. Information on health, activity limitations, demographic traits, and work is taken from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation. We also use information on occupational characteristics from the Directory of Occupational Titles, DDS workload pressure, and local area economic conditions from unpublished SSA sources. Under the program provisions, different criteria dictate the outcomes at different steps of the determination process. We find that without the multistage structural approach, the effects of many of the important health, disability, and vocational factors are not readily discernible. As a result, the split-sample predictions of overall allowance rates from the sequential model performed considerably better than the conventional approach based on a simple allowed/denied logit regression.

Social Security Programs in the United States

This publication presents a comprehensive picture of the vast network of programs under the Social Security Act and how they operate. The programs are grouped into four major areas: social insurance, health insurance and health services, assistance programs, and programs for specific groups (such as veterans, government employees, and railroad workers).

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 60 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Factors Affecting the Work Efforts of Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries
• The Work Incapacity and Reintegration Study: Results of the Initial Survey Conducted in the United States
• Interaction With Social Security of 1996 Civil Service Retirement System Annuitants

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 60 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Projecting Social Security Earnings: Past Is Prologue
• Life-Cycle Aspects of Poverty Among Older Women
• Retooling Social Security for the 21st Century
• The Civilian War Benefits Program: SSA's First Disability Program

Life-Cycle Aspects of Poverty Among Older Women

In this paper we focus on the relationship between a woman's economic status earlier in life and her poverty status in old age. Previous research on the determinants of poverty among aged women has documented the socioeconomic and demographic correlates of the poor and has examined the financial impact of adverse late-life events such as widowhood, deterioration of health, and loss of employment. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women, we find that most women who experience these types of adverse events in their later years do not become poor and that a large majority of older NLSMW respondents who were poor in 1991–92 were poor earlier in their adult lives. Whether women are impoverished by adverse late-life events depends on their economic resources just prior to the event. But the financial resources available in old age, in turn, depend very much on their long-term economic status throughout much of their adult lives. This article underscores the fact that for most older women these adverse events do not appear to precipitate poverty spells—at least not within the first couple of years—and directs attention at longer-term circumstances that make some women more vulnerable.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 60 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• Work While Receiving Disability Insurance Benefits: Additional Findings From the New Beneficiary Followup Survey
• Living Arrangements of SSI Recipients
• Case Management at Work for SSA Disability Beneficiaries: Process Results of the Project NetWork Return-to-Work Demonstration
• Cash Benefits For Short-Term Sickness, 1970–94

Family Unit Incomes of the Elderly and Children, 1994

The economic status of the elderly and the economic status of children are analyzed using a comprehensive definition of income that takes selected types of noncash income and taxes into account. Estimates are presented for detailed age groups over the entire age range and for socioeconomic classifications within the elderly subgroup and within the subgroup of children. The paper finds that children and the elderly are less well off than the middle age groups. This result is obtained using median incomes and the percentage of the group that has low income, as defined here. When results obtained with the measures presented in this paper are compared with results obtained with more commonly used measures, there are important differences for both the elderly and for children. For both groups, the composition of the low-income population differs in important ways from the composition of the official poverty population.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 59 No. 4

Includes articles on:

• Job Patterns of Disabled Beneficiaries
• The Economics of Retirement: A Nontechnical Guide

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 59 No. 3

Includes articles on:

• Pension Benefits Among the Aged: Conflicting Measures, Unequal Distributions
• Poverty Among Single Elderly Women Under Different Systems of Old-Age Security: A Comparative Review
• Privatizing Social Security: The Chilean Experience
• Major Welfare Reforms Enacted in 1996
• SSA Programs That Benefit Children

Social Security and Immigrant Earnings

Immigrant cohorts have varied over time in many ways that have important implications for projecting the contributions immigrants make to the Social Security system. Using immigrant cohorts in the 1970, 1980, and 1990 decennial censuses, we find that immigrant men experience faster earnings growth than native-born men and that there has been a large increase over time in immigrant earnings growth rates. Thus, recent reductions in immigrant entry earnings are significantly compensated for by faster immigrant earnings growth.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 59 No. 2

Includes articles on:

• Income Protection for the Aged in the 21st Century: A Framework to Help Inform the Debate
• Social Security and Immigrant Earnings
• Reinventing SSI Statistics: SSA's New Longitudinal File
• Program Legislation Enacted in Early 1996

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 59 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• Trends in the Characteristics of DI and SSI Disability Awardees and Duration of Program Participation
• Labor-Force Participation and Earnings of SSI Disability Recipients: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Time Series Approach to the Behavior of Individuals
• Deeming Rules and the Increase in the Number of Children With Disabilities Receiving SSI: Evaluating the Effects of a Regulatory Change
• State Optional Supplementation of SSI Payments, 1974–95

Incomes of the Elderly and Nonelderly, 1967–92

This paper examines the money incomes of the elderly and the nonelderly. The economic status of the elderly is put in perspective by discussing changes in real incomes since 1967 and the in