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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase Benefits for Older Beneficiaries

Details: Primary insurance amount (PIA) increase is phased-in starting at 81 and by 85 is equal to 5 percent of the average retired-worker PIA in the year the beneficiary turns 80

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
Male 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 12% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 24% 0% 0% 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Country of birth
United States 0% 23% 0% 0% 3%
Other countries 0% 15% 0% 0% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 76% 0% 2% 5%
90 or older 0% 100% 3% 4% 7%
Marital status
Married 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Widowed 0% 42% 0% 0% 4%
Never married 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 27% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Associate 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%
High school 0% 23% 0% 0% 3%
Less than high school 0% 19% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
In poverty 0% 13% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 26% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Middle 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Second lowest 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Lowest 0% 20% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 42% 0% 0% 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 26% 0% 0% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 32% 0% 0% 4%
Sex
Female 0% 36% 0% 0% 4%
Male 0% 27% 0% 0% 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 22% 0% 0% 4%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 36% 0% 0% 4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 31% 0% 0% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 33% 0% 0% 4%
Other countries 0% 28% 0% 0% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 81% 0% 3% 6%
90 or older 0% 99% 2% 3% 6%
Marital status
Married 0% 25% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Widowed 0% 60% 0% 2% 5%
Never married 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 33% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 36% 0% 0% 4%
Associate 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
High school 0% 32% 0% 0% 5%
Less than high school 0% 20% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 32% 0% 0% 4%
In poverty 0% 25% 0% 0% 9%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 33% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 29% 0% 0% 3%
Middle 0% 32% 0% 0% 4%
Second lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 4%
Lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 29% 0% 0% 4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 57% 0% 2% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 27% 0% 0% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Sex
Female 0% 33% 0% 0% 5%
Male 0% 27% 0% 0% 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 23% 0% 0% 4%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 34% 0% 0% 4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 27% 0% 0% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Other countries 0% 30% 0% 0% 5%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 78% 0% 2% 6%
90 or older 0% 99% 2% 3% 7%
Marital status
Married 0% 24% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 28% 0% 0% 4%
Widowed 0% 61% 0% 2% 6%
Never married 0% 21% 0% 0% 4%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 31% 0% 0% 3%
Bachelor 0% 38% 0% 0% 4%
Associate 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
High school 0% 27% 0% 0% 5%
Less than high school 0% 22% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
In poverty 0% 26% 0% 0% 11%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 28% 0% 0% 3%
Second highest 0% 28% 0% 0% 3%
Middle 0% 30% 0% 0% 4%
Second lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 5%
Lowest 0% 32% 0% 0% 7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 28% 0% 0% 4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 53% 0% 1% 5%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Male 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 37% 0% 0% 2%
90 or older 0% 58% 0% 1% 3%
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Widowed 0% 25% 0% 0% 2%
Never married 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
High school 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Less than high school 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Lowest 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 28% 0% 0% 2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Sex
Female 0% 24% 0% 0% 2%
Male 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Other countries 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 51% 0% 1% 3%
90 or older 0% 57% 0% 1% 3%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
Widowed 0% 38% 0% 0% 3%
Never married 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 18% 0% 0% 1%
Associate 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
High school 0% 25% 0% 0% 2%
Less than high school 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
In poverty 0% 23% 0% 0% 7%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 27% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 2%
Lowest 0% 30% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 18% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 39% 0% 0% 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Sex
Female 0% 25% 0% 0% 3%
Male 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 22% 0% 0% 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 20% 0% 0% 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Other countries 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 52% 0% 1% 4%
