Outcome Variation in the Social Security Disability Insurance Program: The Role of Primary Diagnoses

by Javier Meseguer
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 73 No. 2, 2013
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Percentage of initial allowances, by state and Census division and region
Location Percent
South
West South Central 41.10
Arkansas 43.97
Louisiana 41.99
Oklahoma 38.93
Texas 40.82
East South Central 38.18
Alabama 39.83
Kentucky 38.12
Mississippi 39.87
Tennessee 35.93
South Atlantic 42.03
Delaware 57.66
Florida 41.39
Georgia 37.30
Maryland 47.24
North Carolina 41.89
South Carolina 41.07
Virginia 47.54
West Virginia 37.40
Northeast and Nonmainland
Middle Atlantic 50.51
New Jersey 56.11
New York 47.81
Pennsylvania 51.47
New England 55.48
Connecticut 52.51
Maine 51.69
Massachusetts 57.09
New Hampshire 62.34
Rhode Island 54.51
Vermont 53.20
Non-mainland 59.45
Alaska 51.81
Hawaii 62.46
Midwest
West North Central 52.12
Iowa 56.13
Kansas 47.74
Minnesota 54.78
Missouri 50.69
Nebraska 53.03
North Dakota 44.99
South Dakota 49.73
East North Central 45.31
Illinois 48.68
Indiana 40.49
Michigan 44.75
Ohio 42.91
Wisconsin 51.97
West
Pacific West 49.93
California 50.14
Oregon 48.28
Washington 49.94
Mountain West 48.41
Arizona 55.30
Colorado 38.46
Idaho 48.57
Montana 39.54
Nevada 58.88
New Mexico 48.73
Utah 41.61
Wyoming 38.84
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF.
NOTE: The black vertical lines indicate the percentage for each Census division.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Percentage of claimants, by body system
Body system Percent
Infectious 0.92
Neoplasms 9.97
Endocrine 3.88
Diseases of the blood 0.23
Mental disorders 16.76
Nervous system 8.48
Circulatory 11.68
Respiratory 4.12
Digestive 2.17
Genitourinary 1.60
Skin 0.21
Musculoskeletal 34.11
Congenital 0.06
Injuries 5.82
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Percentage of adjudicative disability categories, by body system
Body system Initial allowances Initial denials not appealed Final allowances Final denials
Infectious 58.50 16.67 17.45 7.39
Neoplasms 81.41 8.61 7.66 2.32
Endocrine 36.98 25.18 26.99 10.85
Diseases of the blood 59.33 16.48 16.67 7.52
Mental disorders 53.87 16.92 21.93 7.28
Nervous system 51.61 17.57 22.37 8.45
Circulatory 52.29 17.28 23.30 7.13
Respiratory 60.57 14.02 18.52 6.89
Digestive 38.94 23.08 27.55 10.43
Genitourinary 81.61 6.75 9.26 2.38
Skin 26.29 31.75 29.38 12.58
Musculoskeletal 29.26 23.32 33.90 13.52
Congenital 44.40 21.30 22.38 11.91
Injuries 30.75 31.32 24.63 13.30
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Number of claimants, by adjudicative disability category and single year of age
Age Initial allowances Initial denials not appealed Final allowances Final denials
18 153 67 7 12
19 347 105 20 31
20 583 167 39 40
21 839 274 63 51
22 986 334 71 70
23 1,054 421 113 113
24 1,118 542 177 131
25 999 652 231 192
26 883 689 265 241
27 897 827 333 270
28 966 895 415 315
29 988 870 502 357
30 1,075 999 627 425
31 1,179 1,168 765 471
32 1,322 1,277 920 568
33 1,421 1,330 990 621
34 1,569 1,426 1,170 703
35 1,741 1,654 1,305 807
36 1,855 1,825 1,566 895
37 2,054 2,001 1,735 984
38 2,312 2,124 1,971 1,144
39 2,485 2,236 2,205 1,179
40 2,690 2,408 2,377 1,375
41 2,881 2,535 2,724 1,427
42 3,133 2,576 2,971 1,489
43 3,479 2,794 3,144 1,599
44 3,626 2,767 3,512 1,595
45 3,856 2,705 3,721 1,693
46 4,060 2,813 3,901 1,892
47 4,253 2,932 4,127 1,944
48 4,572 2,913 4,366 1,895
49 5,078 2,930 4,985 1,739
50 6,027 2,694 5,086 1,636
51 6,757 2,789 5,165 1,693
52 7,183 2,792 5,201 1,666
53 7,542 2,799 5,404 1,490
54 8,202 2,736 5,747 1,358
55 10,453 2,416 5,161 1,161
56 11,016 2,216 4,921 1,132
57 11,451 2,282 4,577 1,142
58 11,788 2,210 4,629 1,083
59 12,120 2,183 4,482 1,011
60 13,098 2,441 4,353 1,013
61 12,662 2,542 3,658 928
62 14,343 5,546 3,069 1,227
63 8,426 2,439 1,344 522
64 6,442 1,764 808 368
65 1,887 691 189 121
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF.
Table equivalent for Chart 5. Percentage of adjudicative disability categories, by single year of age
Age 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 All
  Initial allowances
18 61.90 46.15 68.18 61.54 73.68 67.44 61.29 59.38 64.02
19 53.66 62.50 83.05 75.38 73.17 82.61 57.14 50.00 68.99
20 51.85 52.78 74.42 68.75 78.26 77.34 72.73 68.22 70.33
21 65.17 56.31 64.49 68.12 76.92 66.18 70.37 70.89 68.38
22 58.62 65.08 68.54 58.97 75.56 66.54 66.50 71.56 67.49
23 58.21 54.74 71.95 59.00 66.21 62.28 57.53 63.09 61.96
24 49.09 54.35 62.07 54.46 62.26 59.19 56.13 51.88 56.81
25 46.02 46.39 50.22 49.53 57.89 47.92 44.41 41.46 48.17
26 38.64 45.73 47.58 35.47 50.32 45.03 36.67 38.77 42.49
27 38.68 31.45 43.68 34.20 44.09 39.55 34.63 39.51 38.55
28 30.93 33.65 45.16 40.34 42.27 35.86 35.58 34.44 37.28
29 34.62 36.71 36.51 36.31 38.54 37.96 33.33 36.47 36.36
30 27.92 32.59 38.46 36.79 37.92 31.81 35.08 33.50 34.39
31 28.99 34.76 32.62 34.41 36.55 34.93 29.86 30.67 32.91
