Factors Affecting Initial Disability Allowance Rates for the Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income Programs: The Role of the Demographic and Diagnostic Composition of Applicants and Local Labor Market Conditions

by Kalman Rupp
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 72 No. 4, 2012
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Estimated marginal difference (evaluated at the mean) between the probability of allowance for applicants with an SSA primary diagnosis, compared with the reference group of applicants with a musculoskeletal disease as the primary diagnosis
SSA primary diagnosis Adult group SSI child
DI-only SSI-only Concurrent
Infectious and parasitic 0.40 0.31 0.46 0.20
Neoplasms 0.46 0.49 0.55 0.55
Endocrine 0.08 0.08 0.10 -0.02
Blood 0.29 0.21 0.33 0.13
Mental a 0.30 0.34 0.35 0.23
Intellectual disability b 0.49 0.57 0.56 0.53
Nervous 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.23
Circulatory 0.17 0.15 0.22 0.09
Respiratory 0.27 0.13 0.25 -0.21
Digestive 0.14 0.12 0.19 0.10
Genitourinary 0.47 0.50 0.59 0.06
Skin 0.06 0.00 0.09 -0.13
Congenital 0.23 0.48 0.21 0.37
Other primary 0.03 0.33 0.18 0.47
Unknown -0.21 -0.23 -0.16 -0.08
Missing 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.12
SOURCES: Data are based on 1,736,554 initial disability determinations in the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the 1993–2008 period, taken from SSA's National Disability Determination Services System File. State unemployment rate data are taken from the Current Population Survey.
a. Not including intellectual disability.
b. Intellectual disability was formerly known as mental retardation.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Estimated effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate on the probability of allowance (evaluated at the mean), by SSA program group and model specification
Model Adult group SSI child
DI-only SSI-only Concurrent
1 -0.030 -0.027 -0.030 -0.024
2 -0.032 -0.031 -0.031 -0.024
3 -0.036 -0.029 -0.034 -0.023
SOURCES: Data are based on 1,736,554 initial disability determinations in the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the 1993–2008 period, taken from SSA's National Disability Determination Services System File. State unemployment rate data are taken from the Current Population Survey.
a. Includes state and year fixed effects and the state unemployment rate.
b. Adds demographic characteristic predictors.
c. Adds primary diagnosis indicators and a variable indicating the presence of a secondary diagnosis.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Estimated effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate on the probability of allowance, by SSA primary diagnosis
SSA primary diagnosis Adult group SSI child
DI-only SSI-only Concurrent
Infectious and parasitic 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Neoplasms -0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000
Endocrine -0.033 -0.038 -0.041 -0.024
Blood 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Mental a -0.048 -0.042 -0.048 -0.029
Intellectual disability b -0.038 -0.019 -0.040 -0.035
Musculoskeletal -0.049 -0.045 -0.039 0.000
Nervous -0.026 -0.020 -0.029 0.000
Circulatory -0.029 -0.038 -0.034 0.000
Respiratory -0.020 -0.014 -0.029 0.000
Digestive -0.014 -0.020 -0.038 0.000
Genitourinary -0.027 0.000 0.000 0.000
Skin 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Congenital 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Other primary 0.000 0.000 -0.068 0.000
Unknown -0.013 0.000 0.000 0.000
Missing -0.031 -0.013 0.000 0.000
SOURCES: Data are based on 1,736,554 initial disability determinations in the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the 1993–2008 period, taken from SSA's National Disability Determination Services System File. State unemployment rate data are taken from the Current Population Survey.
NOTE: Chart displays only estimates that are statistically different from zero at the 0.95 level of confidence.
a. Not including intellectual disability.
b. Intellectual disability was formerly known as mental retardation.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Estimated average allowance rate, by state and SSA program group, 1993–2008
State Adult group SSI child
DI-only SSI-only Concurrent
AK 0.51 0.40 0.38 0.64
AL 0.39 0.26 0.24 0.31
AR 0.44 0.25 0.26 0.35
AZ 0.46 0.37 0.35 0.48
CA 0.46 0.33 0.32 0.53
CO 0.40 0.30 0.26 0.50
CT 0.47 0.31 0.27 0.39
DC 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.52
DE 0.54 0.44 0.39 0.41
FL 0.38 0.32 0.28 0.39
GA 0.34 0.27 0.25 0.32
HI 0.54 0.44 0.41 0.63
IA 0.49 0.29 0.26 0.39
ID 0.43 0.33 0.29 0.50
IL 0.47 0.29 0.29 0.37
IN 0.40 0.28 0.27 0.37
KS 0.45 0.28 0.25 0.41
KY 0.37 0.27 0.23 0.43
LA 0.41 0.28 0.29 0.29
MA 0.56 0.41 0.36 0.47
MD 0.46 0.27 0.27 0.43
ME 0.50 0.33 0.29 0.46
MI 0.41 0.30 0.27 0.36
MN 0.50 0.37 0.32 0.51
MO 0.47 0.25 0.24 0.33
MS 0.36 0.22 0.24 0.27
MT 0.43 0.31 0.26 0.44
NC 0.39 0.31 0.26 0.38
ND 0.47 0.34 0.26 0.43
NE 0.49 0.31 0.26 0.41
NH 0.57 0.53 0.46 0.47
NJ 0.55 0.37 0.37 0.43
NM 0.43 0.30 0.28 0.46
NV 0.53 0.40 0.39 0.56
NY 0.49 0.34 0.32 0.38
OH 0.42 0.28 0.25 0.36
OK 0.38 0.30 0.26 0.40
OR 0.45 0.32 0.27 0.56
PA 0.47 0.30 0.29 0.46
RI 0.52 0.36 0.33 0.42
SC 0.38 0.29 0.27 0.35
SD 0.45 0.29 0.28 0.42
TN 0.35 0.25 0.23 0.33
TX 0.42 0.34 0.31 0.42
UT 0.41 0.36 0.28 0.61
VA 0.46 0.36 0.33 0.40
VT 0.56 0.42 0.36 0.55
WA 0.48 0.35 0.32 0.55
WI 0.49 0.28 0.27 0.36
WV 0.36 0.23 0.21 0.37
WY 0.43 0.35 0.31 0.42
SOURCE: Data are based on 1,736,554 initial disability determinations in the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the 1993–2008 period, taken from SSA's National Disability Determination Services System File.
NOTE: The allowance rate for each state is calculated as the average allowance probability during the 1993–2008 period.