90 or older 0% 67% 0% 1% 5%
Marital status
Married 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
Widowed 0% 43% 0% 0% 4%
Never married 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 23% 0% 0% 2%
High school 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Less than high school 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
In poverty 0% 24% 0% 0% 9%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 27% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 32% 0% 0% 3%
Lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 40% 0% 0% 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 17% 0% 0% 1%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,404 -60 -1%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,919 -39 -2%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,486 -21 -1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 663 -8 -1%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,901 -42 -2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 571 -5 -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 269 -3 -1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,443 -42 -1%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 961 -18 -1%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,653 -2 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,341 -4 0%
80–89 3% 2% 417 373 -44 -10%
90 or older 2% 1% 46 38 -8 -18%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 635 -10 -1%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,165 -9 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 779 -34 -4%
Never married 16% 16% 832 825 -6 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 86 -4 -4%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 314 -8 -2%
Associate 4% 4% 694 688 -6 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,562 -30 -1%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 754 -10 -1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 98% 3,465 3,404 -60 -1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,326 -29 -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 5% 664 641 -22 -3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 181 -8 -4%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,782 3,604 -177 -4%
Sex
Female 5% 4% 2,099 1,974 -124 -5%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,630 -52 -3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,022 -36 -3%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,649 -92 -5%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 657 621 -35 -5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 312 -13 -4%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,394 -116 -4%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,210 -60 -4%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,402 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,322 -14 -1%
80–89 4% 4% 873 756 -116 -13%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 124 -45 -26%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 694 -17 -2%
Divorced 7% 6% 1,070 993 -76 -7%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 769 -47 -5%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,148 -35 -3%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 163 -6 -3%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 327 -16 -4%
Associate 3% 3% 630 602 -27 -4%
High school 6% 6% 1,694 1,608 -85 -5%
Less than high school 12% 12% 944 903 -40 -4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 95% 3,782 3,604 -177 -4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 4% 2,839 2,707 -132 -4%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 471 -37 -7%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 210 -8 -3%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 216 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,658 -164 -5%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,427 -99 -6%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,231 -64 -4%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 963 911 -52 -5%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,048 -76 -6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 4% 426 405 -20 -4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 309 293 -15 -4%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,664 -105 -5%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 994 -58 -5%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 942 -3 0%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,050 -7 0%
80–89 3% 2% 628 511 -117 -18%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 155 -36 -19%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 449 -20 -4%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 654 -32 -4%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 428 -58 -12%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,127 -52 -4%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 140 -16 -10%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 204 -11 -5%
Associate 2% 2% 460 428 -31 -6%
High school 4% 4% 1,229 1,155 -74 -6%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 731 -30 -3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 94% 2,822 2,658 -164 -5%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,070 -127 -5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 2% 314 279 -34 -11%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 154 -2 -1%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 37% 0% 0% 2% 6% 145% 450% 6% 146% 456%
Sex
Female 0% 47% 0% 1% 2% 26% 182% 644% 26% 185% 653%