32 30.47 31.51 31.55 32.91 32.12 36.01 32.85 30.34 32.35
33 28.79 30.84 32.04 35.27 36.69 35.50 31.00 30.64 32.58
34 29.38 28.42 33.67 34.61 36.33 32.33 32.06 31.07 32.23
35 31.93 29.71 33.64 29.00 33.60 31.32 30.06 33.59 31.61
36 27.09 29.14 33.10 31.50 33.85 30.11 28.21 28.90 30.21
37 25.12 29.20 30.66 30.67 35.02 32.44 29.00 29.49 30.32
38 25.31 29.04 30.58 33.99 34.21 30.44 29.06 31.34 30.62
39 28.10 32.04 30.71 32.66 32.58 31.63 29.48 27.61 30.66
40 28.41 30.91 29.84 30.63 33.42 30.07 28.32 31.32 30.40
41 27.21 28.60 32.53 31.95 33.49 29.40 27.96 29.51 30.11
42 29.74 29.62 29.10 32.49 33.59 30.10 28.76 32.80 30.81
43 30.18 32.69 31.78 31.70 32.97 32.58 29.26 31.44 31.58
44 29.21 33.25 32.11 33.10 34.23 31.36 28.86 30.28 31.53
45 31.63 32.67 31.31 32.21 35.08 32.32 31.67 30.60 32.20
46 31.10 34.18 32.16 33.44 34.04 31.05 29.49 31.73 32.05
47 29.11 31.08 36.82 32.44 33.79 32.16 30.02 31.48 32.08
48 29.73 32.18 33.61 35.86 35.45 35.00 30.66 32.94 33.26
49 33.31 34.85 37.03 35.30 39.41 32.28 31.39 32.81 34.47
50 36.82 36.92 38.91 40.93 42.26 38.93 38.17 38.98 39.03
51 38.27 39.35 40.65 42.07 45.02 41.85 40.00 41.58 41.19
52 38.87 41.33 42.03 44.60 44.10 42.67 42.06 44.27 42.65
53 40.52 42.67 44.16 45.72 45.80 44.00 43.63 42.51 43.76
54 42.14 44.28 43.61 47.98 48.85 45.82 43.50 46.34 45.46
55 49.23 52.48 51.84 57.05 58.15 55.96 54.55 54.50 54.47
56 52.07 53.87 54.35 59.51 61.28 57.23 59.10 57.63 57.12
57 55.75 56.35 57.94 60.35 63.17 60.76 57.24 58.64 58.87
58 54.69 56.08 57.01 61.29 63.32 62.15 60.82 60.42 59.81
59 57.22 60.09 58.70 62.84 63.35 63.10 61.71 61.13 61.22
60 57.63 61.35 61.52 63.69 65.77 63.48 63.43 62.82 62.65
61 60.91 59.55 63.21 65.39 67.64 65.11 64.92 63.72 63.98
62 54.50 56.49 57.34 62.29 62.92 62.13 58.97 58.87 59.31
63 63.29 64.35 65.23 66.78 68.20 68.25 65.17 67.26 66.18
64 65.52 67.02 69.42 68.34 71.58 68.54 71.64 66.71 68.66
65 64.04 57.57 63.78 63.89 69.63 65.71 67.35 67.79 65.34
  Initial denails not appealed
18 38.10 38.46 22.73 30.77 18.42 23.26 32.26 31.25 28.03
19 31.71 25.00 13.56 13.85 20.73 14.13 28.57 27.94 20.87
20 35.19 27.78 15.12 22.32 16.67 14.84 20.45 19.63 20.14
21 22.47 28.16 25.36 23.91 17.31 25.49 21.16 18.35 22.33
22 35.63 20.63 21.91 31.41 16.89 22.43 23.30 19.91 22.86
23 26.12 29.93 17.07 29.00 22.53 24.20 27.03 23.61 24.75
24 33.33 27.17 25.00 30.99 24.53 27.41 26.77 28.20 27.54
25 26.70 30.41 32.47 27.57 25.08 34.82 31.31 40.42 31.44
26 31.82 27.64 27.75 39.32 30.00 33.92 34.81 38.41 33.16
27 37.45 37.10 32.18 38.53 32.28 32.03 42.39 34.35 35.54
28 39.52 33.65 30.00 33.45 29.45 36.65 36.20 37.46 34.54
29 30.77 25.52 34.29 33.43 32.55 30.10 34.76 33.82 32.02
30 30.77 31.01 29.34 31.35 28.18 37.76 30.31 36.55 31.96
31 35.90 30.48 32.62 30.25 29.98 29.60 33.60 38.88 32.60
32 31.70 28.54 30.86 27.64 32.30 31.19 32.30 34.46 31.25
33 33.52 28.29 30.41 25.85 26.81 27.83 33.39 36.66 30.49
34 27.76 29.81 28.50 25.87 27.81 30.74 31.91 31.39 29.29
35 27.29 29.56 29.32 28.70 27.89 31.87 32.72 32.98 30.03
36 30.00 29.28 26.34 27.50 28.96 30.37 30.61 34.60 29.72
37 32.37 28.93 25.90 28.52 28.08 29.57 29.57 34.05 29.54
38 28.14 26.44 28.91 26.88 25.78 27.71 28.85 32.92 28.13
39 25.39 30.32 24.65 26.15 25.61 29.04 27.33 32.41 27.59
40 29.41 24.04 26.64 25.86 27.15 26.85 28.67 28.80 27.21
41 26.19 25.22 25.16 26.49 24.38 26.54 28.81 28.84 26.50
42 24.70 23.77 22.40 25.37 25.25 26.55 27.10 26.56 25.33
43 25.22 23.45 23.33 24.30 24.58 26.03 27.91 27.24 25.36
44 22.90 23.55 22.06 21.73 23.65 23.55 26.93 27.29 24.06
45 21.38 21.37 22.70 21.79 21.37 22.62 23.32 25.52 22.59
46 23.33 19.25 22.97 22.42 20.86 22.34 22.49 23.65 22.21
47 21.89 22.83 19.42 20.72 20.22 22.54 23.00 25.48 22.12
48 21.27 21.18 19.61 20.26 20.84 20.93 21.78 23.22 21.19
49 19.24 18.34 16.36 18.50 18.68 21.32 21.77 23.55 19.89
50 17.73 18.58 15.41 16.68 16.19 17.46 16.34 20.62 17.44
51 16.66 16.11 17.01 15.34 15.56 16.44 18.38 20.00 17.00
52 15.28 17.94 16.90 15.30 16.81 15.88 17.38 16.97 16.58
53 16.82 15.32 14.60 15.73 15.72 16.26 16.25 18.72 16.24
54 14.67 14.51 15.22 13.81 13.91 15.17 17.07 16.36 15.16
55 13.25 11.66 12.49 12.41 11.98 11.18 13.51 14.11 12.59
56 12.24 11.41 11.35 10.72 10.05 11.06 11.36 13.33 11.49
57 11.81 10.90 10.97 11.12 11.54 10.72 12.68 13.25 11.73
58 11.52 12.66 10.76 10.02 11.23 10.22 10.88 12.49 11.21
59 11.88 10.91 11.29 10.21 10.06 11.24 10.90 11.83 11.03
60 13.02 12.01 12.08 11.24 10.74 11.98 10.72 12.03 11.68
61 13.47 13.99 12.92 11.40 11.99 12.51 11.92 14.63 12.84
62 24.86 24.24 24.03 21.83 21.42 20.95 23.34 23.18 22.93
63 20.14 19.80 18.35 18.21 19.21 17.91 20.10 19.50 19.16
64 21.60 20.29 16.73 19.14 16.10 18.00 17.28 21.38 18.80
65 23.97 25.99 22.60 26.85 22.09 24.21 22.60 23.78 23.93
  Final allowances
18 0.00 7.69 0.00 2.56 5.26 4.65 0.00 3.13 2.93
19 4.88 2.50 0.00 6.15 1.22 1.09 8.93 8.82 3.98
20 9.26 6.94 6.98 2.68 2.17 3.91 3.03 7.48 4.70
21 7.87 7.77 7.25 2.90 3.37 4.41 2.65 8.23 5.13
22 4.60 8.73 3.37 5.13 4.00 3.68 6.80 4.27 4.86
23 10.45 6.57 4.27 7.00 5.12 6.76 7.72 6.44 6.64
