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Research Note #21:
The Original Actuarial Projections for the Social Security Act of 1935

This table is from the actuarial estimate done by Robert J. Myers of the Committee on Economic Security, based on final Congressional action on the 1935 legislation. The 1980 reserve figure computed by Myers (approximately $47 billion) has been widely quoted, but the full table itself has never been published. A manuscript of Myers’ original calculations is available in the Social Security Administration History Archives, and this table is from that manuscript.


Table: Long-Range Actuarial Projections for 1935 Act
($ in millions)

Year

Tax Receipts

Benefit Payments

Interest

Reserve Balance

1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

511.0
515.9
520.9
803.3
811.0
818.6
1121.4
1131.8
1142.2
1440.6
1453.6
1466.6
1775.5
1791.1
1806.6
1822.2
1837.8
1853.4
1869.0
1884.5
1900.1
1915.7
1931.3
1946.8
1962.5
1978.0
1993.5
2009.1
2024.7
2040.3
2055.8
2071.5
2087.0
2102.6
2118.1
2133.8
2149.3
2164.9
2180.5
2180.5
2180.5
2180.5
2180.5
2180.5

3.7
10.7
18.2
25.7
33.7
71.9
116.5
169.2
213.2
285.2
343.7
411.1
473.0
537.9
622.3
690.6
762.9
854.7
920.8
1032.4
1117.6
1231.4
1329.6
1430.2
1551.2
1652.2
1728.3
1813.2
1874.7
1982.0
2065.3
2162.3
2252.0
2355.0
2462.0
2570.6
2686.5
2810.0
2934.1
3058.3
3184.3
3318.8
3446.8
3575.8

0.0
15.2
30.8
46.8
71.6
97.1
122.4
156.2
189.7
223.4
264.4
305.9
346.7
396.2
445.7
494.6
543.4
591.9
639.7
687.3
733.5
779.0
822.8
865.6
907.0
946.6
984.8
1022.3
1059.4
1095.1
1129.7
1163.3
1195.4
1226.4
1255.6
1282.9
1308.3
1331.5
1352.0
1370.0
1384.8
1396.2
1403.9
1408.1

507.3
1027.7
1561.3
2385.8
3234.7
4078.5
5205.7
6324.5
7443.3
8822.0
10196.3
11557.7
13207.0
14856.3
16486.5
18112.8
19731.1
21321.7
22909.6
24449.0
25965.0
27428.2
28852.8
30235.0
31553.2
32825.6
34075.6
35293.8
36503.2
37656.5
38776.7
39849.2
40879.7
41853.7
42765.4
43611.5
44382.6
45069.1
45667.5
46159.8
46540.8
46798.7
46936.3
46949.1

 

Larry DeWitt
SSA Historian's Office
April 7, 2005
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