Male 0% 27% 0% 0% 1% 0% 119% 266% 0% 120% 269%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 162% 569% 0% 163% 577%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 15% 140% 406% 15% 142% 412%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 30% 0% 0% 2% 0% 149% 473% 0% 151% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 37% 0% 0% 2% 0% 146% 508% 0% 146% 518%
Country of birth
United States 0% 37% 0% 0% 2% 12% 141% 416% 12% 142% 420%
Other countries 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 0% 164% 599% 0% 166% 612%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 44% 0% 0% 1% 23% 125% 264% 23% 126% 267%
Bachelor 0% 43% 0% 0% 2% 22% 137% 362% 22% 138% 370%
Associate 0% 37% 0% 0% 2% 12% 146% 393% 12% 148% 397%
High school 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 153% 519% 0% 155% 527%
Less than high school 0% 25% 0% 0% 2% 0% 161% 803% 0% 162% 819%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 34% 0% 0% 1% 39% 108% 157% 39% 109% 160%
Second highest 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 24% 134% 201% 24% 135% 205%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 14% 160% 270% 14% 162% 274%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 23% 228% 504% 23% 230% 511%
Lowest 0% 30% 0% 0% 3% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 256% 1,577%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 36% 0% 0% 1% 47% 108% 152% 47% 109% 154%
Second highest 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 25% 136% 202% 25% 137% 205%
Middle 0% 40% 0% 0% 2% 15% 161% 267% 15% 163% 271%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 18% 218% 454% 18% 221% 458%
Lowest 0% 28% 0% 0% 3% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 313% 1,595%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 56% 115% 194% 56% 116% 196%
Second highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 36% 139% 269% 36% 140% 273%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 19% 160% 363% 19% 161% 368%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 6% 185% 516% 6% 187% 524%
Lowest 0% 25% 0% 0% 3% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 207% 1,150%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 129% 404% 0% 130% 410%
Sex
Female 0% 42% 0% 0% 2% 0% 156% 570% 0% 158% 580%
Male 0% 27% 0% 0% 1% 0% 110% 275% 0% 111% 280%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 31% 0% 0% 2% 0% 133% 447% 0% 134% 459%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 38% 0% 0% 2% 11% 130% 403% 11% 132% 410%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 27% 0% 0% 1% 0% 130% 355% 0% 131% 365%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 104% 383% 0% 105% 391%
Country of birth
United States 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 6% 130% 369% 6% 131% 375%
Other countries 0% 31% 0% 0% 2% 0% 125% 602% 0% 125% 611%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 41% 0% 0% 1% 17% 113% 278% 17% 114% 284%
Bachelor 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 5% 117% 311% 5% 118% 319%
Associate 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 133% 348% 0% 135% 356%
High school 0% 33% 0% 0% 2% 0% 143% 533% 0% 144% 540%
Less than high school 0% 24% 0% 0% 2% 0% 133% 627% 0% 134% 635%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 34% 0% 0% 1% 40% 96% 138% 40% 97% 140%
Second highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 31% 128% 192% 31% 129% 195%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 26% 157% 271% 26% 159% 275%
Second lowest 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 220% 568% 0% 222% 576%
Lowest 0% 23% 0% 0% 3% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 121% 2,137%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 36% 0% 0% 1% 42% 96% 137% 42% 97% 139%
Second highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 39% 129% 194% 39% 131% 197%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 24% 159% 274% 24% 160% 279%
Second lowest 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 0% 215% 505% 0% 218% 512%
Lowest 0% 19% 0% 0% 3% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 95% 2,223%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 38% 0% 0% 1% 46% 99% 163% 46% 100% 165%
Second highest 0% 43% 0% 0% 1% 44% 131% 267% 44% 132% 270%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0% 2% 35% 158% 359% 35% 160% 365%
Second lowest 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 0% 188% 575% 0% 190% 583%
Lowest 0% 16% 0% 0% 4% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 38% 1,061%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 0% 120% 357% 0% 121% 365%
Sex
Female 0% 46% 0% 1% 3% 5% 145% 519% 5% 147% 525%
Male 0% 32% 0% 0% 2% 0% 103% 246% 0% 103% 249%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 0% 125% 401% 0% 126% 412%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 43% 0% 0% 2% 17% 120% 343% 17% 122% 350%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 30% 0% 0% 2% 0% 118% 333% 0% 119% 336%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 41% 0% 0% 2% 0% 105% 349% 0% 106% 360%
Country of birth
United States 0% 40% 0% 0% 2% 9% 120% 319% 9% 121% 325%
Other countries 0% 36% 0% 0% 3% 0% 121% 565% 0% 122% 581%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 48% 0% 1% 2% 21% 109% 259% 21% 110% 268%
Bachelor 0% 46% 0% 1% 2% 13% 110% 278% 13% 111% 283%
Associate 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 0% 124% 318% 0% 125% 325%
High school 0% 35% 0% 0% 2% 0% 129% 441% 0% 131% 448%
Less than high school 0% 28% 0% 0% 2% 0% 125% 594% 0% 126% 606%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 39% 0% 0% 1% 40% 88% 127% 40% 89% 129%
Second highest 0% 48% 0% 1% 2% 34% 118% 177% 34% 120% 180%
Middle 0% 45% 0% 0% 2% 30% 144% 246% 30% 146% 251%
Second lowest 0% 36% 0% 0% 3% 9% 196% 466% 9% 199% 473%