24 9.70 11.41 5.60 7.98 8.18 7.48 10.78 11.65 8.99
25 13.07 13.92 9.52 14.49 9.29 8.33 11.82 11.50 11.14
26 15.45 15.58 14.10 12.82 9.03 9.36 15.19 13.41 12.75
27 11.93 16.13 14.18 14.29 13.83 16.16 13.59 13.98 14.31
28 15.12 17.92 13.55 14.83 17.78 16.23 14.42 17.82 16.02
29 19.87 20.28 16.19 16.43 17.45 19.90 16.52 21.47 18.48
30 25.93 19.30 15.67 19.69 19.70 20.82 20.76 18.53 20.06
31 19.68 20.23 23.33 23.33 22.38 20.22 22.20 19.22 21.35
32 23.93 26.03 23.90 25.74 23.54 17.52 21.05 20.60 22.51
33 24.43 24.95 21.63 24.25 22.05 22.17 21.94 20.65 22.70
34 25.32 26.00 23.67 26.05 21.54 25.04 21.53 23.62 24.03
35 25.69 24.96 22.84 26.31 24.57 19.92 22.33 23.21 23.70
36 26.20 26.45 23.94 25.00 24.71 25.16 27.85 24.42 25.50
37 25.48 27.73 27.76 27.80 23.79 23.51 27.04 21.98 25.61
38 28.36 28.59 24.67 24.60 26.45 27.32 26.26 22.55 26.10
39 27.99 24.30 29.76 27.97 29.47 24.63 27.71 25.91 27.21
40 26.22 26.95 27.01 28.02 24.39 26.77 28.50 27.09 26.86
41 30.01 30.14 28.98 27.98 26.06 28.61 28.43 28.08 28.47
42 29.83 31.42 31.33 28.81 28.43 27.17 29.52 28.16 29.22
43 28.23 27.73 28.76 30.31 28.10 28.15 28.36 28.66 28.54
44 30.94 29.02 31.66 31.12 30.03 31.60 29.82 30.01 30.54
45 30.00 30.90 31.54 32.21 29.90 31.30 31.85 30.72 31.07
46 29.72 30.79 30.61 29.25 30.65 31.32 32.32 31.13 30.80
47 32.39 30.23 29.54 30.21 31.57 31.20 32.18 31.37 31.13
48 31.79 31.23 33.16 30.01 30.45 31.01 34.21 32.06 31.76
49 32.93 33.21 35.03 34.41 32.24 33.54 35.92 33.27 33.84
50 32.86 32.93 34.14 33.51 32.07 33.40 34.55 30.42 32.93
51 33.37 33.42 30.95 31.84 29.46 31.76 31.13 30.57 31.49
52 34.15 30.22 30.41 30.32 30.50 31.80 30.14 30.25 30.88
53 32.05 31.66 31.41 30.24 30.17 31.55 31.86 32.06 31.35
54 33.65 33.72 32.50 31.08 30.52 31.84 31.60 30.96 31.85
55 29.60 28.87 29.60 24.38 24.08 27.10 26.74 26.03 26.89
56 28.07 27.88 27.44 23.89 23.48 25.91 24.56 24.20 25.52
57 24.21 26.08 23.94 22.61 20.22 23.31 24.31 23.84 23.53
58 26.25 24.51 26.60 22.83 20.51 22.85 23.02 22.86 23.49
59 24.76 22.83 24.65 21.78 21.52 21.42 22.45 22.66 22.64
60 22.56 21.60 20.69 20.30 19.49 20.11 21.56 20.70 20.82
61 19.84 21.20 18.77 18.38 16.16 18.37 18.28 17.73 18.48
62 13.65 13.21 12.97 11.64 11.01 12.48 12.90 13.52 12.69
63 11.43 10.52 11.76 11.01 9.73 10.22 10.80 9.50 10.56
64 9.03 8.37 8.85 8.41 8.39 9.23 8.64 8.10 8.61
65 6.85 11.18 8.98 4.32 5.52 5.48 6.39 5.06 6.54
  Final denials
18 0.00 7.69 9.09 5.13 2.63 4.65 6.45 6.25 5.02
19 9.76 10.00 3.39 4.62 4.88 2.17 5.36 13.24 6.16
20 3.70 12.50 3.49 6.25 2.90 3.91 3.79 4.67 4.83
21 4.49 7.77 2.90 5.07 2.40 3.92 5.82 2.53 4.16
22 1.15 5.56 6.18 4.49 3.56 7.35 3.40 4.27 4.79
23 5.22 8.76 6.71 5.00 6.14 6.76 7.72 6.87 6.64
24 7.88 7.07 7.33 6.57 5.03 5.92 6.32 8.27 6.66
25 14.20 9.28 7.79 8.41 7.74 8.93 12.46 6.62 9.26
26 14.09 11.06 10.57 12.39 10.65 11.70 13.33 9.42 11.60
27 11.93 15.32 9.96 12.99 9.80 12.26 9.39 12.16 11.60
28 14.43 14.78 11.29 11.38 10.50 11.26 13.80 10.27 12.16
29 14.74 17.48 13.02 13.83 11.46 12.04 15.38 8.24 13.14
30 15.38 17.09 16.52 12.18 14.19 9.61 13.84 11.42 13.60
31 15.43 14.53 11.43 12.01 11.09 15.26 14.34 11.23 13.15
32 13.91 13.93 13.69 13.71 12.04 15.27 13.79 14.61 13.90
33 13.26 15.91 15.92 14.63 14.45 14.50 13.67 12.05 14.24
34 17.53 15.77 14.17 13.48 14.31 11.89 14.50 13.92 14.44
35 15.09 15.77 14.20 15.99 13.94 16.90 14.89 10.23 14.65
36 16.71 15.13 16.62 16.00 12.48 14.36 13.33 12.08 14.57
37 17.03 14.13 15.68 13.01 13.11 14.48 14.38 14.48 14.53
38 18.19 15.93 15.85 14.53 13.57 14.54 15.82 13.19 15.15
39 18.52 13.33 14.88 13.22 12.34 14.69 15.49 14.07 14.55
40 15.95 18.11 16.51 15.50 15.04 16.31 14.51 12.78 15.54
41 16.59 16.04 13.33 13.58 16.07 15.45 14.79 13.58 14.92
42 15.74 15.19 17.17 13.34 12.73 16.18 14.62 12.48 14.64
43 16.37 16.13 16.12 13.69 14.35 13.23 14.47 12.66 14.52
44 16.94 14.18 14.18 14.05 12.09 13.49 14.40 12.42 13.87
45 16.99 15.07 14.46 13.80 13.65 13.76 13.16 13.16 14.14
46 15.86 15.78 14.26 14.88 14.45 15.29 15.70 13.49 14.94
47 16.60 15.86 14.22 16.63 14.42 14.10 14.80 11.67 14.67
48 17.21 15.41 13.61 13.87 13.26 13.06 13.35 11.79 13.79
49 14.52 13.60 11.58 11.79 9.67 12.85 10.93 10.38 11.80
50 12.59 11.57 11.54 8.88 9.48 10.21 10.94 9.98 10.59
51 11.71 11.12 11.39 10.75 9.96 9.96 10.50 7.85 10.32
52 11.70 10.50 10.65 9.78 8.59 9.65 10.42 8.51 9.89
53 10.60 10.35 9.82 8.30 8.30 8.19 8.26 6.71 8.65
54 9.54 7.49 8.67 7.13 6.71 7.16 7.83 6.35 7.53
55 7.92 6.99 6.07 6.16 5.78 5.76 5.20 5.36 6.05
56 7.62 6.85 6.86 5.88 5.19 5.80 4.99 4.84 5.87
57 8.23 6.67 7.15 5.92 5.08 5.22 5.76 4.27 5.87
58 7.54 6.76 5.64 5.85 4.94 4.78 5.27 4.24 5.49
59 6.13 6.18 5.36 5.17 5.07 4.23 4.95 4.38 5.11
60 6.79 5.04 5.71 4.78 4.00 4.43 4.29 4.45 4.85
61 5.79 5.25 5.10 4.82 4.21 4.01 4.88 3.92 4.69
62 7.00 6.06 5.66 4.24 4.66 4.44 4.78 4.43 5.07
63 5.14 5.33 4.66 4.00 2.86 3.62 3.93 3.74 4.10
64 3.84 4.33 5.00 4.11 3.94 4.23 2.45 3.81 3.92
65 5.14 5.26 4.64 4.94 2.76 4.61 3.65 3.37 4.19
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF.
Table equivalent for Chart 6. Percentage of claimants, by selected body systems and single year of age
Age Neoplasms Mental disorders Nervous system and sense organs Circulatory Musculoskeletal
18 1.67 62.34 14.23 0.84 4.60
19 2.98 58.65 19.88 0.80 4.57
20 2.53 62.00 13.51 0.84 6.51
21 2.28 58.92 12.39 1.30 8.23
22 2.33 61.81 14.17 1.03 6.84
23 2.41 56.79 13.46 1.70 11.23
24 2.79 54.01 13.11 1.42 13.72
25 3.09 46.91 13.40 1.35 17.07
26 2.89 43.60 12.80 2.21 20.84
27 3.61 38.68 13.32 2.41 22.95
28 4.17 35.93 12.77 2.51 24.66
29 4.42 34.82 11.70 3.13 27.82
30 4.64 31.96 11.74 3.04 30.04
31 4.69 29.64 12.39 2.99 31.17
32 4.82 28.14 11.74 2.69 32.18
33 5.02 28.89 11.00 3.35 32.83
34 5.16 27.44 10.78 3.02 34.02
35 4.68 25.89 11.86 3.32 35.10
36 5.03 26.01 10.10 3.13 36.43
37 5.76 25.10 9.83 3.82 36.77
38 5.52 24.43 9.83 3.76 37.27
39 5.93 23.73 9.93 4.06 37.19
40 5.86 23.75 9.10 4.47 38.11
41 6.43 22.63 9.29 4.80 38.24
42 6.46 22.10 9.27 5.45 37.62
43 7.00 21.45 9.22 6.10 36.98
44 7.52 20.96 9.45 6.03 36.77
45 7.90 19.50 8.72 6.44 37.76
46 8.50 19.18 8.74 7.25 37.16
47 8.41 18.89 8.53 8.08 37.18
48 9.57 17.77 8.32 8.16 36.61
49 9.52 17.99 8.31 9.76 35.62
50 9.86 16.93 8.03 10.55 35.93
51 10.05 16.40 8.02 10.96 35.89
52 10.21 15.91 8.31 11.80 35.42
53 10.65 15.33 7.61 12.35 35.16
54 10.88 14.12 7.68 12.80 35.55
55 11.31 13.24 7.90 14.05 34.92
56 11.65 12.18 7.65 15.07 35.04
57 12.19 11.25 7.29 16.08 34.55
58 12.34 10.23 7.48 16.84 34.21
59 12.91 9.27 7.07 18.02 33.75
60 13.09 8.32 7.18 18.86 33.28
61 13.98 7.59 7.21 19.21 32.50
62 13.04 6.38 7.41 20.49 33.11
63 15.55 5.92 7.20 22.02 29.08
64 18.44 5.27 7.07 22.49 25.79
65 17.69 6.27 7.44 21.64 26.32
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF.
Table equivalent for Chart 7. Aggregate point and interval probability predictions for each adjudicative disability category, by single year of age
Age Actual 5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile
  Pooled: Initial allowances
18 64.02 60.23 61.10 61.97
19 68.99 57.85 58.67 59.48
20 70.33 55.38 56.14 56.91
21 68.38 53.00 53.71 54.43
22 67.49 50.69 51.36 52.03
23 61.96 48.69 49.31 49.93
24 56.81 46.45 47.03 47.61
25 48.17 45.11 45.65 46.18
26 42.49 43.14 43.64 44.14
27 38.55 41.76 42.22 42.68
28 37.28 40.47 40.90 41.33
29 36.36 39.31 39.71 40.12
30 34.39 38.29 38.67 39.05
31 32.91 37.25 37.61 37.97
32 32.35 36.14 36.48 36.82
33 32.58 35.22 35.55 35.87
34 32.23 34.29 34.60 34.91
35 31.61 33.53 33.83 34.13
36 30.21 32.82 33.11 33.40
37 30.32 32.53 32.82 33.10
38 30.62 31.91 32.19 32.47
39 30.66 31.55 31.83 32.10
40 30.40 31.34 31.61 31.88
41 30.11 31.46 31.73 32.00
42 30.81 31.46 31.73 31.99
43 31.58 31.78 32.05 32.32
44 31.53 32.14 32.41 32.68
45 32.20 32.72 32.99 33.26
46 32.05 33.38 33.65 33.92
47 32.08 34.02 34.29 34.57
48 33.26 35.08 35.36 35.63
49 34.47 36.35 36.63 36.90
50 39.03 37.75 38.03 38.30
51 41.19 39.43 39.71 39.99
52 42.65 41.39 41.67 41.94
53 43.76 43.24 43.52 43.79
54 45.46 45.31 45.59 45.87
55 54.47 47.74 48.02 48.30
56 57.12 50.50 50.78 51.05
57 58.87 53.07 53.35 53.63
58 59.81 55.88 56.16 56.45
59 61.22 58.56 58.85 59.14
60 62.65 61.52 61.81 62.10
61 63.98 64.43 64.73 65.02
62 59.31 66.30 66.62 66.93
63 66.18 70.36 70.66 70.96
64 68.66 72.68 72.99 73.30
65 65.34 73.74 74.08 74.42
  Pooled: Initial denials not appealed
18 28.03 31.03 31.87 32.72
19 20.87 32.13 32.93 33.73
20 20.14 33.17 33.93 34.69
21 22.33 34.06 34.76 35.47
22 22.86 34.66 35.32 35.97
23 24.75 34.91 35.53 36.14
24 27.54 35.10 35.68 36.25
25 31.44 34.50 35.04 35.57
26 33.16 34.28 34.79 35.28
27 35.54 33.60 34.07 34.54
28 34.54 32.70 33.13 33.57
29 32.02 31.87 32.28 32.69
30 31.96 30.94 31.33 31.71
31 32.60 30.10 30.47 30.83
32 31.25 29.29 29.64 29.99
33 30.49 28.48 28.82 29.15
34 29.29 27.73 28.05 28.36
35 30.03 26.98 27.29 27.60
36 29.72 26.20 26.50 26.80
37 29.54 25.47 25.76 26.06
38 28.13 24.80 25.09 25.38
39 27.59 24.19 24.47 24.75
40 27.21 23.62 23.90 24.17
41 26.50 22.95 23.22 23.49
42 25.33 22.41 22.68 22.95
43 25.36 21.88 22.15 22.41
44 24.06 21.38 21.64 21.90
45 22.59 20.89 21.14 21.39
46 22.21 20.49 20.73 20.98
47 22.12 20.14 20.39 20.63
48 21.19 19.73 19.97 20.20
49 19.89 19.29 19.53 19.76
50 17.44 18.92 19.15 19.37
51 17.00 18.51 18.73 18.95
52 16.58 18.11 18.32 18.54
53 16.24 17.79 18.00 18.20
54 15.16 17.37 17.58 17.78
55 12.59 16.87 17.07 17.27
56 11.49 16.38 16.57 16.77
57 11.73 15.94 16.14 16.33
58 11.21 15.43 15.62 15.82
59 11.03 14.97 15.17 15.36
60 11.68 14.39 14.58 14.78
61 12.84 13.79 13.99 14.19
62 22.93 13.71 13.92 14.14
63 19.16 12.35 12.56 12.76