Lowest 0% 26% 0% 0% 4% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 124% 1,749%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 42% 0% 0% 1% 43% 89% 127% 43% 90% 129%
Second highest 0% 47% 0% 0% 2% 38% 119% 179% 38% 120% 182%
Middle 0% 44% 0% 0% 2% 27% 144% 249% 27% 146% 253%
Second lowest 0% 38% 0% 0% 3% 13% 192% 442% 13% 194% 450%
Lowest 0% 24% 0% 0% 4% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 125% 1,806%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 43% 0% 0% 1% 45% 91% 145% 45% 92% 148%
Second highest 0% 48% 0% 0% 2% 46% 122% 227% 46% 123% 231%
Middle 0% 46% 0% 0% 2% 31% 140% 302% 31% 141% 308%
Second lowest 0% 37% 0% 0% 3% 11% 172% 532% 11% 175% 535%
Lowest 0% 20% 0% 0% 4% 0% 80% 996% 0% 80% 1,008%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 43% 0% 0% 2% 0% 125% 366% 0% 126% 375%
Sex
Female 0% 50% 0% 1% 3% 1% 149% 531% 1% 151% 542%
Male 0% 36% 0% 0% 2% 0% 107% 252% 0% 108% 257%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 0% 129% 400% 0% 131% 408%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 47% 0% 1% 2% 21% 126% 363% 21% 127% 369%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 32% 0% 0% 2% 0% 121% 306% 0% 122% 309%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 48% 0% 1% 2% 0% 113% 335% 0% 114% 348%
Country of birth
United States 0% 44% 0% 0% 2% 11% 125% 324% 11% 127% 330%
Other countries 0% 38% 0% 0% 3% 0% 123% 516% 0% 124% 527%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 50% 0% 1% 2% 30% 116% 286% 30% 117% 293%
Bachelor 0% 51% 0% 1% 2% 9% 115% 300% 9% 116% 304%
Associate 0% 44% 0% 0% 2% 0% 129% 325% 0% 131% 332%
High school 0% 39% 0% 0% 2% 0% 133% 439% 0% 134% 445%
Less than high school 0% 30% 0% 0% 2% 0% 129% 578% 0% 130% 587%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 45% 0% 0% 1% 45% 95% 133% 45% 96% 135%
Second highest 0% 53% 0% 1% 1% 43% 124% 181% 43% 125% 184%
Middle 0% 48% 0% 1% 2% 23% 149% 251% 23% 151% 255%
Second lowest 0% 40% 0% 0% 3% 0% 208% 500% 0% 211% 509%
Lowest 0% 27% 0% 0% 4% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 124% 1,574%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 45% 0% 0% 1% 46% 95% 133% 46% 96% 135%
Second highest 0% 52% 0% 1% 1% 44% 123% 182% 44% 125% 186%
Middle 0% 49% 0% 1% 2% 30% 149% 254% 30% 151% 258%
Second lowest 0% 41% 0% 0% 3% 2% 202% 466% 2% 206% 474%
Lowest 0% 25% 0% 0% 4% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 125% 1,614%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 48% 0% 0% 1% 50% 98% 152% 50% 99% 155%
Second highest 0% 52% 0% 1% 2% 46% 125% 235% 46% 126% 238%
Middle 0% 50% 0% 1% 2% 36% 146% 316% 36% 148% 321%
Second lowest 0% 42% 0% 0% 3% 8% 183% 543% 8% 186% 551%
Lowest 0% 21% 0% 0% 4% 0% 73% 797% 0% 73% 807%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 42% 72%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 36% 54%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 24% 47% 82%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 45% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 26% 51% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 81%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 46% 78%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 21% 41% 74%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 79%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 74%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 28% 50% 87%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 30% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 116%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 50% 66% 102%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 83%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 80%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 53% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 24% 45% 85%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 77%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 81%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 77%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 51% 87%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 16% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 74% 125%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 34% 48%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 24% 39% 59%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 67%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 53% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 56% 73% 118%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 84%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 26% 50% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 81%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 52% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 83%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 79%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 82%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 89%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 55% 82%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 57% 75% 133%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 58%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 38% 54% 84%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 74% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 16% 35% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 62%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 72%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 53% 85%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 67% 108%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: ELDBEN OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2025.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B6.3.