64 18.80 11.87 12.08 12.30
65 23.93 12.00 12.24 12.48
  Pooled: Final allowances
18 2.93 2.86 3.01 3.17
19 3.98 3.53 3.69 3.87
20 4.70 4.26 4.44 4.64
21 5.13 5.03 5.23 5.44
22 4.86 5.96 6.18 6.41
23 6.64 6.95 7.19 7.43
24 8.99 8.13 8.38 8.64
25 11.14 9.41 9.68 9.96
26 12.75 10.75 11.03 11.32
27 14.31 12.18 12.47 12.77
28 16.02 13.79 14.09 14.40
29 18.48 15.23 15.54 15.85
30 20.06 16.75 17.05 17.37
31 21.35 18.21 18.51 18.82
32 22.51 19.72 20.03 20.33
33 22.70 21.14 21.44 21.74
34 24.03 22.56 22.86 23.15
35 23.70 23.84 24.13 24.43
36 25.50 25.22 25.51 25.80
37 25.61 26.24 26.53 26.82
38 26.10 27.43 27.73 28.02
39 27.21 28.44 28.73 29.03
40 26.86 29.29 29.58 29.88
41 28.47 30.07 30.37 30.66
42 29.22 30.80 31.10 31.39
43 28.54 31.31 31.61 31.90
44 30.54 31.77 32.07 32.36
45 31.07 32.08 32.37 32.67
46 30.80 32.20 32.50 32.79
47 31.13 32.27 32.57 32.86
48 31.76 32.14 32.43 32.73
49 33.84 31.86 32.16 32.45
50 32.93 31.41 31.69 31.98
51 31.49 30.77 31.05 31.33
52 30.88 29.87 30.14 30.42
53 31.35 28.95 29.21 29.48
54 31.85 27.92 28.18 28.44
55 26.89 26.68 26.94 27.19
56 25.52 25.14 25.39 25.63
57 23.53 23.63 23.87 24.11
58 23.49 21.98 22.21 22.45
59 22.64 20.32 20.55 20.79
60 20.82 18.55 18.78 19.01
61 18.48 16.79 17.01 17.23
62 12.69 15.28 15.50 15.72
63 10.56 13.35 13.56 13.77
64 8.61 11.86 12.08 12.29
65 6.54 10.77 10.98 11.20
  Pooled: Final denials
18 5.02 3.79 4.02 4.26
19 6.16 4.46 4.71 4.96
20 4.83 5.21 5.48 5.76
21 4.16 6.01 6.29 6.58
22 4.79 6.84 7.14 7.45
23 6.64 7.67 7.97 8.29
24 6.66 8.60 8.91 9.24
25 9.26 9.32 9.64 9.96
26 11.60 10.22 10.54 10.87
27 11.60 10.92 11.24 11.56
28 12.16 11.56 11.88 12.19
29 13.14 12.16 12.47 12.78
30 13.60 12.65 12.95 13.25
31 13.15 13.12 13.41 13.70
32 13.90 13.57 13.85 14.14
33 14.24 13.91 14.19 14.47
34 14.44 14.23 14.50 14.77
35 14.65 14.48 14.75 15.02
36 14.57 14.61 14.88 15.14
37 14.53 14.63 14.89 15.15
38 15.15 14.73 14.99 15.26
39 14.55 14.72 14.97 15.23
40 15.54 14.66 14.91 15.17
41 14.92 14.44 14.69 14.94
42 14.64 14.25 14.50 14.75
43 14.52 13.96 14.20 14.45
44 13.87 13.64 13.88 14.12
45 14.14 13.27 13.50 13.73
46 14.94 12.90 13.12 13.35
47 14.67 12.54 12.75 12.98
48 13.79 12.04 12.25 12.46
49 11.80 11.49 11.69 11.89
50 10.59 10.94 11.13 11.33
51 10.32 10.32 10.51 10.69
52 9.89 9.69 9.86 10.03
53 8.65 9.12 9.28 9.44
54 7.53 8.50 8.65 8.81
55 6.05 7.82 7.97 8.11
56 5.87 7.13 7.26 7.40
57 5.87 6.51 6.64 6.77
58 5.49 5.88 6.00 6.12
59 5.11 5.31 5.43 5.55
60 4.85 4.72 4.83 4.94
61 4.69 4.16 4.27 4.37
62 5.07 3.86 3.96 4.07
63 4.10 3.12 3.22 3.31
64 3.92 2.76 2.85 2.94
65 4.19 2.60 2.70 2.79
  Diagnosis: Initial allowances
18 64.02 61.13 66.65 71.61
19 68.99 63.33 67.88 72.18
20 70.33 61.23 65.56 69.68
21 68.38 58.07 62.35 66.47
22 67.49 60.84 64.30 67.69
23 61.96 54.71 57.94 61.18
24 56.81 50.57 53.91 57.21
25 48.17 45.55 48.69 51.90
26 42.49 40.60 43.62 46.71
27 38.55 37.23 40.24 43.27
28 37.28 35.59 38.39 41.27
29 36.36 34.12 36.73 39.41
30 34.39 32.31 34.91 37.54
31 32.91 30.92 33.42 35.94
32 32.35 29.72 32.08 34.53
33 32.58 30.31 32.54 34.82
34 32.23 29.62 31.75 33.93
35 31.61 28.93 30.98 33.08
36 30.21 28.03 29.96 31.97
37 30.32 28.63 30.55 32.54
38 30.62 28.04 29.92 31.86
39 30.66 28.39 30.27 32.22
40 30.40 28.21 30.05 31.95
41 30.11 28.95 30.82 32.73
42 30.81 29.40 31.27 33.19
43 31.58 30.04 31.93 33.88
44 31.53 30.95 32.84 34.78
45 32.20 31.31 33.19 35.12
46 32.05 32.31 34.23 36.18
47 32.08 32.98 34.92 36.89
48 33.26 34.68 36.67 38.69
49 34.47 36.30 38.30 40.33
50 39.03 37.31 39.34 41.38
51 41.19 39.02 41.09 43.16
52 42.65 40.68 42.75 44.83
53 43.76 42.51 44.62 46.73
54 45.46 44.57 46.67 48.76
55 54.47 46.87 49.02 51.17
56 57.12 49.26 51.42 53.57
57 58.87 51.71 53.90 56.06
58 59.81 54.22 56.43 58.61
59 61.22 56.70 58.95 61.17
60 62.65 59.38 61.69 63.96
61 63.98 61.79 64.19 66.54
62 59.31 61.90 64.52 67.08
63 66.18 66.83 69.56 72.19
64 68.66 69.03 71.99 74.80
65 65.34 67.70 71.32 74.75
  Diagnosis: Initial denials not appealed
18 28.03 21.41 26.31 31.91
19 20.87 20.55 24.86 29.57
20 20.14 21.47 25.60 30.15
21 22.33 23.46 27.61 32.16
22 22.86 21.84 25.38 29.16
23 24.75 25.78 29.34 33.06
24 27.54 27.24 30.88 34.72
25 31.44 29.57 33.27 37.07
26 33.16 31.51 35.07 38.80
27 35.54 32.16 35.69 39.39
28 34.54 31.62 35.01 38.53
29 32.02 31.33 34.46 37.75
30 31.96 30.98 33.99 37.20
31 32.60 30.53 33.43 36.53
32 31.25 29.87 32.66 35.64
33 30.49 28.53 31.10 33.85
34 29.29 27.72 30.18 32.81
35 30.03 26.85 29.21 31.74
36 29.72 26.48 28.74 31.16
37 29.54 25.22 27.40 29.74
38 28.13 24.59 26.71 28.99
39 27.59 23.59 25.68 27.91
40 27.21 23.01 25.01 27.15
41 26.50 21.99 23.93 26.01
42 25.33 21.25 23.19 25.27
43 25.36 20.54 22.44 24.48
44 24.06 19.76 21.60 23.58
45 22.59 19.32 21.09 22.99
46 22.21 18.72 20.46 22.34
47 22.12 18.29 20.00 21.85
48 21.19 17.64 19.32 21.14
49 19.89 16.96 18.58 20.33
50 17.44 16.64 18.23 19.94
51 17.00 16.18 17.73 19.41
52 16.58 15.86 17.39 19.05
53 16.24 15.49 17.00 18.65
54 15.16 15.03 16.50 18.08
55 12.59 14.60 16.07 17.68
56 11.49 14.31 15.77 17.36
57 11.73 13.99 15.47 17.06
58 11.21 13.64 15.12 16.73
59 11.03 13.40 14.91 16.57
60 11.68 13.07 14.64 16.35
61 12.84 12.82 14.46 16.26
62 22.93 13.64 15.50 17.54
63 19.16 11.99 13.88 15.99
64 18.80 11.61 13.67 16.00
65 23.93 12.27 14.87 17.85
  Diagnosis: Final allowances
18 2.93 1.93 3.07 4.82
19 3.98 2.29 3.44 5.07
20 4.70 3.00 4.31 6.22
21 5.13 3.42 4.87 6.89
22 4.86 3.73 5.11 6.93
23 6.64 4.74 6.24 8.21
24 8.99 5.92 7.63 9.81
25 11.14 7.34 9.20 11.50
26 12.75 9.11 11.12 13.57
27 14.31 10.63 12.77 15.34
28 16.02 12.33 14.56 17.15
29 18.48 13.83 16.06 18.62
30 20.06 15.42 17.66 20.20
31 21.35 16.79 19.03 21.59
32 22.51 18.34 20.64 23.21
33 22.70 19.52 21.73 24.19
34 24.03 20.92 23.11 25.50
35 23.70 22.37 24.56 26.94
36 25.50 23.58 25.73 28.03
37 25.61 24.55 26.68 28.98
38 26.10 25.68 27.83 30.14
39 27.21 26.59 28.74 31.05
40 26.86 27.50 29.63 31.90
41 28.47 28.20 30.32 32.58
42 29.22 28.73 30.89 33.19
43 28.54 29.22 31.40 33.72
44 30.54 29.61 31.77 34.06
45 31.07 30.07 32.19 34.45
46 30.80 30.14 32.26 34.52
47 31.13 30.31 32.43 34.68
48 31.76 29.90 32.03 34.29
49 33.84 29.68 31.77 34.00
50 32.93 29.51 31.57 33.78
51 31.49 28.93 30.97 33.16
52 30.88 28.21 30.21 32.36
53 31.35 27.35 29.33 31.46
54 31.85 26.48 28.39 30.45
55 26.89 25.20 27.10 29.15
56 25.52 23.80 25.65 27.64
57 23.53 22.27 24.08 26.04
58 23.49 20.70 22.47 24.40
59 22.64 18.94 20.69 22.59
60 20.82 17.07 18.80 20.70
61 18.48 15.26 16.96 18.85
62 12.69 13.90 15.67 17.64
63 10.56 11.46 13.17 15.14
64 8.61 9.63 11.35 13.36
65 6.54 8.86 10.76 13.09
  Diagnosis: Final denials
18 5.02 2.31 3.97 6.46
19 6.16 2.36 3.82 5.95
20 4.83 2.93 4.53 6.87
21 4.16 3.46 5.17 7.62
22 4.79 3.59 5.22 7.40
23 6.64 4.64 6.47 8.76
24 6.66 5.65 7.59 10.03
25 9.26 6.80 8.84 11.38
26 11.60 8.13 10.18 12.74
27 11.60 9.14 11.30 13.89
28 12.16 9.89 12.04 14.60
29 13.14 10.69 12.75 15.17
30 13.60 11.45 13.45 15.78
31 13.15 12.11 14.12 16.46
32 13.90 12.63 14.62 16.88
33 14.24 12.78 14.62 16.72
34 14.44 13.17 14.96 16.98
35 14.65 13.49 15.26 17.25
36 14.57 13.85 15.58 17.49
37 14.53 13.70 15.36 17.22
38 15.15 13.86 15.54 17.40
39 14.55 13.67 15.31 17.13
40 15.54 13.72 15.31 17.08
41 14.92 13.37 14.94 16.67
42 14.64 13.10 14.65 16.38
43 14.52 12.70 14.23 15.93
44 13.87 12.31 13.79 15.44
45 14.14 12.09 13.53 15.12
46 14.94 11.66 13.05 14.61
47 14.67 11.29 12.65 14.17
48 13.79 10.66 11.98 13.46
49 11.80 10.09 11.35 12.76
50 10.59 9.66 10.86 12.21
51 10.32 9.06 10.22 11.51
52 9.89 8.53 9.65 10.90
53 8.65 7.98 9.05 10.25
54 7.53 7.44 8.44 9.57
55 6.05 6.83 7.80 8.91
56 5.87 6.23 7.15 8.20
57 5.87 5.67 6.56 7.58
58 5.49 5.12 5.97 6.96
59 5.11 4.62 5.45 6.42
60 4.85 4.07 4.87 5.82
61 4.69 3.60 4.39 5.34
62 5.07 3.46 4.31 5.35
63 4.10 2.63 3.39 4.37
64 3.92 2.23 2.99 3.98
65 4.19 2.15 3.05 4.29
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF and model estimates.
Table equivalent for Chart 8. Aggregate point and interval probability predictions for an initial allowance, by earnings: Hawaii compared with West Virginia
Earnings Hawaii West Virginia
Actual 5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile Actual 5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile
  State
Marginal 57.10 47.37 54.59 61.54 28.14 27.00 29.82 32.75
Low 57.31 54.84 60.22 65.44 38.02 33.21 35.62 38.08
Average 64.20 60.68 65.13 69.56 40.36 38.92 41.21 43.55
High 73.02 64.08 68.70 73.08 43.95 41.52 43.98 46.43
Very high 67.71 65.08 70.80 75.73 45.70 44.19 47.11 50.05
  Diagnosis
Marginal 57.10 41.33 43.69 46.04 28.14 30.06 32.35 34.72
Low 57.31 43.63 45.64 47.65 38.02 36.17 38.16 40.22
Average 64.20 52.83 54.68 56.52 40.36 42.05 43.94 45.87
High 73.02 59.05 60.84 62.59 43.95 45.87 48.18 50.60
Very high 67.71 62.91 65.22 67.42 45.70 50.07 52.75 55.39
  Pooled
Marginal 57.10 38.99 39.33 39.68 28.14 35.52 35.85 36.19
Low 57.31 44.49 44.77 45.06 38.02 42.62 42.90 43.18
Average 64.20 50.88 51.15 51.41 40.36 49.23 49.49 49.75
High 73.02 56.01 56.30 56.58 43.95 53.68 53.96 54.22
Very high 67.71 58.77 59.11 59.44 45.70 58.37 58.69 58.99
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF and model estimates.
Table equivalent for Chart 9. Linear predictions compared with probabilities in the diagnosis model
Diagnosis Linear prediction Probability
Initial allowance Initial denial not appealed Final allowance Initial allowance Initial denial not appealed Final allowance
1 1.4255 1.0552 0.8749 0.3988 0.2754 0.2300
2 2.9709 0.9092 1.4879 0.7115 0.0905 0.1615
3 -0.5453 0.9054 0.7369 0.0944 0.4026 0.3402
4 1.7564 0.5300 1.5041 0.4458 0.1308 0.3464
5 1.7606 0.4861 0.8939 0.5342 0.1493 0.2245
6 0.9883 0.4373 0.9167 0.3473 0.2002 0.3233
7 1.3841 0.8934 0.9296 0.4004 0.2451 0.2542
8 2.9502 0.5885 1.6261 0.7079 0.0667 0.1883
9 3.5957 0.8566 1.6920 0.8058 0.0521 0.1201
10 1.5853 0.4898 1.3051 0.4357 0.1457 0.3293
11 5.5099 0.4811 2.1617 0.9563 0.0063 0.0336
12 4.4896 0.8931 1.4753 0.9194 0.0252 0.0451
13 3.5638 0.7229 1.2960 0.8402 0.0490 0.0870
14 3.1343 1.1446 1.2431 0.7512 0.1027 0.1134
15 5.5386 0.3854 2.0682 0.9608 0.0056 0.0299
16 4.5540 0.7481 1.5360 0.9245 0.0206 0.0452
17 5.8964 0.8579 1.9788 0.9717 0.0063 0.0193
18 3.4906 0.8390 1.4155 0.8153 0.0575 0.1024
19 4.7648 0.9894 1.6882 0.9280 0.0213 0.0428
20 4.2633 0.7189 1.4742 0.9054 0.0262 0.0557
21 4.5575 0.7719 1.8359 0.9100 0.0207 0.0598
22 3.7943 0.8751 1.8639 0.8186 0.0442 0.1188
23 3.5494 1.1826 1.2203 0.8197 0.0769 0.0798
24 4.5138 0.9873 1.4253 0.9209 0.0271 0.0420
25 2.6023 1.0755 1.1203 0.6585 0.1431 0.1496
26 2.5323 1.2910 0.7336 0.6519 0.1884 0.1079
27 2.8185 0.7036 1.3971 0.7034 0.0849 0.1698
28 3.0745 0.7756 1.5304 0.7352 0.0738 0.1570
29 3.5243 0.9792 0.9910 0.8422 0.0661 0.0669
30 3.9832 0.6982 1.6436 0.8677 0.0325 0.0836
31 4.4569 0.7405 1.6470 0.9123 0.0222 0.0549
32 3.3674 0.5415 1.6268 0.7879 0.0467 0.1382
33 2.0246 0.9463 1.2430 0.5182 0.1763 0.2371
34 3.3935 0.6123 1.6043 0.7920 0.0491 0.1323
35 3.1107 0.9816 1.5222 0.7311 0.0870 0.1493
36 6.2423 0.7532 2.1031 0.9785 0.0040 0.0156
37 2.9574 0.8059 1.1561 0.7500 0.0872 0.1238
38 2.3795 1.0901 1.2397 0.5924 0.1632 0.1895
39 4.1822 0.7823 2.3445 0.8279 0.0276 0.1318
40 4.1237 1.1261 1.8247 0.8573 0.0428 0.0860
41 1.4916 0.6157 1.2593 0.4108 0.1711 0.3257
42 1.9348 0.6486 1.3892 0.4999 0.1381 0.2897
43 -0.4068 0.6244 0.8607 0.1129 0.3166 0.4010
44 -0.4092 0.4930 0.9050 0.1150 0.2836 0.4281
45 0.2917 0.6300 0.9636 0.1958 0.2746 0.3833
46 0.5549 0.8187 0.8908 0.2339 0.3045 0.3273
47 0.9129 0.5528 1.2669 0.2838 0.1980 0.4043
48 1.5592 1.0780 0.9977 0.4169 0.2577 0.2378
49 2.8013 0.4885 1.6242 0.6813 0.0674 0.2099
50 0.8639 0.6623 0.9755 0.2979 0.2435 0.3331
51 -0.0208 0.5952 0.7900 0.1633 0.3024 0.3675
52 3.3567 0.6977 1.4212 0.8005 0.0560 0.1155
53 2.2174 0.4810 1.3133 0.5917 0.1042 0.2396
54 1.4624 0.8496 1.5637 0.3472 0.1881 0.3842
55 1.2071 0.3673 0.9830 0.3952 0.1707 0.3159
56 2.3083 0.9095 1.2407 0.5917 0.1461 0.2034
57 3.9143 0.1901 1.5091 0.8816 0.0213 0.0796
58 1.9444 0.9982 1.0181 0.5189 0.2014 0.2055
59 0.5969 0.8469 1.1484 0.2188 0.2809 0.3798
60 0.7785 0.8282 1.4584 0.2230 0.2344 0.4402
61 1.6740 0.4911 0.9615 0.5040 0.1544 0.2472
62 3.1525 0.6961 1.9591 0.6985 0.0599 0.2118
63 2.9788 1.0347 1.4266 0.7114 0.1018 0.1507
64 1.6689 0.7303 1.2590 0.4458 0.1744 0.2959
65 2.9211 0.6674 1.8007 0.6734 0.0707 0.2196
66 1.6442 0.5681 1.1993 0.4598 0.1567 0.2947
67 1.2864 0.8569 0.7075 0.4020 0.2616 0.2253
68 -3.5170 0.7940 -0.0786 0.0071 0.5310 0.2219
69 -2.4512 1.3134 0.4242 0.0136 0.5872 0.2413
70 2.4288 0.8682 2.1787 0.4815 0.1011 0.3750
71 2.4319 0.6342 1.3998 0.6212 0.1029 0.2213
72 0.3927 0.3564 0.3473 0.2782 0.2682 0.2658
73 0.0438 1.1127 0.1959 0.1657 0.4827 0.1930
74 3.1629 1.0069 1.8617 0.6992 0.0810 0.1903
75 0.6009 0.6643 1.0050 0.2432 0.2591 0.3643
76 2.4490 0.7606 1.3485 0.6235 0.1152 0.2074
77 2.7228 0.8279 1.5428 0.6565 0.0987 0.2017
78 2.8352 0.6300 1.9283 0.6358 0.0701 0.2567
79 5.1275 0.5377 2.4918 0.9193 0.0093 0.0659
80 3.4105 0.5514 1.8348 0.7709 0.0442 0.1595
81 1.8441 0.9088 1.5597 0.4342 0.1704 0.3267
82 2.6819 0.6281 1.7615 0.6269 0.0804 0.2497
83 2.9262 0.7434 1.3706 0.7260 0.0818 0.1532
84 0.1745 0.6225 0.6186 0.2014 0.3153 0.3141
85 0.4940 0.6209 1.0085 0.2263 0.2570 0.3786
86 0.8589 0.4841 0.9649 0.3103 0.2133 0.3450
87 -0.2708 0.4239 0.7313 0.1421 0.2846 0.3870
88 1.7227 0.4488 1.4394 0.4522 0.1265 0.3406
89 0.9494 0.3454 1.0510 0.3289 0.1798 0.3641
90 2.7259 0.3963 1.7500 0.6495 0.0632 0.2448
91 1.8103 1.0158 1.0554 0.4795 0.2167 0.2254
92 2.4379 0.8870 1.4777 0.5945 0.1261 0.2276
93 0.9650 0.5676 0.5745 0.3663 0.2462 0.2479
94 0.4462 0.9674 0.7641 0.2128 0.3584 0.2925
95 0.9102 0.7731 0.9194 0.3045 0.2655 0.3074
96 2.3226 0.5973 0.9639 0.6522 0.1162 0.1676
97 2.6057 0.7974 1.4756 0.6407 0.1050 0.2070
98 0.3738 0.7848 0.9036 0.2043 0.3081 0.3470
99 0.6278 0.4463 1.0492 0.2570 0.2143 0.3916
100 -0.5637 0.8371 0.2567 0.1100 0.4466 0.2500
101 1.7588 0.3867 0.2354 0.6083 0.1543 0.1326
102 0.2780 0.7247 1.1261 0.1768 0.2764 0.4129
103 0.2938 0.4810 0.9654 0.2037 0.2457 0.3987
104 1.7324 0.5270 1.2297 0.4805 0.1439 0.2906
105 -1.3295 0.6126 0.6210 0.0532 0.3712 0.3744
106 0.2722 0.5883 1.1391 0.1814 0.2488 0.4316
107 1.0143 0.5078 1.4804 0.2810 0.1693 0.4478
108 0.4273 0.8751 1.0879 0.1941 0.3037 0.3757
109 0.6999 0.8911 1.2652 0.2239 0.2710 0.3940
110 0.9249 0.3401 1.3425 0.2880 0.1605 0.4373
111 3.1341 0.8115 1.7279 0.7212 0.0707 0.1767
112 0.2359 0.6605 1.1141 0.1747 0.2671 0.4203
113 1.6293 0.4439 1.3200 0.4473 0.1367 0.3283
114 0.2399 0.3690 1.0674 0.1919 0.2183 0.4389
115 2.5022 0.8015 1.7129 0.5819 0.1062 0.2642
116 2.5538 0.6314 1.3962 0.6501 0.0951 0.2043
117 1.2527 0.6697 1.3982 0.3333 0.1860 0.3855
118 2.6217 0.5216 1.6945 0.6286 0.0770 0.2487
119 2.4669 0.7488 1.2361 0.6425 0.1153 0.1877
120 1.1840 0.2829 1.6151 0.3076 0.1249 0.4733
121 0.9095 0.3599 1.0093 0.3242 0.1871 0.3582
122 2.4202 0.7823 1.4031 0.6079 0.1182 0.2199
123 1.7981 0.5482 1.3392 0.4798 0.1375 0.3032
124 -0.5839 0.4061 0.8895 0.1015 0.2733 0.4431
125 2.0086 0.5490 1.2084 0.5507 0.1280 0.2474
126 0.0903 0.4936 0.7080 0.1899 0.2843 0.3522
127 1.8673 0.5798 1.1893 0.5159 0.1424 0.2619
128 2.2478 0.3080 1.3400 0.6050 0.0870 0.2441
129 -0.0898 0.5137 1.1675 0.1344 0.2458 0.4727
130 -0.2665 0.5007 0.7871 0.1365 0.2939 0.3914
131 0.9037 0.5096 0.9441 0.3205 0.2161 0.3337
132 0.8540 0.5023 1.0292 0.3011 0.2118 0.3588
133 1.0260 0.8081 0.9963 0.3191 0.2566 0.3098
134 -0.9953 0.4493 0.6647 0.0757 0.3211 0.3983
135 -0.6013 0.4679 1.0998 0.0891 0.2597 0.4885
136 0.7590 0.6215 1.2764 0.2489 0.2170 0.4176
137 0.2700 0.5714 0.9196 0.1988 0.2687 0.3807
138 0.1546 0.8234 1.0403 0.1604 0.3131 0.3890
139 1.7152 0.6671 1.0970 0.4832 0.1694 0.2604
140 1.5443 0.8322 1.1995 0.4145 0.2034 0.2936
141 2.3262 0.6936 1.6860 0.5494 0.1074 0.2896
142 4.7175 0.9290 2.2196 0.8978 0.0203 0.0739
143 0.2719 0.8357 0.9796 0.1802 0.3167 0.3657
144 1.6940 0.8930 1.1732 0.4491 0.2016 0.2668
145 0.5720 0.8370 1.3719 0.1963 0.2559 0.4369
146 1.0598 1.2029 1.1637 0.2770 0.3196 0.3073
147 0.6437 0.6102 0.8760 0.2664 0.2576 0.3361
148 1.6238 0.4927 1.3804 0.4341 0.1401 0.3403
149 1.8513 0.6515 1.4722 0.4667 0.1406 0.3194
150 0.8487 0.4454 1.0519 0.3011 0.2011 0.3689
151 0.6002 0.7505 1.0004 0.2379 0.2765 0.3550
152 1.2994 0.7663 1.4244 0.3341 0.1961 0.3787
153 0.0342 0.3564 1.0777 0.1617 0.2231 0.4590
154 -0.2533 0.4930 0.7201 0.1420 0.2994 0.3757
155 1.9072 0.9662 1.2637 0.4844 0.1891 0.2546
156 0.7110 0.6702 1.0136 0.2628 0.2523 0.3557
157 0.2513 0.3058 0.7150 0.2261 0.2387 0.3594
158 2.1363 0.4416 1.2507 0.5834 0.1071 0.2406
159 1.7112 0.8240 1.3525 0.4365 0.1797 0.3049
160 0.4230 0.8557 1.1392 0.1907 0.2940 0.3903
161 1.5018 0.5529 1.4592 0.3894 0.1507 0.3731
162 -0.3194 0.1850 0.7423 0.1444 0.2392 0.4176
163 1.6678 0.2554 0.7941 0.5406 0.1317 0.2257
164 2.9417 1.0594 1.5284 0.6904 0.1051 0.1680
165 0.0059 0.8068 0.6412 0.1637 0.3646 0.3090
166 0.7937 0.8438 0.9062 0.2761 0.2902 0.3089
167 0.0664 0.7962 0.8546 0.1610 0.3341 0.3542
168 0.4230 1.1230 1.0748 0.1790 0.3604 0.3434
169 -1.2547 0.5817 0.4708 0.0610 0.3827 0.3425
170 1.6828 0.9795 1.0745 0.4494 0.2224 0.2446
171 1.6742 0.7212 1.4896 0.4159 0.1604 0.3458
172 1.7420 0.5073 1.2730 0.4781 0.1391 0.2991
173 0.2889 0.7989 0.6780 0.2045 0.3406 0.3018
174 0.7693 0.4656 0.6906 0.3199 0.2361 0.2957
175 1.0476 0.7422 0.9107 0.3379 0.2490 0.2946
176 1.8896 0.6019 0.9796 0.5466 0.1508 0.2200
177 0.3495 0.2845 1.2874 0.1924 0.1803 0.4916
178 0.7690 1.0672 1.0344 0.2430 0.3275 0.3169
179 1.0604 0.8088 0.8895 0.3371 0.2621 0.2841
180 2.9155 0.9914 1.1391 0.7302 0.1066 0.1236
181 -1.1134 0.9013 0.4581 0.0611 0.4584 0.2943
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF and model estimates.
Table equivalent for Chart 10. Lung cancer versus disorders of the back, by earnings: Linear predictions compared with probabilities
Earnings Linear prediction Probability
Disorders of the back Lung cancer
Disorders of the back Lung cancer Actual 5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile Actual 5th percentile 50th percentile 95th percentile
  Initial allowances
Marginal -0.4281 4.5062 0.1463 0.1266 0.1543 0.1848 0.9187 0.8163 0.9073 0.9656
Low -0.1087 4.6767 0.1962 0.1668 0.1939 0.2229 0.9356 0.8736 0.9325 0.9719
Average 0.2088 4.8333 0.2691 0.2273 0.2571 0.2882 0.9524 0.8941 0.9437 0.9765
High 0.5267 4.9950 0.3061 0.2791 0.3141 0.3504 0.9607 0.9017 0.9494 0.9800
Very high 0.8451 5.1514 0.3645 0.3443 0.3876 0.4317 0.9462 0.8999 0.9515 0.9832
  Final allowances
Marginal 0.7033 1.4730 0.3307 0.2964 0.3414 0.3890 0.0362 0.0132 0.0455 0.1021
Low 0.9607 1.6072 0.3956 0.3408 0.3799 0.4205 0.0372 0.0130 0.0376 0.0784
Average 1.2195 1.7442 0.4011 0.3656 0.4027 0.4409 0.0309 0.0121 0.0337 0.0695
High 1.4780 1.8800 0.4130 0.3785 0.4180 0.4587 0.0238 0.0111 0.0331 0.0696
Very high 1.7368 2.0218 0.4085 0.3689 0.4128 0.4582 0.0336 0.0094 0.0332 0.0749
SOURCE: Author's calculations based on a 10 percent random sample of the DRF and model estimates.